Daily Papers

We assess the dark matter halo masses of luminous AGNs over the redshift range 0.2 to 1.2 using galaxy-galaxy lensing based on imaging data from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC-SSP). We measure the weak lensing signal of a sample of 48907 AGNs constructed using HSC and WISE photometry. %The lensing detection around AGNs has a signal to noise ratio of 29. As expected, we find that the lensing mass profile of total AGN sample is consistent with that of massive galaxies (rm log(M_{*}/h^{-2}M_odot)sim 10.61). Surprisingly, the lensing signal remains unchanged when the AGN sample is split into four stellar mass bins of host galaxies. Specifically, we find that the excess surface density (ESD) of AGNs, residing in galaxies with high stellar masses, significantly differs from that of the control sample. We further fit a halo occupation distribution model to the data to infer the posterior distribution of parameters including the average halo mass. We find that the characteristic halo mass of the full AGN population lies near the knee (rm log(M_h/h^{-1}M_{odot})=12.0) of the stellar-to-halo mass relation (SHMR). Illustrative of the results given above, the halo masses of AGNs residing in host galaxies with high stellar masses (i.e., above the knee of the SHMR) falls below the calibrated SHMR while the halo mass of the low stellar mass sample is more consistent with the established SHMR. These results indicate that massive halos with higher clustering bias tends to suppress AGN activity, probably due to the lack of available gas.

We analyse the robustness of the DESI 2024 cosmological inference from fits to the full shape of the galaxy power spectrum to uncertainties in the Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) model of the galaxy-halo connection and the choice of priors on nuisance parameters. We assess variations in the recovered cosmological parameters across a range of mocks populated with different HOD models and find that shifts are often greater than 20% of the expected statistical uncertainties from the DESI data. We encapsulate the effect of such shifts in terms of a systematic covariance term, C_{rm HOD}, and an additional diagonal contribution quantifying the impact of our choice of nuisance parameter priors on the ability of the effective field theory (EFT) model to correctly recover the cosmological parameters of the simulations. These two covariance contributions are designed to be added to the usual covariance term, C_{rm stat}, describing the statistical uncertainty in the power spectrum measurement, in order to fairly represent these sources of systematic uncertainty. This approach is more general and robust to choices of model free parameters or additional external datasets used in cosmological fits than the alternative approach of adding systematic uncertainties at the level of the recovered marginalised parameter posteriors. We compare the approaches within the context of a fixed LambdaCDM model and demonstrate that our method gives conservative estimates of the systematic uncertainty that nevertheless have little impact on the final posteriors obtained from DESI data.

Ongoing and upcoming galaxy redshift surveys, such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey, will observe vast regions of sky and a wide range of redshifts. In order to model the observations and address various systematic uncertainties, N-body simulations are routinely adopted, however, the number of large simulations with sufficiently high mass resolution is usually limited by available computing time. Therefore, achieving a simulation volume with the effective statistical errors significantly smaller than those of the observations becomes prohibitively expensive. In this study, we apply the Convergence Acceleration by Regression and Pooling (CARPool) method to mitigate the sample variance of the DESI-like galaxy clustering in the AbacusSummit simulations, with the assistance of the quasi-N-body simulations FastPM. Based on the halo occupation distribution (HOD) models, we construct different FastPM galaxy catalogs, including the luminous red galaxies (LRGs), emission line galaxies (ELGs), and quasars, with their number densities and two-point clustering statistics well matched to those of AbacusSummit. We also employ the same initial conditions between AbacusSummit and FastPM to achieve high cross-correlation, as it is useful in effectively suppressing the variance. Our method of reducing noise in clustering is equivalent to performing a simulation with volume larger by a factor of 5 and 4 for LRGs and ELGs, respectively. We also mitigate the standard deviation of the LRG bispectrum with the triangular configurations k_2=2k_1=0.2 h/Mpc by a factor of 1.6. With smaller sample variance on galaxy clustering, we are able to constrain the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) scale parameters to higher precision. The CARPool method will be beneficial to better constrain the theoretical systematics of BAO, redshift space distortions (RSD) and primordial non-Gaussianity (NG).

This paper studies the scale and redshift variation of density and velocity distributions in self-gravitating collisionless dark matter flow by a halo-based non-projection approach. All particles are divided into halo and out-of-halo particles for redshift variation of distributions. Without projecting particle fields onto a structured grid, the scale variation is analyzed by identifying all particle pairs on different scales r. We demonstrate that: i) Delaunay tessellation can be used to reconstruct the density field. The density correlation, spectrum, and dispersion functions were obtained, modeled, and compared with the N-body simulation; ii) the velocity distributions are symmetric on both small and large scales and are non-symmetric with a negative skewness on intermediate scales due to the inverse energy cascade at a constant rate varepsilon_u; iii) On small scales, the even order moments of pairwise velocity Delta u_L follow a two-thirds law (-varepsilon_ur)^{2/3}, while the odd order moments follow a linear scaling langle(Delta u_L)^{2n+1}rangle=(2n+1)langle(Delta u_L)^{2n}ranglelangleDelta u_Lrangler; iv) The scale variation of the velocity distributions was studied for longitudinal velocities u_L or u_L^{'}, pairwise velocity (velocity difference) Delta u_L=u_L^{'}-u_L and velocity sum Sigma u_L=u^{'}_L+u_L. Fully developed velocity fields are never Gaussian on any scale, despite that they can initially be Gaussian; v) On small scales, u_L and Sigma u_L can be modeled by a X distribution to maximize the system entropy; vi) On large scales, Delta u_L and Sigma u_L can be modeled by a logistic or a X distribution; vii) the redshift variation of the velocity distributions follows the evolution of the X distribution involving a shape parameter alpha(z) decreasing with time.

Galaxy clusters selected based on overdensities of galaxies in photometric surveys provide the largest cluster samples. Yet modeling the selection function of such samples is complicated by non-cluster members projected along the line of sight (projection effects) and the potential detection of unvirialized objects (contamination). We empirically constrain the magnitude of these effects by cross-matching galaxy clusters selected in the Dark Energy survey data with the \rdmpr, algorithm with significant detections in three South Pole Telescope surveys (SZ, pol-ECS, pol-500d). For matched clusters, we augment the \rdmpr,catalog by the SPT detection significance. For unmatched objects we use the SPT detection threshold as an upper limit on the SZe signature. Using a Bayesian population model applied to the collected multi-wavelength data, we explore various physically motivated models to describe the relationship between observed richness and halo mass. Our analysis reveals the limitations of a simple lognormal scatter model in describing the data. We rule out significant contamination by unvirialized objects at the high-richness end of the sample. While dedicated simulations offer a well-fitting calibration of projection effects, our findings suggest the presence of redshift-dependent trends that these simulations may not have captured. Our findings highlight that modeling the selection function of optically detected clusters remains a complicated challenge, requiring a combination of simulation and data-driven approaches.

We search for dark matter (DM) annihilating subhalos of the Milky Way halo among the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) unassociated sources. We construct, for the first time, a statistical model of the unassociated sources at latitudes above 10 degrees. The latter is built as a combination of both DM annihilation subhalos as well as Galactic and extragalactic astrophysical components. The astrophysical components are constructed based on distributions of associated sources, while the distribution of DM subhalos is derived from Monte Carlo simulations. In this model we take into account the differences in the distributions of associated and unassociated sources including both covariate and prior probability shifts (both being forms of ``dataset shifts''). Previous searches of DM subhalos were based on classify-and-count strategies, while the approach adopted in this work is based on quantification learning, which allows one to determine a well-defined statistical interpretation of the contribution of a population of DM subhalos to the unassociated Fermi-LAT sources. In the bb annihilation channel and for a range of DM masses from 10 GeV to 1 TeV, we don't find a significant contribution from DM subhalos and derive a statistical 95% confidence upper limit on the DM annihilation cross section in this channel. While the derived limits are consistent with previous classify-and-count approaches, our generative statistical model opens new avenues for population studies of Fermi-LAT sources and, more generally, for searches of anomalies on top of backgrounds in presence of statistical and systematic uncertainties.

Context. Cosmic voids are vast underdense regions in the cosmic web that encode crucial information about structure formation, the composition of the Universe, and its expansion history. Due to their lower density, these regions are less affected by non-linear gravitational dynamics, making them suitable candidates for analysis using semi-analytic methods. Aims. We assess the accuracy of the PINOCCHIO code, a fast tool for generating dark matter halo catalogs based on Lagrangian Perturbation Theory, in modeling the statistical properties of cosmic voids. We validate this approach by comparing the resulting void statistics measured from PINOCCHIO to those obtained from N-body simulations. Methods. We generate a set of simulations using PINOCCHIO and OpenGADGET3, assuming a fiducial cosmology and varying the resolution. For a given resolution, the simulations share the same initial conditions between the different simulation codes. Snapshots are saved at multiple redshifts for each simulation and post-processed using the watershed void finder VIDE to identify cosmic voids. For each simulation code, we measure the following statistics: void size function, void ellipticity function, core density function, and the void radial density profile. We use these statistics to quantify the accuracy of PINOCCHIO relative to OpenGADGET3 in the context of cosmic voids. Results. We find agreement for all void statistics at better than 2{\sigma} between PINOCCHIO and OpenGADGET3, with no systematic difference in redshift trends. This demonstrates that the PINOCCHIO code can reliably produce void statistics with high computational efficiency compared to full N-body simulations.

Understanding the galaxy-halo relationship is not only key for elucidating the interplay between baryonic and dark matter, it is essential for creating large mock galaxy catalogues from N-body simulations. High-resolution hydrodynamical simulations are limited to small volumes by their large computational demands, hindering their use for comparisons with wide-field observational surveys. We overcome this limitation by using the First Light and Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES), a suite of high-resolution (M_gas = 1.8 x 10^6 M_Sun) zoom simulations drawn from a large, (3.2 cGpc)^3 box. We use an extremely randomised trees machine learning approach to model the relationship between galaxies and their subhaloes in a wide range of environments. This allows us to build mock catalogues with dynamic ranges that surpass those obtainable through periodic simulations. The low cost of the zoom simulations facilitates multiple runs of the same regions, differing only in the random number seed of the subgrid models; changing this seed introduces a butterfly effect, leading to random differences in the properties of matching galaxies. This randomness cannot be learnt by a deterministic machine learning model, but by sampling the noise and adding it post-facto to our predictions, we are able to recover the distributions of the galaxy properties we predict (stellar mass, star formation rate, metallicity, and size) remarkably well. We also explore the resolution-dependence of our models' performances and find minimal depreciation down to particle resolutions of order M_DM ~ 10^8 M_Sun, enabling the future application of our models to large dark matter-only boxes.

