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Jan 6

Using Sequences of Life-events to Predict Human Lives

Over the past decade, machine learning has revolutionized computers' ability to analyze text through flexible computational models. Due to their structural similarity to written language, transformer-based architectures have also shown promise as tools to make sense of a range of multi-variate sequences from protein-structures, music, electronic health records to weather-forecasts. We can also represent human lives in a way that shares this structural similarity to language. From one perspective, lives are simply sequences of events: People are born, visit the pediatrician, start school, move to a new location, get married, and so on. Here, we exploit this similarity to adapt innovations from natural language processing to examine the evolution and predictability of human lives based on detailed event sequences. We do this by drawing on arguably the most comprehensive registry data in existence, available for an entire nation of more than six million individuals across decades. Our data include information about life-events related to health, education, occupation, income, address, and working hours, recorded with day-to-day resolution. We create embeddings of life-events in a single vector space showing that this embedding space is robust and highly structured. Our models allow us to predict diverse outcomes ranging from early mortality to personality nuances, outperforming state-of-the-art models by a wide margin. Using methods for interpreting deep learning models, we probe the algorithm to understand the factors that enable our predictions. Our framework allows researchers to identify new potential mechanisms that impact life outcomes and associated possibilities for personalized interventions.

  • 8 authors
·
Jun 5, 2023

Multi-Layer Deep xVA: Structural Credit Models, Measure Changes and Convergence Analysis

We propose a structural default model for portfolio-wide valuation adjustments (xVAs) and represent it as a system of coupled backward stochastic differential equations. The framework is divided into four layers, each capturing a key component: (i) clean values, (ii) initial margin and Collateral Valuation Adjustment (ColVA), (iii) Credit/Debit Valuation Adjustments (CVA/DVA) together with Margin Valuation Adjustment (MVA), and (iv) Funding Valuation Adjustment (FVA). Because these layers depend on one another through collateral and default effects, a naive Monte Carlo approach would require deeply nested simulations, making the problem computationally intractable. To address this challenge, we use an iterative deep BSDE approach, handling each layer sequentially so that earlier outputs serve as inputs to the subsequent layers. Initial margin is computed via deep quantile regression to reflect margin requirements over the Margin Period of Risk. We also adopt a change-of-measure method that highlights rare but significant defaults of the bank or counterparty, ensuring that these events are accurately captured in the training process. We further extend Han and Long's (2020) a posteriori error analysis to BSDEs on bounded domains. Due to the random exit from the domain, we obtain an order of convergence of O(h^{1/4-epsilon}) rather than the usual O(h^{1/2}). Numerical experiments illustrate that this method drastically reduces computational demands and successfully scales to high-dimensional, non-symmetric portfolios. The results confirm its effectiveness and accuracy, offering a practical alternative to nested Monte Carlo simulations in multi-counterparty xVA analyses.

  • 2 authors
·
Feb 20, 2025

Detecting Line Segments in Motion-blurred Images with Events

Making line segment detectors more reliable under motion blurs is one of the most important challenges for practical applications, such as visual SLAM and 3D reconstruction. Existing line segment detection methods face severe performance degradation for accurately detecting and locating line segments when motion blur occurs. While event data shows strong complementary characteristics to images for minimal blur and edge awareness at high-temporal resolution, potentially beneficial for reliable line segment recognition. To robustly detect line segments over motion blurs, we propose to leverage the complementary information of images and events. To achieve this, we first design a general frame-event feature fusion network to extract and fuse the detailed image textures and low-latency event edges, which consists of a channel-attention-based shallow fusion module and a self-attention-based dual hourglass module. We then utilize two state-of-the-art wireframe parsing networks to detect line segments on the fused feature map. Besides, we contribute a synthetic and a realistic dataset for line segment detection, i.e., FE-Wireframe and FE-Blurframe, with pairwise motion-blurred images and events. Extensive experiments on both datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. When tested on the real dataset, our method achieves 63.3% mean structural average precision (msAP) with the model pre-trained on the FE-Wireframe and fine-tuned on the FE-Blurframe, improved by 32.6 and 11.3 points compared with models trained on synthetic only and real only, respectively. The codes, datasets, and trained models are released at: https://levenberg.github.io/FE-LSD

  • 5 authors
·
Nov 14, 2022

Retrieval-Augmented Code Generation for Universal Information Extraction

Information Extraction (IE) aims to extract structural knowledge (e.g., entities, relations, events) from natural language texts, which brings challenges to existing methods due to task-specific schemas and complex text expressions. Code, as a typical kind of formalized language, is capable of describing structural knowledge under various schemas in a universal way. On the other hand, Large Language Models (LLMs) trained on both codes and texts have demonstrated powerful capabilities of transforming texts into codes, which provides a feasible solution to IE tasks. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a universal retrieval-augmented code generation framework based on LLMs, called Code4UIE, for IE tasks. Specifically, Code4UIE adopts Python classes to define task-specific schemas of various structural knowledge in a universal way. By so doing, extracting knowledge under these schemas can be transformed into generating codes that instantiate the predefined Python classes with the information in texts. To generate these codes more precisely, Code4UIE adopts the in-context learning mechanism to instruct LLMs with examples. In order to obtain appropriate examples for different tasks, Code4UIE explores several example retrieval strategies, which can retrieve examples semantically similar to the given texts. Extensive experiments on five representative IE tasks across nine datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the Code4UIE framework.

  • 11 authors
·
Nov 6, 2023