Large Language Models (LLMs) in agentic workflows combine multi-step reasoning, tool use, and collaboration across multiple specialized agents. Existing LLM serving engines optimize individual calls in isolation, while multi-agent frameworks focus on orchestration without system-level performance planning. As a result, repeated prompts, overlapping contexts, and concurrent executions create substantial redundancy and poor GPU utilization, especially in batch analytics scenarios. We introduce Halo, a system that brings batch query processing and optimization into agentic LLM workflows. Halo represents each workflow as a structured query plan DAG and constructs a consolidated graph for batched queries that exposes shared computation. Guided by a cost model that jointly considers prefill and decode costs, cache reuse, and GPU placement, Halo performs plan-level optimization to minimize redundant execution. Its runtime integrates adaptive batching, KV-cache sharing and migration, along with compute-communication overlap to maximize hardware efficiency. Evaluation across six benchmarks shows that Halo achieves up to 18.6x speedup for batch inference and 4.7x throughput improvement under online serving, scaling to workloads of tens of thousands of queries and complex graphs. These gains are achieved without compromising output quality. By unifying query optimization with LLM serving, Halo enables efficient agentic workflows in data analytics and decision-making applications.

We confirm for the first time the existence of distinctive halo bias associated with the quadrupolar type of statistical anisotropy (SA) of the linear matter density field using cosmological N-body simulations. We find that the coefficient of the SA-induced bias for cluster-sized halos takes negative values and exhibits a decreasing trend with increasing halo mass. This results in the quadrupole halo power spectra in a statistically anisotropic universe being less amplified compared to the monopole spectra. The anisotropic feature in halo bias that we found presents a promising new tool for testing the hypothesis of a statistically anisotropic universe, with significant implications for the precise verification of anisotropic inflation scenarios and vector dark matter and dark energy models.

Using K giants from the second data release (DR2) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Milky Way (MW) Survey, we measure the shape, orientation, radial profile, and density anisotropies of the MW stellar halo over 8 kpc<r_GC<200 kpc. We identify a triaxial stellar halo (axes ratio 10:8:7), 43 degrees tilted from the disk, showing two break radii at sim16 kpc and sim76 kpc, likely associated with Gaia-Sausage/Enceladus (GSE) and Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), respectively. The inner stellar halo (<30 kpc) is oblate and aligned with the disk, whereas the outer stellar halo becomes prolate and perpendicular to the disk, consistent with the Vast Polar Structure of MW satellites. The twisted halo may arise from the disk-halo angular momentum shift triggered by the infall of a massive satellite. The anisotropic density distribution of the stellar halo is also measured, with successful re-identification of the Hercules-Aquila Cloud South/North (HAC-N/-S) and Virgo overdensities (VOD). Break radii are found at 15/30 kpc for VOD/HAC-N(-S). We identify the LMC transient density wake with a break radius at 60 kpc in the Pisces overdensity region. We also find new observational evidence of the LMC collective density wake, by showing a break radius at sim100 kpc in the northern Galactic cap with a clear density peak at 90 kpc. In the end, we found that more metal-poor halo stars are more radially extended. Our results provide important clues to the assembly and evolution of the MW stellar halo under the standard cosmic structure formation framework.

In astrophysical and cosmological analyses, the increasing quality and volume of astronomical data demand efficient and precise computational tools. This work introduces a novel adaptive algorithm for automatic knots (AutoKnots) allocation in spline interpolation, designed to meet user-defined precision requirements. Unlike traditional methods that rely on manually configured knot distributions with numerous parameters, the proposed technique automatically determines the optimal number and placement of knots based on interpolation error criteria. This simplifies configuration, often requiring only a single parameter. The algorithm progressively improves the interpolation by adaptively sampling the function-to-be-approximated, f(x), in regions where the interpolation error exceeds the desired threshold. All function evaluations contribute directly to the final approximation, ensuring efficiency. While each resampling step involves recomputing the interpolation table, this process is highly optimized and usually computationally negligible compared to the cost of evaluating f(x). We show the algorithm's efficacy through a series of precision tests on different functions. However, the study underscores the necessity for caution when dealing with certain function types, notably those featuring plateaus. To address this challenge, a heuristic enhancement is incorporated, improving accuracy in flat regions. This algorithm has been extensively used and tested over the years. NumCosmo includes a comprehensive set of unit tests that rigorously evaluate the algorithm both directly and indirectly, underscoring its robustness and reliability. As a practical application, we compute the surface mass density Sigma(R) and the average surface mass density Sigma(<R) for Navarro-Frenk-White and Hernquist halo density profiles, which provide analytical benchmarks. (abridged)

We propose a new method to determine the shape of the gravitational potential of the dark matter (DM) halo of the Milky Way (MW) with the galactocentric tangential velocities of a sample of hypervelocity stars (HVSs). We compute the trajectories of different samples of HVSs in a MW where the baryon distribution is axisymmetric and the DM potential either is spherical or is spheroidal or triaxial with radial-dependent axis ratios. We determine the shape of the DM potential with the distribution of the latitudinal velocity |v_{vartheta}| in axisymmetric Galactic potentials, or with the distribution of |v_{vartheta}| and of a function bar v_{varphi} of the azimuthal velocity in non-axisymmetric Galactic potentials. We recover the correct shape of the DM potential by comparing the distribution of |v_{vartheta}| and bar v_{varphi} against the corresponding distributions of mock samples of HVSs that traveled in DM halos of different shapes. We use the largest possible sample of sim 800 HVSs of 4~M_odot ejected with the Hills mechanism at a rate sim 10^{-4} yr^{-1}, currently outgoing, and located at more than 10 kpc from the Galactic center. In our ideal case of galactocentric velocities with null uncertainties and no observational limitations, our method recovers the correct shape of the DM potential with a success rate Sgtrsim 89% in axisymmetric Galactic potentials, and S > 96% in the explored non-axisymmetric cases. The unsuccessful cases yield axis ratios of the DM potential that are off by pm 0.1. The success rate decreases with decreasing sample size: for example, for a spherical DM halo, S drops from sim 98% to sim 38% when the sample size decreases from sim 800 to sim 40 HVSs. A robust determination of the shape of the DM potential thus requires the measure of the galactocentric velocity of a few hundred genuine HVSs.

Observed dwarf galaxies tend to have linearly rising rotation curves, which indicate flat density cores in their centers. Furthermore, disk galaxies show a wide range of rotation curves shapes. High resolution simulations of cold collisionless dark matter do not reproduce flat central profiles, or the observed diversity of rotation curve shapes; even hydrodynamic simulations incorporating baryonic feedback cannot do that robustly. However, numerical simulations are not the only way to make predictions about density profiles of equilibrium dark matter halos. A theoretical model based on statistical mechanics shows that maximum entropy solutions for cold collisionless self-gravitating dark matter halos can have a range of inner density profiles, including flat density cores. These theoretical profiles, called DARKexp, have only one shape parameter, and are able to fit the observed rotation curves of galaxies with last measured velocities in the range ~20-200 km/s. Here we present fits to 96 SPARC catalog galaxies, and the Milky Way. DARKexp also provides good fits to the projected stellar density distributions of ultrafaint dwarfs that show cores, suggesting that the dark matter halo hosts could have flat density cores. Thus, DARKexp appears to be able to address the core-cusp problem and the diversity of rotation curves with cold collisionless dark matter alone, without baryonic feedback.

Interactions among features are central to understanding the behavior of machine learning models. Recent research has made significant strides in detecting and quantifying feature interactions in single predictive models. However, we argue that the feature interactions extracted from a single pre-specified model may not be trustworthy since: a well-trained predictive model may not preserve the true feature interactions and there exist multiple well-performing predictive models that differ in feature interaction strengths. Thus, we recommend exploring feature interaction strengths in a model class of approximately equally accurate predictive models. In this work, we introduce the feature interaction score (FIS) in the context of a Rashomon set, representing a collection of models that achieve similar accuracy on a given task. We propose a general and practical algorithm to calculate the FIS in the model class. We demonstrate the properties of the FIS via synthetic data and draw connections to other areas of statistics. Additionally, we introduce a Halo plot for visualizing the feature interaction variance in high-dimensional space and a swarm plot for analyzing FIS in a Rashomon set. Experiments with recidivism prediction and image classification illustrate how feature interactions can vary dramatically in importance for similarly accurate predictive models. Our results suggest that the proposed FIS can provide valuable insights into the nature of feature interactions in machine learning models.

The peculiar velocities of biased tracers of the cosmic density field contain important information about the growth of large scale structure and generate anisotropy in the observed clustering of galaxies. Using N-body data, we show that velocity expansions for halo redshift-space power spectra are converged at the percent-level at perturbative scales for most line-of-sight angles mu when the first three pairwise velocity moments are included, and that the third moment is well-approximated by a counterterm-like contribution. We compute these pairwise-velocity statistics in Fourier space using both Eulerian and Lagrangian one-loop perturbation theory using a cubic bias scheme and a complete set of counterterms and stochastic contributions. We compare the models and show that our models fit both real-space velocity statistics and redshift-space power spectra for both halos and a mock sample of galaxies at sub-percent level on perturbative scales using consistent sets of parameters, making them appealing choices for the upcoming era of spectroscopic, peculiar-velocity and kSZ surveys.

A model involving Gaussian processes (GPs) is introduced to simultaneously handle multi-task learning, clustering, and prediction for multiple functional data. This procedure acts as a model-based clustering method for functional data as well as a learning step for subsequent predictions for new tasks. The model is instantiated as a mixture of multi-task GPs with common mean processes. A variational EM algorithm is derived for dealing with the optimisation of the hyper-parameters along with the hyper-posteriors' estimation of latent variables and processes. We establish explicit formulas for integrating the mean processes and the latent clustering variables within a predictive distribution, accounting for uncertainty on both aspects. This distribution is defined as a mixture of cluster-specific GP predictions, which enhances the performances when dealing with group-structured data. The model handles irregular grid of observations and offers different hypotheses on the covariance structure for sharing additional information across tasks. The performances on both clustering and prediction tasks are assessed through various simulated scenarios and real datasets. The overall algorithm, called MagmaClust, is publicly available as an R package.

We introduce the First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES), a suite of zoom simulations using the EAGLE model. We resimulate a range of overdensities during the Epoch of Reionisation (EoR) in order to build composite distribution functions, as well as explore the environmental dependence of galaxy formation and evolution during this critical period of galaxy assembly. The regions are selected from a large (3.2 ;cGpc)^{3} parent volume, based on their overdensity within a sphere of radius 14,h^{-1};cMpc. We then resimulate with full hydrodynamics, and employ a novel weighting scheme that allows the construction of composite distribution functions that are representative of the full parent volume. This significantly extends the dynamic range compared to smaller volume periodic simulations. We present an analysis of the galaxy stellar mass function (GSMF), the star formation rate distribution function (SFRF) and the star forming sequence (SFS) predicted by \flares, and compare to a number of observational and model constraints. We also analyse the environmental dependence over an unprecedented range of overdensity. Both the GSMF and the SFRF exhibit a clear double-Schechter form, up to the highest redshifts (z = 10). We also find no environmental dependence of the SFS normalisation. The increased dynamic range probed by FLARES will allow us to make predictions for a number of large area surveys that will probe the EoR in coming years, such as WFIRST and Euclid.

MATSim (Multi-Agent Transport Simulation Toolkit) is an open source large-scale agent-based transportation planning project applied to various areas like road transport, public transport, freight transport, regional evacuation, etc. BEAM (Behavior, Energy, Autonomy, and Mobility) framework extends MATSim to enable powerful and scalable analysis of urban transportation systems. The agents from the BEAM simulation exhibit 'mode choice' behavior based on multinomial logit model. In our study, we consider eight mode choices viz. bike, car, walk, ride hail, driving to transit, walking to transit, ride hail to transit, and ride hail pooling. The 'alternative specific constants' for each mode choice are critical hyperparameters in a configuration file related to a particular scenario under experimentation. We use the 'Urbansim-10k' BEAM scenario (with 10,000 population size) for all our experiments. Since these hyperparameters affect the simulation in complex ways, manual calibration methods are time consuming. We present a parallel Bayesian optimization method with early stopping rule to achieve fast convergence for the given multi-in-multi-out problem to its optimal configurations. Our model is based on an open source HpBandSter package. This approach combines hierarchy of several 1D Kernel Density Estimators (KDE) with a cheap evaluator (Hyperband, a single multidimensional KDE). Our model has also incorporated extrapolation based early stopping rule. With our model, we could achieve a 25% L1 norm for a large-scale BEAM simulation in fully autonomous manner. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first of its kind applied to large-scale multi-agent transportation simulations. This work can be useful for surrogate modeling of scenarios with very large populations.

Aims. We aim to investigate the influence of the distance to filaments and dark-matter haloes on galaxy cold-gas content in the empirical model NeutralUniverseMachine (NUM) and the hydrodynamical simulation IllustrisTNG. Methods. We used DisPerSE to identify cosmic web structures and calculate the distance of galaxies to filaments for both observations and models. We show the results of the HI and H2 mass functions, HI- and H2-halo-mass relations, HI- and H2-stellar-mass relations for galaxies in the NUM model and IllustrisTNG with different distances to filaments and compare them with observational measurements. We also show the evolution of HI and H2 mass densities at different distances to filament bins. Results. We find that how filaments affect the HI gas is generally less significant compared to the halo environment. There is a weak trend in the observations at z=0 that low-mass haloes lying closer to the filaments tend to have reduced HI masses. However, this trend reverses for massive haloes with log(Mvir/Msun) > 12.5. This behaviour is accurately reproduced in the NUM model due to the dependence of HI gas on the halo formation time, but it does not appear in IllustrisTNG. The influence of filaments on the HI gas becomes slightly weaker at higher redshifts and is only significant for galaxies that reside in massive haloes in the NUM model. Filaments have almost no impact on the H2-stellar-mass relation in both models, confirming that H2 is primarily determined by the galaxy stellar mass and star formation rate.

Statistics that capture the directional dependence of the baryon distribution in the cosmic web enable unique tests of cosmology and astrophysical feedback. We use constrained oriented stacking of thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (tSZ) maps to measure the anisotropic distribution of hot gas 2.5-40 Mpc away from galaxy clusters embedded in massive filaments and superclusters. The cluster selection and orientation (at a scale of sim15 Mpc) use Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 data, while expanded tSZ maps from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope Data Release 6 enable a sim3times more significant measurement of the extended gas compared to the technique's proof-of-concept. Decomposing stacks into cosine multipoles of order m, we detect a dipole (m=1) and quadrupole (m=2) at 8-10sigma, as well as evidence for m=4 signal at up to 6sigma, indicating sensitivity to late-time non-Gaussianity. We compare to the Cardinal simulations with spherical gas models pasted onto dark matter halos. The fiducial tSZ data can discriminate between two models that deplete pressure differently in low-mass halos (mimicking astrophysical feedback), preferring higher average pressure in extended structures. However, uncertainty in the amount of cosmic infrared background contamination reduces the constraining power. Additionally, we apply the technique to DES galaxy density and weak lensing to study for the first time their oriented relationships with tSZ. In the tSZ-to-lensing relation, averaged on 7.5 Mpc (transverse) scales, we observe dependence on redshift but not shape or radial distance. Thus, on large scales, the superclustering of gas pressure, galaxies, and total matter is coherent in shape and extent.

The labor market is a complex ecosystem comprising diverse, interconnected entities, such as industries, occupations, skills, and firms. Due to the lack of a systematic method to map these heterogeneous entities together, each entity has been analyzed in isolation or only through pairwise relationships, inhibiting comprehensive understanding of the whole ecosystem. Here, we introduce Labor Space, a vector-space embedding of heterogeneous labor market entities, derived through applying a large language model with fine-tuning. Labor Space exposes the complex relational fabric of various labor market constituents, facilitating coherent integrative analysis of industries, occupations, skills, and firms, while retaining type-specific clustering. We demonstrate its unprecedented analytical capacities, including positioning heterogeneous entities on an economic axes, such as `Manufacturing--Healthcare'. Furthermore, by allowing vector arithmetic of these entities, Labor Space enables the exploration of complex inter-unit relations, and subsequently the estimation of the ramifications of economic shocks on individual units and their ripple effect across the labor market. We posit that Labor Space provides policymakers and business leaders with a comprehensive unifying framework for labor market analysis and simulation, fostering more nuanced and effective strategic decision-making.

Recent studies illustrate the correlation between the angular momenta of cosmic structures and their Lagrangian properties. However, only baryons are observable and it is unclear whether they reliably trace the cosmic angular momenta. We study the Lagrangian mass distribution, spin correlation, and predictability of dark matter, gas, and stellar components of galaxy-halo systems using IllustrisTNG, and show that the primordial segregations between components are typically small. Their protoshapes are also similar in terms of the statistics of moment of inertia tensors. Under the common gravitational potential they are expected to exert the same tidal torque and the strong spin correlations are not destroyed by the nonlinear evolution and complicated baryonic effects, as confirmed by the high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations. We further show that their late-time angular momenta traced by total gas, stars, or the central galaxies, can be reliably reconstructed by the initial perturbations. These results suggest that baryonic angular momenta can potentially be used in reconstructing the parameters and models related to the initial perturbations.

Large-scale commercial platforms usually involve numerous business domains for diverse business strategies and expect their recommendation systems to provide click-through rate (CTR) predictions for multiple domains simultaneously. Existing promising and widely-used multi-domain models discover domain relationships by explicitly constructing domain-specific networks, but the computation and memory boost significantly with the increase of domains. To reduce computational complexity, manually grouping domains with particular business strategies is common in industrial applications. However, this pre-defined data partitioning way heavily relies on prior knowledge, and it may neglect the underlying data distribution of each domain, hence limiting the model's representation capability. Regarding the above issues, we propose an elegant and flexible multi-distribution modeling paradigm, named Adaptive Distribution Hierarchical Model (AdaptDHM), which is an end-to-end optimization hierarchical structure consisting of a clustering process and classification process. Specifically, we design a distribution adaptation module with a customized dynamic routing mechanism. Instead of introducing prior knowledge for pre-defined data allocation, this routing algorithm adaptively provides a distribution coefficient for each sample to determine which cluster it belongs to. Each cluster corresponds to a particular distribution so that the model can sufficiently capture the commonalities and distinctions between these distinct clusters. Extensive experiments on both public and large-scale Alibaba industrial datasets verify the effectiveness and efficiency of AdaptDHM: Our model achieves impressive prediction accuracy and its time cost during the training stage is more than 50% less than that of other models.

Parameter inference is a crucial task in modern cosmology that requires accurate and fast computational methods to handle the high precision and volume of observational datasets. In this study, we explore a hybrid vision transformer, the Convolution vision Transformer (CvT), which combines the benefits of vision transformers (ViTs) and convolutional neural networks (CNNs). We use this approach to infer the Omega_m and sigma_8 cosmological parameters from simulated dark matter and halo fields. Our experiments indicate that the constraints on Omega_m and sigma_8 obtained using CvT are better than ViT and CNN, using either dark matter or halo fields. For CvT, pretraining on dark matter fields proves advantageous for improving constraints using halo fields compared to training a model from the beginning. However, ViT and CNN do not show these benefits. The CvT is more efficient than ViT since, despite having more parameters, it requires a training time similar to that of ViT and has similar inference times. The code is available at https://github.com/Yash-10/cvt-cosmo-inference/.

Customer Lifetime Value (CLTV) prediction is a critical task in business applications. Accurately predicting CLTV is challenging in real-world business scenarios, as the distribution of CLTV is complex and mutable. Firstly, there is a large number of users without any consumption consisting of a long-tailed part that is too complex to fit. Secondly, the small set of high-value users spent orders of magnitude more than a typical user leading to a wide range of the CLTV distribution which is hard to capture in a single distribution. Existing approaches for CLTV estimation either assume a prior probability distribution and fit a single group of distribution-related parameters for all samples, or directly learn from the posterior distribution with manually predefined buckets in a heuristic manner. However, all these methods fail to handle complex and mutable distributions. In this paper, we propose a novel optimal distribution selection model OptDist for CLTV prediction, which utilizes an adaptive optimal sub-distribution selection mechanism to improve the accuracy of complex distribution modeling. Specifically, OptDist trains several candidate sub-distribution networks in the distribution learning module (DLM) for modeling the probability distribution of CLTV. Then, a distribution selection module (DSM) is proposed to select the sub-distribution for each sample, thus making the selection automatically and adaptively. Besides, we design an alignment mechanism that connects both modules, which effectively guides the optimization. We conduct extensive experiments on both two public and one private dataset to verify that OptDist outperforms state-of-the-art baselines. Furthermore, OptDist has been deployed on a large-scale financial platform for customer acquisition marketing campaigns and the online experiments also demonstrate the effectiveness of OptDist.

Recent advancements in Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) powered by Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated tremendous potential in diverse task scenarios. Nonetheless, existing agentic systems typically rely on predefined agent-role design spaces and static communication structures, limiting their adaptability as well as flexibility in complex interaction environments and leading to subpar performance on highly specialized and expert-level tasks. To address these issues, we introduce HALO, a multi-agent collaboration framework based on a hierarchical reasoning architecture. Specifically, we incorporate a high-level planning agent for task decomposition, mid-level role-design agents for subtask-specific agent instantiation, and low-level inference agents for subtask execution. Particularly, subtask execution is reformulated as a structured workflow search problem, where Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) systematically explores the agentic action space to construct optimal reasoning trajectories. Additionally, as the majority of users lack expertise in prompt engineering, we leverage an Adaptive Prompt Refinement module to transform raw queries into task-specific prompts. Empirical evaluations on Code Generation (HumanEval), General Reasoning (MMLU), and Arithmetic Reasoning (MATH) benchmark datasets highlight the effectiveness of HALO, yielding a 14.4% average improvement over state-of-the-art baselines. Notably, HALO achieves up to 13.3% performance gain on the Moral Scenarios subject in the MMLU benchmark and up to 19.6% performance gain on the Algebra subarea in the MATH benchmark, indicating its advanced proficiency in tackling highly specialized and expert-level tasks. The code repository is available at https://github.com/23japhone/HALO.

In this paper, we introduce a new class of score-based generative models (SGMs) designed to handle high-cardinality data distributions by leveraging concepts from mean-field theory. We present mean-field chaos diffusion models (MF-CDMs), which address the curse of dimensionality inherent in high-cardinality data by utilizing the propagation of chaos property of interacting particles. By treating high-cardinality data as a large stochastic system of interacting particles, we develop a novel score-matching method for infinite-dimensional chaotic particle systems and propose an approximation scheme that employs a subdivision strategy for efficient training. Our theoretical and empirical results demonstrate the scalability and effectiveness of MF-CDMs for managing large high-cardinality data structures, such as 3D point clouds.

Kahneman & Tversky's prospect theory tells us that humans perceive random variables in a biased but well-defined manner; for example, humans are famously loss-averse. We show that objectives for aligning LLMs with human feedback implicitly incorporate many of these biases -- the success of these objectives (e.g., DPO) over cross-entropy minimization can partly be ascribed to them being human-aware loss functions (HALOs). However, the utility functions these methods attribute to humans still differ from those in the prospect theory literature. Using a Kahneman-Tversky model of human utility, we propose a HALO that directly maximizes the utility of generations instead of maximizing the log-likelihood of preferences, as current methods do. We call this approach Kahneman-Tversky Optimization (KTO), and it matches or exceeds the performance of preference-based methods at scales from 1B to 30B. Crucially, KTO does not need preferences -- only a binary signal of whether an output is desirable or undesirable for a given input. This makes it far easier to use in the real world, where preference data is scarce and expensive.

Ultralight dark matter is an interesting dark matter candidate describing the lightest end of the mass parameter space. This model produces an oscillating granular pattern in halo densities. These fluctuations have the potential to produce a time-varying density along the line of sight creating a small lensing signal for any stars observed through a dark matter halo which oscillates on the de Broglie timescale. In this work, we study this stochastic lensing signal taking into account the impact of density granules as well as the central soliton. We calculate the amplitude and temporal properties of this signal and estimate how stellar observations may be used to constrain the ultralight dark matter mass and abundance.

Recent observations with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) have uncovered unexpectedly high cosmic star formation activity in the early Universe, mere hundreds of millions of years after the Big Bang. These observations are often understood to reflect an evolutionary shift in star formation efficiency (SFE) caused by changing galactic conditions during these early epochs. We present FIREbox-HR, a high-resolution, cosmological hydrodynamical simulation from the Feedback in Realistic Environments project, which offers insights into the SFE of galaxies during the first billion years of cosmic time. FIREbox-HR re-simulates the cosmic volume (L = 22.1 cMpc) of the original FIREbox run with eight times higher mass resolution (m_b ~ 7800 M_sun), but with identical physics, down to z ~ 6. FIREbox-HR predicts ultraviolet (UV) luminosity functions in good agreement with available observational data. The simulation also successfully reproduces the observed cosmic UV luminosity density at z ~ 6 - 14, demonstrating that relatively high star formation activity in the early Universe is a natural outcome of the baryonic processes encoded in the FIRE-2 model. According to FIREbox-HR, the SFE - halo mass relation for intermediate mass halos (M_halo ~ 10^9 - 10^11 M_sun) does not significantly evolve with redshift and is only weakly mass-dependent. These properties of the SFE - halo mass relation lead to a larger contribution from lower mass halos at higher z, driving the gradual evolution of the observed cosmic UV luminosity density. A theoretical model based on the SFE - halo mass relation inferred from FIREbox-HR allows us to explore implications for galaxy evolution. Future observations of UV faint galaxies at z > 12 will provide an opportunity to further test these predictions and deepen our understanding of star formation during Cosmic Dawn.

We present the first high-precision model for the group-scale strong lensing system CASSOWARY 19 (CSWA19), utilising images from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). Sixteen member galaxies identified via the red-sequence method, and the main halo, all modelled as the dual Pseudo Isothermal Elliptical profile (dPIE), are incorporated into a parametric lens model alongside an external shear field. To model the system, we adopt the PyAutoLens software package, employing a progressive search chain strategy for realizing the transition of source model from multiple S\'ersic profiles to a brightness-adaptive pixelization, which uses 1000 pixels in the source plane to reconstruct the background source corresponding to 177,144 image pixels in the image plane. Our results indicate that the total mass within the Einstein radius is M_{theta_E} approx 1.41times10^{13}M_{odot} and the average slope of the total mass density rho (r)propto r^{-gamma} is gamma=1.33 within the effective radius. This slope is shallower than those measured in galaxies and groups but is closer to those of galaxy clusters. In addition, our approach successfully resolves the two merging galaxies in the background source and yields a total magnification of mu=103.18^{+0.23}_{-0.19}, which is significantly higher than the outcomes from previous studies of CSWA19. In summary, our research demonstrates the effectiveness of the brightness-adaptive pixelization source reconstruction technique for modelling group-scale strong lensing systems. It can serve as a technical reference for future investigations into pixel-level modelling of the group- and cluster-scale strong lensing systems.

In physics and engineering literature, the distribution of the excursion-above-zero time distribution (exceedance distribution) for a stationary Gaussian process has been approximated by a stationary switching process with independently distributed switching times. The approach matched the covariance of the clipped Gaussian process with the one for the stationary switching process and the distribution of the latter was used as the so-called independent interval approximation (IIA). The approach successfully assessed the persistency exponent for many physically important processes but left an unanswered question when such an approach leads to a mathematically meaningful and proper exceedance distribution. Here we address this question by proposing an alternative matching of the expected values of the clipped Slepian process and the corresponding switched process initiated at the origin. The method has allowed resolving the mathematical correctness of the matching method for a large subclass of the Gaussian processes with monotonic covariance, for which we provide a sufficient condition for the validity of the IIA. Within this class, the IIA produces a valid distribution for the excursion time and is represented in an explicit stochastic form that connects directly to the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process. We compare the excursion level distributions as well as the corresponding persistency exponents obtained through the IIA method with numerically computed exact distributions, and the simulated distribution for several important Gaussian models. We also argue that for stationary Gaussian processes with a non-monotonic covariance, the IIA fails and should not be used.

The measurements of the temperature and polarisation anisotropies of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) by the ESA Planck mission have strongly supported the current concordance model of cosmology. However, the latest cosmological data release from ESA Planck mission still has a powerful potential to test new data science algorithms and inference techniques. In this paper, we use advanced Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, such as Neural Networks (NNs), to discern among different underlying cosmological models at the angular power spectra level, using both temperature and polarisation Planck 18 data. We test two different models beyond LambdaCDM: a modified gravity model: the Hu-Sawicki model, and an alternative inflationary model: a feature-template in the primordial power spectrum. Furthermore, we also implemented an interpretability method based on SHAP values to evaluate the learning process and identify the most relevant elements that drive our architecture to certain outcomes. We find that our NN is able to distinguish between different angular power spectra successfully for both alternative models and LambdaCDM. We conclude by explaining how archival scientific data has still a strong potential to test novel data science algorithms that are interesting for the next generation of cosmological experiments.

Galaxy Zoo: Clump Scout is a web-based citizen science project designed to identify and spatially locate giant star forming clumps in galaxies that were imaged by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Legacy Survey. We present a statistically driven software framework that is designed to aggregate two-dimensional annotations of clump locations provided by multiple independent Galaxy Zoo: Clump Scout volunteers and generate a consensus label that identifies the locations of probable clumps within each galaxy. The statistical model our framework is based on allows us to assign false-positive probabilities to each of the clumps we identify, to estimate the skill levels of each of the volunteers who contribute to Galaxy Zoo: Clump Scout and also to quantitatively assess the reliability of the consensus labels that are derived for each subject. We apply our framework to a dataset containing 3,561,454 two-dimensional points, which constitute 1,739,259 annotations of 85,286 distinct subjects provided by 20,999 volunteers. Using this dataset, we identify 128,100 potential clumps distributed among 44,126 galaxies. This dataset can be used to study the prevalence and demographics of giant star forming clumps in low-redshift galaxies. The code for our aggregation software framework is publicly available at: https://github.com/ou-astrophysics/BoxAggregator

Cosmic hot-gas emission is closely related to halo gas acquisition and galactic feedback processes. Their X-ray observations reveal important physical properties and movements of the baryonic cycle of galactic ecosystems. However, the measured emissions toward a target at a cosmological distance would always include contributions from hot gases along the entire line of sight to the target. Observationally, such contaminations are routinely subtracted via different strategies. With this work, we aim to answer an interesting theoretical question regarding the amount of soft X-ray line emissions from intervening hot gases of different origins. We tackled this problem with the aid of the TNG100 simulation. We generated typical wide-field light cones and estimated their impacts on spectral and flux measurements toward X-ray-emitting galaxy-, group- and cluster-halo targets at lower redshifts. We split the intervening hot gases into three categories; that is, the hot gas that is gravitationally bound to either star-forming or quenched galaxy halos, and the diffuse gas, which is more tenuously distributed permeating the cosmic web structures. We find that along a given line of sight, the diffuse gas that permeates the cosmic web structures produces strong oxygen and iron line emissions at different redshifts. The diffuse gas emission in the soft X-ray band can be equal to the emission from hot gases that are gravitationally bound to intervening galaxy halos. The hot-gas emission from the quiescent galaxy halos can be significantly less than that from star-forming halos along the line of sight. The fluxes from all of the line-of-sight emitters as measured in the energy band of 0.4--0.85 keV can reach ~20--200 % of the emission from the target galaxy, group, and cluster halos.

We introduce a new family of video prediction models designed to support downstream control tasks. We call these models Video Occupancy models (VOCs). VOCs operate in a compact latent space, thus avoiding the need to make predictions about individual pixels. Unlike prior latent-space world models, VOCs directly predict the discounted distribution of future states in a single step, thus avoiding the need for multistep roll-outs. We show that both properties are beneficial when building predictive models of video for use in downstream control. Code is available at https://github.com/manantomar/video-occupancy-models{github.com/manantomar/video-occupancy-models}.

Masked language models (MLM) do not explicitly define a distribution over language, i.e., they are not language models per se. However, recent work has implicitly treated them as such for the purposes of generation and scoring. This paper studies methods for deriving explicit joint distributions from MLMs, focusing on distributions over two tokens, which makes it possible to calculate exact distributional properties. We find that an approach based on identifying joints whose conditionals are closest to those of the MLM works well and outperforms existing Markov random field-based approaches. We further find that this derived model's conditionals can even occasionally outperform the original MLM's conditionals.

Many empirical studies of labor market questions rely on estimating relatively simple predictive models using small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets based on hand-engineered features. Large Language Models (LLMs), trained on massive datasets, encode vast quantities of world knowledge and can be used for the next job prediction problem. However, while an off-the-shelf LLM produces plausible career trajectories when prompted, the probability with which an LLM predicts a particular job transition conditional on career history will not, in general, align with the true conditional probability in a given population. Recently, Vafa et al. (2024) introduced a transformer-based "foundation model", CAREER, trained using a large, unrepresentative resume dataset, that predicts transitions between jobs; it further demonstrated how transfer learning techniques can be used to leverage the foundation model to build better predictive models of both transitions and wages that reflect conditional transition probabilities found in nationally representative survey datasets. This paper considers an alternative where the fine-tuning of the CAREER foundation model is replaced by fine-tuning LLMs. For the task of next job prediction, we demonstrate that models trained with our approach outperform several alternatives in terms of predictive performance on the survey data, including traditional econometric models, CAREER, and LLMs with in-context learning, even though the LLM can in principle predict job titles that are not allowed in the survey data. Further, we show that our fine-tuned LLM-based models' predictions are more representative of the career trajectories of various workforce subpopulations than off-the-shelf LLM models and CAREER. We conduct experiments and analyses that highlight the sources of the gains in the performance of our models for representative predictions.

We study the response of mono-energetic stellar populations with initially isotropic kinematics to impulsive and adiabatic changes to an underlying dark matter potential. Half-light radii expand and velocity dispersions decrease as enclosed dark matter is removed. The details of this expansion and cooling depend on the time scale on which the underlying potential changes. In the adiabatic regime, the product of half-light radius and average velocity dispersion is conserved. We show that the stellar populations maintain centrally isotropic kinematics throughout their adiabatic evolution, and their densities can be approximated by a family of analytical radial profiles. Metallicity gradients within the galaxy flatten as dark matter is slowly removed. In the case of strong impulsive perturbations, stellar populations develop power-law-like density tails with radially biased kinematics. We show that the distribution of stellar binding energies within the dark matter halo substantially widens after an impulsive perturbation, no matter the sign of the perturbation. This allows initially energetically separated stellar populations to mix, to the extent that previously chemo-dynamically distinct populations may masquerade as a single population with large metallicity and energy spread. Finally, we show that in response to an impulsive perturbation, stellar populations that are deeply embedded in cored dark matter halos undergo a series of damped oscillations before reaching a virialised equilibrium state, driven by inefficient phase mixing in the harmonic potentials of cored halos. This slow return to equilibrium adds substantial systematic uncertainty to dynamical masses estimated from Jeans modeling or the virial theorem.

Gaussian analysis of new, high-angular-resolution interstellar 21-cm neutral hydrogen emission profile structure more clearly reveals the presence of the previously reported signature of the critical ionization velocity ({\it CIV}) of Helium (34 km s^{-1}). The present analysis includes 1496 component line widths for 178 neutral hydrogen profiles in two areas of sky at galactic latitudes around -50^circ, well away from the galactic plane. The new data considered here allow the interstellar abundance of Helium to be calculated, and the derived value of 0.095 pm 0.020 compares extremely well with the value of 0.085 for the cosmic abundance based on solar data. Although the precise mechanisms that give rise to the {\it CIV} effect in interstellar space are not yet understood, our results may provide additional motivation for further theoretical study of how the mechanism operates.

We present a novel approach for identifying members of open star clusters using Gaia DR3 data by combining Minimum Spanning Tree (MST) and Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) techniques. Our method employs a three-step process: initial filtering based on astrometric parameters, MST analysis for spatial distribution filtering, and GMM for final membership probability determination. We tested this methodology on 12+1 open clusters of varying ages, distances, and richness. The method demonstrates superior performance in distinguishing cluster members from field stars, particularly in regions with overlapping populations, as evidenced by its application to clusters like NGC 7790. By effectively reducing the number of probable field stars through MST analysis before applying GMM, our approach enhances both computational efficiency and membership determination accuracy. The results show strong agreement with previous studies while offering improved precision in member identification. This method provides a robust framework for analyzing the extensive datasets provided by Gaia DR3, addressing the challenges of processing large-scale astronomical data while maintaining high accuracy in cluster membership determination.

We present the measurements and cosmological implications of the galaxy two-point clustering using over 4.7 million unique galaxy and quasar redshifts in the range 0.1<z<2.1 divided into six redshift bins over a sim 7,500 square degree footprint, from the first year of observations with the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI Data Release 1). By fitting the full power spectrum, we extend previous DESI DR1 baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements to include redshift-space distortions and signals from the matter-radiation equality scale. For the first time, this Full-Shape analysis is blinded at the catalogue-level to avoid confirmation bias and the systematic errors are accounted for at the two-point clustering level, which automatically propagates them into any cosmological parameter. When analysing the data in terms of compressed model-agnostic variables, we obtain a combined precision of 4.7\% on the amplitude of the redshift space distortion signal reaching similar precision with just one year of DESI data than with 20 years of observation from previous generation surveys. We analyse the data to directly constrain the cosmological parameters within the LambdaCDM model using perturbation theory and combine this information with the reconstructed DESI DR1 galaxy BAO. Using a Big Bang Nucleosynthesis Gaussian prior on the baryon density parameter, and a Gaussian prior on the spectral index, we constrain the matter density is Omega_m=0.296pm 0.010 and the Hubble constant H_0=(68.63 pm 0.79)[{rm km, s^{-1}Mpc^{-1}}]. Additionally, we measure the amplitude of clustering sigma_8=0.841 pm 0.034. The DESI DR1 results are in agreement with the LambdaCDM model based on general relativity with parameters consistent with those from Planck. The cosmological interpretation of these results in combination with external datasets are presented in a companion paper.

We reconstruct the extra-galactic gamma-ray source-count distribution, or dN/dS, of resolved and unresolved sources by adopting machine learning techniques. Specifically, we train a convolutional neural network on synthetic 2-dimensional sky-maps, which are built by varying parameters of underlying source-counts models and incorporate the Fermi-LAT instrumental response functions. The trained neural network is then applied to the Fermi-LAT data, from which we estimate the source count distribution down to flux levels a factor of 50 below the Fermi-LAT threshold. We perform our analysis using 14 years of data collected in the (1,10) GeV energy range. The results we obtain show a source count distribution which, in the resolved regime, is in excellent agreement with the one derived from catalogued sources, and then extends as dN/dS sim S^{-2} in the unresolved regime, down to fluxes of 5 cdot 10^{-12} cm^{-2} s^{-1}. The neural network architecture and the devised methodology have the flexibility to enable future analyses to study the energy dependence of the source-count distribution.

A variety of recent papers discuss the application of Shapley values, a concept for explaining coalitional games, for feature attribution in machine learning. However, the correct way to connect a machine learning model to a coalitional game has been a source of controversy. The two main approaches that have been proposed differ in the way that they condition on known features, using either (1) an interventional or (2) an observational conditional expectation. While previous work has argued that one of the two approaches is preferable in general, we argue that the choice is application dependent. Furthermore, we argue that the choice comes down to whether it is desirable to be true to the model or true to the data. We use linear models to investigate this choice. After deriving an efficient method for calculating observational conditional expectation Shapley values for linear models, we investigate how correlation in simulated data impacts the convergence of observational conditional expectation Shapley values. Finally, we present two real data examples that we consider to be representative of possible use cases for feature attribution -- (1) credit risk modeling and (2) biological discovery. We show how a different choice of value function performs better in each scenario, and how possible attributions are impacted by modeling choices.

Cosmological simulations provide a wealth of data in the form of point clouds and directed trees. A crucial goal is to extract insights from this data that shed light on the nature and composition of the Universe. In this paper we introduce CosmoBench, a benchmark dataset curated from state-of-the-art cosmological simulations whose runs required more than 41 million core-hours and generated over two petabytes of data. CosmoBench is the largest dataset of its kind: it contains 34 thousand point clouds from simulations of dark matter halos and galaxies at three different length scales, as well as 25 thousand directed trees that record the formation history of halos on two different time scales. The data in CosmoBench can be used for multiple tasks -- to predict cosmological parameters from point clouds and merger trees, to predict the velocities of individual halos and galaxies from their collective positions, and to reconstruct merger trees on finer time scales from those on coarser time scales. We provide several baselines on these tasks, some based on established approaches from cosmological modeling and others rooted in machine learning. For the latter, we study different approaches -- from simple linear models that are minimally constrained by symmetries to much larger and more computationally-demanding models in deep learning, such as graph neural networks. We find that least-squares fits with a handful of invariant features sometimes outperform deep architectures with many more parameters and far longer training times. Still there remains tremendous potential to improve these baselines by combining machine learning and cosmology to fully exploit the data. CosmoBench sets the stage for bridging cosmology and geometric deep learning at scale. We invite the community to push the frontier of scientific discovery by engaging with this dataset, available at https://cosmobench.streamlit.app

We review recent findings from a detailed simulation study of the merging cluster El Gordo and present new results inferred from weak lensing data. We found that the observed spatial offsets between the different mass components are well reproduced in merging simulations that include self-interacting dark matter (DM), with an elastic cross-section per unit mass of approximately \sigma_DM/m_X ~ 4 -5 cm^2/gr. Moreover, a relative line-of-sight peculiar velocity on the order of several hundred km/s is found between the two stellar components of the colliding subclusters. These findings strongly suggest the possibility that, in a very energetic cluster collision, DM could possess collisional properties. However, the self-interacting DM merger model presented here is not without difficulties. The values found for \sigma_DM/m_X being in conflict with the current upper bounds on cluster scales. As a solution to this tension we argue that in major cluster mergers the physical modeling of DM interactions, based on the scattering of DM particles, should be considered too simplistic. Additionally, the DM halos of the post-collision clusters have cored density profiles with core radii r_c ~ 300 kpc. Consequently, the associated reduced tangential shear lensing profiles consistently tend to zero at angles \theta <~ 40^{''}. This result is inconsistent with what is deduced from the measured profiles. These profiles exhibit a diverging behavior when \theta --> 0, as predicted by an NFW mass model. We argue that such contradictions cannot be easily reconciled within the DM models presented so far as an alternative to the collisionless paradigm. However, we suggest that this tension can be used as a unique test bed to probe new DM physics.

We conduct an extended analysis of dark energy constraints, in support of the findings of the DESI DR2 cosmology key paper, including DESI data, Planck CMB observations, and three different supernova compilations. Using a broad range of parametric and non-parametric methods, we explore the dark energy phenomenology and find consistent trends across all approaches, in good agreement with the w_0w_aCDM key paper results. Even with the additional flexibility introduced by non-parametric approaches, such as binning and Gaussian Processes, we find that extending LambdaCDM to include a two-parameter w(z) is sufficient to capture the trends present in the data. Finally, we examine three dark energy classes with distinct dynamics, including quintessence scenarios satisfying w geq -1, to explore what underlying physics can explain such deviations. The current data indicate a clear preference for models that feature a phantom crossing; although alternatives lacking this feature are disfavored, they cannot yet be ruled out. Our analysis confirms that the evidence for dynamical dark energy, particularly at low redshift (z lesssim 0.3), is robust and stable under different modeling choices.

The origins of the colors of Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) represent a crucial unresolved question, central to understanding the history of our Solar System. Recent observational surveys have revealed correlations between the eccentricity and inclination of TNOs and their colors. This has rekindled the long-standing debate on whether these colors reflect the conditions of TNO formation or their subsequent collisional evolution. In this study, we address this question with 98.7% certainty, using a model-agnostic, data-driven approach based on causal graphs. First, as a sanity check, we demonstrate how our model can replicate the currently accepted paradigms of TNOs' dynamical history, blindly and without any orbital modeling or physics-based assumptions. In fact, our causal model (with no knowledge of the existence of Neptune) predicts the existence of an unknown perturbing body, i.e., Neptune. We then show how this model predicts, with high certainty, that the color of TNOs is the root cause of their inclination distribution, rather than the other way around. This strongly suggests that the colors of TNOs reflect an underlying dynamical property, most likely their formation location. Moreover, our causal model excludes formation scenarios that invoke substantial color modification by subsequent irradiation. We therefore conclude that the colors of TNOs are predominantly primordial.

We present the Cosmology and Astrophysics with MachinE Learning Simulations --CAMELS-- project. CAMELS is a suite of 4,233 cosmological simulations of (25~h^{-1}{rm Mpc})^3 volume each: 2,184 state-of-the-art (magneto-)hydrodynamic simulations run with the AREPO and GIZMO codes, employing the same baryonic subgrid physics as the IllustrisTNG and SIMBA simulations, and 2,049 N-body simulations. The goal of the CAMELS project is to provide theory predictions for different observables as a function of cosmology and astrophysics, and it is the largest suite of cosmological (magneto-)hydrodynamic simulations designed to train machine learning algorithms. CAMELS contains thousands of different cosmological and astrophysical models by way of varying Omega_m, sigma_8, and four parameters controlling stellar and AGN feedback, following the evolution of more than 100 billion particles and fluid elements over a combined volume of (400~h^{-1}{rm Mpc})^3. We describe the simulations in detail and characterize the large range of conditions represented in terms of the matter power spectrum, cosmic star formation rate density, galaxy stellar mass function, halo baryon fractions, and several galaxy scaling relations. We show that the IllustrisTNG and SIMBA suites produce roughly similar distributions of galaxy properties over the full parameter space but significantly different halo baryon fractions and baryonic effects on the matter power spectrum. This emphasizes the need for marginalizing over baryonic effects to extract the maximum amount of information from cosmological surveys. We illustrate the unique potential of CAMELS using several machine learning applications, including non-linear interpolation, parameter estimation, symbolic regression, data generation with Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), dimensionality reduction, and anomaly detection.

After decades of brown dwarf discovery and follow-up, we can now infer the functional form of the mass distribution within 20 parsecs, which serves as a constraint on star formation theory at the lowest masses. Unlike objects on the main sequence that have a clear luminosity-to-mass correlation, brown dwarfs lack a correlation between an observable parameter (luminosity, spectral type, or color) and mass. A measurement of the brown dwarf mass function must therefore be procured through proxy measurements and theoretical models. We utilize various assumed forms of the mass function, together with a variety of birthrate functions, low-mass cutoffs, and theoretical evolutionary models, to build predicted forms of the effective temperature distribution. We then determine the best fit of the observed effective temperature distribution to these predictions, which in turn reveals the most likely mass function. We find that a simple power law (dN/dM propto M^{-α}) with αapprox 0.5 is optimal. Additionally, we conclude that the low-mass cutoff for star formation is lesssim0.005M_{odot}. We corroborate the findings of Burgasser (2004) which state that the birthrate has a far lesser impact than the mass function on the form of the temperature distribution, but we note that our alternate birthrates tend to favor slightly smaller values of α than the constant birthrate. Our code for simulating these distributions is publicly available. As another use case for this code, we present findings on the width and location of the subdwarf temperature gap by simulating distributions of very old (8-10 Gyr) brown dwarfs.

Personalizing visual generative models to meet specific user needs has gained increasing attention, yet current methods like Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) remain impractical due to their demand for task-specific data and lengthy optimization. While a few hypernetwork-based approaches attempt to predict adaptation weights directly, they struggle to map fine-grained user prompts to complex LoRA distributions, limiting their practical applicability. To bridge this gap, we propose LoFA, a general framework that efficiently predicts personalized priors for fast model adaptation. We first identify a key property of LoRA: structured distribution patterns emerge in the relative changes between LoRA and base model parameters. Building on this, we design a two-stage hypernetwork: first predicting relative distribution patterns that capture key adaptation regions, then using these to guide final LoRA weight prediction. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method consistently predicts high-quality personalized priors within seconds, across multiple tasks and user prompts, even outperforming conventional LoRA that requires hours of processing. Project page: https://jaeger416.github.io/lofa/.

Based on their cosmological origin, the stars of a galaxy can be divided into two categories: those that enter through merger events (ex situ) and those born in the main progenitor (in situ). We used the TNG50 cosmological magnetohydrodynamical simulation and its Lagrangian tracer particles to explore and quantify the origin of gas that ultimately forms the in situ stars of galaxies. We tracked back the baryonic mass contributing to the z=0 in situ stellar populations of galaxies, studying trends in mass from dwarfs to group-scale halos. We find that more massive halos acquire this matter earlier than lower-mass halos, reflecting an overall earlier assembly of their in situ stellar mass. Defining the Lagrangian half-mass radius R_{rm L, 1/2} of a galaxy as the distance containing half of the mass that will form its in situ stars by z=0, we find that R_{rm L, 1/2} is larger for more massive halos at early times, reflecting larger "in situ Lagrangian regions." However, the dependence of this radius on halo mass becomes flat at z simeq 3 and then inverts toward z=0. In addition, R_{rm L, 1/2} increases rapidly with redshift, surpassing the virial radii of halos at z sim 2. This marks the cosmic epoch at which most of the gas that eventually forms the in situ stars of galaxies leaves the intergalactic medium (IGM) and enters halos, a transition that occurs earlier for more massive halos. The formation redshift of the in situ stellar component increases with halo mass, while the formation redshift of the dark matter halo decreases, indicative of a differential assembly history between these two components. Finally, we decomposed the z=0 in situ stellar mass into its distinct modes of accretion. Smooth accretion from the IGM is the most important for low-mass galaxies, while mergers and satellite-stripped gas become relevant and even dominant only for high-mass galaxies.

Open source developers have emerged as key actors in the political economy of artificial intelligence (AI), with open model development being recognised as an alternative to closed-source AI development. However, we still have a limited understanding of collaborative practices in open source AI. This paper responds to this gap with a three-part quantitative analysis of development activity on the Hugging Face (HF) Hub, a popular platform for building, sharing, and demonstrating models. First, we find that various types of activity across 348,181 model, 65,761 dataset, and 156,642 space repositories exhibit right-skewed distributions. Activity is extremely imbalanced between repositories; for example, over 70% of models have 0 downloads, while 1% account for 99% of downloads. Second, we analyse a snapshot of the social network structure of collaboration on models, finding that the community has a core-periphery structure, with a core of prolific developers and a majority of isolate developers (89%). Upon removing isolates, collaboration is characterised by high reciprocity regardless of developers' network positions. Third, we examine model adoption through the lens of model usage in spaces, finding that a minority of models, developed by a handful of companies, are widely used on the HF Hub. Overall, we find that various types of activity on the HF Hub are characterised by Pareto distributions, congruent with prior observations about OSS development patterns on platforms like GitHub. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of the findings and recommendations for (open source) AI researchers, developers, and policymakers.

We explore a generative machine learning-based approach for estimating multi-dimensional probability density functions (PDFs) in a target sample using a statistically independent but related control sample - a common challenge in particle physics data analysis. The generative model must accurately reproduce individual observable distributions while preserving the correlations between them, based on the input multidimensional distribution from the control sample. Here we present a conditional normalizing flow model (CNF) based on a chain of bijectors which learns to transform unpaired simulation events to data events. We assess the performance of the CNF model in the context of LHC Higgs to diphoton analysis, where we use the CNF model to convert a Monte Carlo diphoton sample to one that models data. We show that the CNF model can accurately model complex data distributions and correlations. We also leverage the recently popularized Modified Differential Multiplier Method (MDMM) to improve the convergence of our model and assign physical meaning to usually arbitrary loss-function parameters.

The origins of the colours of Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) represent a crucial unresolved question, central to understanding the history of our Solar System. Recent observational surveys revealed correlations between the eccentricity and inclination of TNOs, and their colours. This rekindled the long-standing debate on whether these colours reflect the conditions of TNO formation or their subsequent evolution. We address this question using a model-agnostic, data-driven approach that unanimously converges to a common causal graph from the analysis of two different datasets, each from two different conditional independence test methods. For evaluation, we demonstrate how our model is consistent with the currently-accepted paradigms of TNOs' dynamical histories, without involving any orbital modelling or physics-based assumptions. Our causal model (with no knowledge of the existence of Neptune) predicts the need for an unknown confounding variable, consistent with Neptune's effects. The model predicts that the colour of TNOs is the root cause of their inclination distribution, rather than the other way around. This strongly suggests that the colours of TNOs reflect an underlying dynamical property, most likely their formation location. Our model excludes formation scenarios that invoke substantial colour modification by subsequent evolution. We conclude that the colours of TNOs are predominantly primordial.

There is a growing gap between the impressive results of deep image generative models and classical algorithms that offer theoretical guarantees. The former suffer from mode collapse or memorization issues, limiting their application to scientific data. The latter require restrictive assumptions such as log-concavity to escape the curse of dimensionality. We partially bridge this gap by introducing conditionally strongly log-concave (CSLC) models, which factorize the data distribution into a product of conditional probability distributions that are strongly log-concave. This factorization is obtained with orthogonal projectors adapted to the data distribution. It leads to efficient parameter estimation and sampling algorithms, with theoretical guarantees, although the data distribution is not globally log-concave. We show that several challenging multiscale processes are conditionally log-concave using wavelet packet orthogonal projectors. Numerical results are shown for physical fields such as the varphi^4 model and weak lensing convergence maps with higher resolution than in previous works.

We study the scaling properties of avalanche activity in the two-dimensional Abelian sandpile model. Instead of the conventional avalanche size distribution, we analyze the site activity distribution, which measures how often a site participates in avalanches when grains are added across the lattice. Using numerical simulations for system sizes up to \(L = 160\), averaged over \(10^4\) configurations, we determine the probability distribution \(P(A, L)\) of site activities. The results show that \(P(A, L)\) follows a finite-size scaling form \[ P(A, L) \sim L^{-2} F\Big(A{L^2}\Big). \] For small values \(A \ll L^2\) the scaling function behaves as \[ F(u) \sim u^{-1/2}, \quad corresponding to \quad P(A) \sim 1{L}, \] while for large activities \(A \sim O(L^2)\) the distribution decays as \[ F(u) \sim \exp\big(-c_3 u - c_4 u^2\big). \] The crossover between these two regimes occurs at \[ A^* \sim 0.1 \, L^2, \] marking the threshold between typical and highly excitable sites. This characterization of local avalanche activity provides complementary information to the usual avalanche size statistics, highlighting how local regions serve as frequent conduits for critical dynamics. These results may help connect sandpile models to real-world self-organized critical systems where only partial local activity can be observed.

Galaxy number counts suggest that we are located within the Gpc-scale KBC void. The Hubble tension might arise due to gravitationally driven outflow from this void, as explored in detail by Haslbauer et al. We explore how the impact of the void on redshift decays at large distances. We define H_0(z) as the present expansion rate H_0 that would be inferred from observations in a narrow redshift range centred on z. We find H_0(z) in three different ways, all of which give similar results. We then compare these results with the observations of Jia et al., who were careful to minimise the impact of correlations between H_0 measurements from data in different redshift bins. We find reasonable agreement with their results for the Gaussian and Exponential void underdensity profiles, although the agreement is less good in the Maxwell-Boltzmann case. The latter profile causes severe disagreement with the observed bulk flow curve at z < 0.1 (Mazurenko et al.), so the tension with higher redshift data further highlights that the deepest part of the KBC void is probably near its centre. The observations show a decline of H_0(z) towards the background Planck value in qualitative agreement with the considered models, even if we use a larger void. The good overall agreement with the recent results of Jia et al. suggests that the local supervoid evident from the galaxy luminosity density out to a Gpc might also solve the Hubble tension while retaining a low background H_0 consistent with Planck data, assuming enhanced structure formation on >100 Mpc scales.

We present the photometric properties of galaxies in the First Light and Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES). The simulations trace the evolution of galaxies in a range of overdensities through the Epoch of Reionistion (EoR). With a novel weighting scheme we combine these overdensities, extending significantly the dynamic range of observed composite distribution functions compared to periodic simulation boxes. FLARES predicts a significantly larger number of intrinsically bright galaxies, which can be explained through a simple model linking dust-attenuation to the metal content of the interstellar medium, using a line-of-sight (LOS) extinction model. With this model we present the photometric properties of the FLARES galaxies for z in [5,10]. We show that the ultraviolet (UV) luminosity function (LF) matches the observations at all redshifts. The function is fit by Schechter and double power-law forms, with the latter being favoured at these redshifts by the FLARES composite UV LF. We also present predictions for the UV continuum slope as well as the attenuation in the UV. The impact of environment on the UV LF is also explored, with the brightest galaxies forming in the densest environments. We then present the line luminosity and equivalent widths of some prominent nebular emission lines arising from the galaxies, finding rough agreement with available observations. We also look at the relative contribution of obscured and unobscured star formation, finding comparable contributions at these redshifts.

We present cosmological parameter results from the final full-mission Planck measurements of the CMB anisotropies. We find good consistency with the standard spatially-flat 6-parameter LambdaCDM cosmology having a power-law spectrum of adiabatic scalar perturbations (denoted "base LambdaCDM" in this paper), from polarization, temperature, and lensing, separately and in combination. A combined analysis gives dark matter density Omega_c h^2 = 0.120pm 0.001, baryon density Omega_b h^2 = 0.0224pm 0.0001, scalar spectral index n_s = 0.965pm 0.004, and optical depth tau = 0.054pm 0.007 (in this abstract we quote 68,% confidence regions on measured parameters and 95,% on upper limits). The angular acoustic scale is measured to 0.03,% precision, with 100theta_*=1.0411pm 0.0003. These results are only weakly dependent on the cosmological model and remain stable, with somewhat increased errors, in many commonly considered extensions. Assuming the base-LambdaCDM cosmology, the inferred late-Universe parameters are: Hubble constant H_0 = (67.4pm 0.5)km/s/Mpc; matter density parameter Omega_m = 0.315pm 0.007; and matter fluctuation amplitude sigma_8 = 0.811pm 0.006. We find no compelling evidence for extensions to the base-LambdaCDM model. Combining with BAO we constrain the effective extra relativistic degrees of freedom to be N_{rm eff} = 2.99pm 0.17, and the neutrino mass is tightly constrained to sum m_nu< 0.12eV. The CMB spectra continue to prefer higher lensing amplitudes than predicted in base -LambdaCDM at over 2,sigma, which pulls some parameters that affect the lensing amplitude away from the base-LambdaCDM model; however, this is not supported by the lensing reconstruction or (in models that also change the background geometry) BAO data. (Abridged)

In this work we introduce a physically motivated method of performing disc/spheroid decomposition of simulated galaxies, which we apply to the Eagle sample. We make use of the HEALPix package to create Mollweide projections of the angular momentum map of each galaxy's stellar particles. A number of features arise on the angular momentum space which allows us to decompose galaxies and classify them into different morphological types. We assign stellar particles with angular separation of less/greater than 30 degrees from the densest grid cell on the angular momentum sphere to the disc/spheroid components, respectively. We analyse the spatial distribution for a subsample of galaxies and show that the surface density profiles of the disc and spheroid closely follow an exponential and a Sersic profile, respectively. In addition discs rotate faster, have smaller velocity dispersions, are younger and are more metal rich than spheroids. Thus our morphological classification reproduces the observed properties of such systems. Finally, we demonstrate that our method is able to identify a significant population of galaxies with counter-rotating discs and provide a more realistic classification of such systems compared to previous methods.

World models constitute a promising approach for training reinforcement learning agents in a safe and sample-efficient manner. Recent world models predominantly operate on sequences of discrete latent variables to model environment dynamics. However, this compression into a compact discrete representation may ignore visual details that are important for reinforcement learning. Concurrently, diffusion models have become a dominant approach for image generation, challenging well-established methods modeling discrete latents. Motivated by this paradigm shift, we introduce DIAMOND (DIffusion As a Model Of eNvironment Dreams), a reinforcement learning agent trained in a diffusion world model. We analyze the key design choices that are required to make diffusion suitable for world modeling, and demonstrate how improved visual details can lead to improved agent performance. DIAMOND achieves a mean human normalized score of 1.46 on the competitive Atari 100k benchmark; a new best for agents trained entirely within a world model. To foster future research on diffusion for world modeling, we release our code, agents and playable world models at https://github.com/eloialonso/diamond.

We present Mantis Shrimp, a multi-survey deep learning model for photometric redshift estimation that fuses ultra-violet (GALEX), optical (PanSTARRS), and infrared (UnWISE) imagery. Machine learning is now an established approach for photometric redshift estimation, with generally acknowledged higher performance in areas with a high density of spectroscopically identified galaxies over template-based methods. Multiple works have shown that image-based convolutional neural networks can outperform tabular-based color/magnitude models. In comparison to tabular models, image models have additional design complexities: it is largely unknown how to fuse inputs from different instruments which have different resolutions or noise properties. The Mantis Shrimp model estimates the conditional density estimate of redshift using cutout images. The density estimates are well calibrated and the point estimates perform well in the distribution of available spectroscopically confirmed galaxies with (bias = 1e-2), scatter (NMAD = 2.44e-2) and catastrophic outlier rate (eta=17.53%). We find that early fusion approaches (e.g., resampling and stacking images from different instruments) match the performance of late fusion approaches (e.g., concatenating latent space representations), so that the design choice ultimately is left to the user. Finally, we study how the models learn to use information across bands, finding evidence that our models successfully incorporates information from all surveys. The applicability of our model to the analysis of large populations of galaxies is limited by the speed of downloading cutouts from external servers; however, our model could be useful in smaller studies such as generating priors over redshift for stellar population synthesis.

Score-based models can serve as expressive, data-driven priors for scientific inverse problems. In strong gravitational lensing, they enable posterior inference of a background galaxy from its distorted, multiply-imaged observation. Previous work, however, assumes that the lens mass distribution (and thus the forward operator) is known. We relax this assumption by jointly inferring the source and a parametric lens-mass profile, using a sampler based on GibbsDDRM but operating in continuous time. The resulting reconstructions yield residuals consistent with the observational noise, and the marginal posteriors of the lens parameters recover true values without systematic bias. To our knowledge, this is the first successful demonstration of joint source-and-lens inference with a score-based prior.

Upcoming deep galaxy surveys with JWST will probe galaxy evolution during the epoch of reionisation (EoR, 5leq zleq10) over relatively compact areas (e.g. sim 300\,arcmin^2 for the JADES GTO survey). It is therefore imperative that we understand the degree of survey variance, to evaluate how representative the galaxy populations in these studies will be. We use the First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES) to measure the galaxy bias of various tracers over an unprecedentedly large range in overdensity for a hydrodynamic simulation, and use these relations to assess the impact of bias and clustering on survey variance in the EoR. Star formation is highly biased relative to the underlying dark matter distribution, with the mean ratio of the stellar to dark matter density varying by a factor of 100 between regions of low and high matter overdensity (smoothed on a scale of 14,h^{-1}cMpc). This is reflected in the galaxy distribution --the most massive galaxies are found solely in regions of high overdensity. As a consequence of the above, galaxies in the EoR are highly clustered, which can lead to large variance in survey number counts. For mean number counts Nlesssim 100 (1000), in a unit redshift slice of angular area 300\,arcmin^2 (1.4\,deg^2), the 2-sigma range in N is roughly a factor of four (two). We present relations between the expected variance and survey area for different survey geometries; these relations will be of use to observers wishing to understand the impact of survey variance on their results.

Recent observations have revealed an unusual stellar distribution within the almost dark dwarf galaxy Nube. The galaxy exhibits a remarkably flat stellar distribution, with an effective radius of approximately 6.9 kpc, exceeding the typical size of dwarf galaxies and even surpassing that of ultra-diffuse galaxies (UDGs) with similar stellar masses. The dynamical heating effect of fuzzy dark matter (FDM) may offer an explanation for this extremely diffuse stellar distribution in Nube. In this research, we utilize simulation techniques to investigate this issue and find that a particle mass O (1)times 10^{-23} eV offers a plausible explanation for this peculiar stellar distribution anomaly.

Astrophysical uncertainties in dark matter direct detection experiments are typically addressed by parametrizing the velocity distribution in terms of a few uncertain parameters that vary around some central values. Here we propose a method to optimize over all velocity distributions lying within a given distance measure from a central distribution. We discretize the dark matter velocity distribution as a superposition of streams, and use a variety of information divergences to parametrize its uncertainties. With this, we bracket the limits on the dark matter-nucleon and dark matter-electron scattering cross sections, when the true dark matter velocity distribution deviates from the commonly assumed Maxwell-Boltzmann form. The methodology pursued is general and could be applied to other physics scenarios where a given physical observable depends on a function that is uncertain.

Machine learning models frequently experience performance drops under distribution shifts. The underlying cause of such shifts may be multiple simultaneous factors such as changes in data quality, differences in specific covariate distributions, or changes in the relationship between label and features. When a model does fail during deployment, attributing performance change to these factors is critical for the model developer to identify the root cause and take mitigating actions. In this work, we introduce the problem of attributing performance differences between environments to distribution shifts in the underlying data generating mechanisms. We formulate the problem as a cooperative game where the players are distributions. We define the value of a set of distributions to be the change in model performance when only this set of distributions has changed between environments, and derive an importance weighting method for computing the value of an arbitrary set of distributions. The contribution of each distribution to the total performance change is then quantified as its Shapley value. We demonstrate the correctness and utility of our method on synthetic, semi-synthetic, and real-world case studies, showing its effectiveness in attributing performance changes to a wide range of distribution shifts.

A refined semi-holographic non-Fermi liquid model, in which carrier electrons hybridize with operators of a holographic critical sector, has been proposed recently for strange metallic behavior. The model, consistently with effective theory approach, has two couplings whose ratio is related to the doping. We explain the origin of the linear-in-T resistivity and strange metallic behavior as a consequence of the emergence of a universal form of the spectral function which is independent of the model parameters when the ratio of the two couplings take optimal values determined only by the critical exponent. This universal form fits well with photoemission data of copper oxide samples for under/optimal/over-doping with a fixed exponent over a wide range of temperatures. We further obtain a refined Planckian dissipation scenario in which the scattering time τ= f cdot hbar /(k_B T), with f being O(1) at strong coupling, but O(10) at weak coupling.

We study the problem of designing models for machine learning tasks defined on sets. In contrast to traditional approach of operating on fixed dimensional vectors, we consider objective functions defined on sets that are invariant to permutations. Such problems are widespread, ranging from estimation of population statistics poczos13aistats, to anomaly detection in piezometer data of embankment dams Jung15Exploration, to cosmology Ntampaka16Dynamical,Ravanbakhsh16ICML1. Our main theorem characterizes the permutation invariant functions and provides a family of functions to which any permutation invariant objective function must belong. This family of functions has a special structure which enables us to design a deep network architecture that can operate on sets and which can be deployed on a variety of scenarios including both unsupervised and supervised learning tasks. We also derive the necessary and sufficient conditions for permutation equivariance in deep models. We demonstrate the applicability of our method on population statistic estimation, point cloud classification, set expansion, and outlier detection.

Understanding labor market dynamics is essential for policymakers, employers, and job seekers. However, comprehensive datasets that capture real-world career trajectories are scarce. In this paper, we introduce JobHop, a large-scale public dataset derived from anonymized resumes provided by VDAB, the public employment service in Flanders, Belgium. Utilizing Large Language Models (LLMs), we process unstructured resume data to extract structured career information, which is then mapped to standardized ESCO occupation codes using a multi-label classification model. This results in a rich dataset of over 2.3 million work experiences, extracted from and grouped into more than 391,000 user resumes and mapped to standardized ESCO occupation codes, offering valuable insights into real-world occupational transitions. This dataset enables diverse applications, such as analyzing labor market mobility, job stability, and the effects of career breaks on occupational transitions. It also supports career path prediction and other data-driven decision-making processes. To illustrate its potential, we explore key dataset characteristics, including job distributions, career breaks, and job transitions, demonstrating its value for advancing labor market research.

Understanding the performance of machine learning (ML) models across diverse data distributions is critically important for reliable applications. Despite recent empirical studies positing a near-perfect linear correlation between in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) accuracies, we empirically demonstrate that this correlation is more nuanced under subpopulation shifts. Through rigorous experimentation and analysis across a variety of datasets, models, and training epochs, we demonstrate that OOD performance often has a nonlinear correlation with ID performance in subpopulation shifts. Our findings, which contrast previous studies that have posited a linear correlation in model performance during distribution shifts, reveal a "moon shape" correlation (parabolic uptrend curve) between the test performance on the majority subpopulation and the minority subpopulation. This non-trivial nonlinear correlation holds across model architectures, hyperparameters, training durations, and the imbalance between subpopulations. Furthermore, we found that the nonlinearity of this "moon shape" is causally influenced by the degree of spurious correlations in the training data. Our controlled experiments show that stronger spurious correlation in the training data creates more nonlinear performance correlation. We provide complementary experimental and theoretical analyses for this phenomenon, and discuss its implications for ML reliability and fairness. Our work highlights the importance of understanding the nonlinear effects of model improvement on performance in different subpopulations, and has the potential to inform the development of more equitable and responsible machine learning models.

This paper studies Kernel density estimation for a high-dimensional distribution rho(x). Traditional approaches have focused on the limit of large number of data points n and fixed dimension d. We analyze instead the regime where both the number n of data points y_i and their dimensionality d grow with a fixed ratio alpha=(log n)/d. Our study reveals three distinct statistical regimes for the kernel-based estimate of the density hat rho_h^{D}(x)=1{n h^d}sum_{i=1}^n Kleft(x-y_i{h}right), depending on the bandwidth h: a classical regime for large bandwidth where the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) holds, which is akin to the one found in traditional approaches. Below a certain value of the bandwidth, h_{CLT}(alpha), we find that the CLT breaks down. The statistics of hat rho_h^{D}(x) for a fixed x drawn from rho(x) is given by a heavy-tailed distribution (an alpha-stable distribution). In particular below a value h_G(alpha), we find that hat rho_h^{D}(x) is governed by extreme value statistics: only a few points in the database matter and give the dominant contribution to the density estimator. We provide a detailed analysis for high-dimensional multivariate Gaussian data. We show that the optimal bandwidth threshold based on Kullback-Leibler divergence lies in the new statistical regime identified in this paper. Our findings reveal limitations of classical approaches, show the relevance of these new statistical regimes, and offer new insights for Kernel density estimation in high-dimensional settings.

Multi-agent systems (MAS) utilizing multiple Large Language Model agents with Retrieval Augmented Generation and that can execute code locally may become beneficial in cosmological data analysis. Here, we illustrate a first small step towards AI-assisted analyses and a glimpse of the potential of MAS to automate and optimize scientific workflows in Cosmology. The system architecture of our example package, that builds upon the autogen/ag2 framework, can be applied to MAS in any area of quantitative scientific research. The particular task we apply our methods to is the cosmological parameter analysis of the Atacama Cosmology Telescope lensing power spectrum likelihood using Monte Carlo Markov Chains. Our work-in-progress code is open source and available at https://github.com/CMBAgents/cmbagent.

We present a neural network emulator to constrain the thermal parameters of the intergalactic medium (IGM) at 5.4z6.0 using the Lyman-displaystylealpha (Lydisplaystylealpha) forest flux auto-correlation function. Our auto-differentiable JAX-based framework accelerates the surrogate model generation process using approximately 100 sparsely sampled Nyx hydrodynamical simulations with varying combinations of thermal parameters, i.e., the temperature at mean density T_{{0}}, the slope of the temperaturedisplaystyle-density relation displaystylegamma, and the mean transmission flux langle{F}{rangle}. We show that this emulator has a typical accuracy of 1.0% across the specified redshift range. Bayesian inference of the IGM thermal parameters, incorporating emulator uncertainty propagation, is further expedited using NumPyro Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We compare both the inference results and computational cost of our framework with the traditional nearest-neighbor interpolation approach applied to the same set of mock Lyalpha flux. By examining the credibility contours of the marginalized posteriors for T_{{0}},gamma,and{langle}{F}{rangle} obtained using the emulator, the statistical reliability of measurements is established through inference on 100 realistic mock data sets of the auto-correlation function.

Language models (LMs) are increasingly used as simulacra for people, yet their ability to match the distribution of views of a specific demographic group and be distributionally aligned remains uncertain. This notion of distributional alignment is complex, as there is significant variation in the types of attributes that are simulated. Prior works have underexplored the role of three critical variables -- the question domain, steering method, and distribution expression method -- which motivates our contribution of a benchmark explicitly addressing these dimensions. We construct a dataset expanding beyond political values, create human baselines for this task, and evaluate the extent to which an LM can align with a particular group's opinion distribution to inform design choices of such simulation systems. Our analysis reveals open problems regarding if, and how, LMs can be used to simulate humans, and that LLMs can more accurately describe the opinion distribution than simulate such distributions.

We develop a linear perturbative formalism to compute the response of an inhomogeneous stellar disk embedded in a non-responsive dark matter halo to perturbations like bars, spiral arms and satellite galaxy encounters. Without self-gravity to reinforce it, the response of a Fourier mode phase mixes away due to an intrinsic spread in the vertical (Omega_z), radial (Omega_r) and azimuthal (Omega_phi) frequencies, giving rise to local phase-space spirals. Collisional diffusion due to scattering of stars by structures like giant molecular clouds causes super-exponential damping of the phase-spiral amplitude. The z-v_z phase-spiral is 1-armed (2-armed) for vertically anti-symmetric (symmetric) bending (breathing) modes. Only transient perturbations with timescales (tau_{P}) comparable to the vertical oscillation period (tau_z sim 1/Omega_z) trigger z-v_z phase-spirals. Each (n,l,m) mode of the response to impulsive (tau_{P}<tau=1/(nOmega_z+lOmega_r+mOmega_phi)) perturbations is power law (sim tau_{P}/tau) suppressed, but that to adiabatic (tau_{P}>tau) perturbations is exponentially weak (sim left[-left(tau_{mathrm{P}/tauright)^alpharight]}) except resonant (tauto infty) modes. Slower (tau_{P}>tau_z) perturbations, e.g., distant encounters with satellite galaxies, induce stronger bending modes. If the Gaia phase-spiral was triggered by a satellite, Sagittarius is the leading contender as it dominates the Solar neighborhood response of the Milky Way disk to satellite encounters. However, survival against collisional damping necessitates that the impact occurred within sim 0.6-0.7 Gyr ago. We discuss how the detailed galactic potential dictates the phase-spiral shape: phase mixing occurs slower and phase-spirals are less wound in the outer disk and in presence of an ambient halo.

Modeling and estimating mixed memberships for overlapping unipartite un-weighted networks has been well studied in recent years. However, to our knowledge, there is no model for a more general case, the overlapping bipartite weighted networks. To close this gap, we introduce a novel model, the Bipartite Mixed Membership Distribution-Free (BiMMDF) model. Our model allows an adjacency matrix to follow any distribution as long as its expectation has a block structure related to node membership. In particular, BiMMDF can model overlapping bipartite signed networks and it is an extension of many previous models, including the popular mixed membership stochastic blcokmodels. An efficient algorithm with a theoretical guarantee of consistent estimation is applied to fit BiMMDF. We then obtain the separation conditions of BiMMDF for different distributions. Furthermore, we also consider missing edges for sparse networks. The advantage of BiMMDF is demonstrated in extensive synthetic networks and eight real-world networks.

While the influence of galaxy clusters on galaxy evolution is relatively well-understood, the impact of the dynamical states of these clusters is less clear. This paper series explores how the dynamical state of galaxy clusters affects their galaxy populations' physical and morphological properties. The primary aim of this first paper is to evaluate the dynamical state of 87 massive (M_{500} geq 1.5 times 10^{14} M_{odot}) galaxy clusters at low redshifts (0.10 leq z leq 0.35). This will allow us to have a well-characterized sample for analyzing physical and morphological properties in our next work. We employ six dynamical state proxies utilizing optical and X-ray imaging data. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is applied to integrate these proxies effectively, allowing for robust classification of galaxy clusters into relaxed, intermediate, and disturbed states based on their dynamical characteristics. The methodology successfully segregates the galaxy clusters into the three dynamical states. Examination of the galaxy distributions in optical wavelengths and gas distributions in X-ray further confirms the consistency of these classifications. The clusters' dynamical states are statistically distinguishable, providing a clear categorization for further analysis.

We provide a concise framework for generalized ensemble theory through a matrix-based approach. By introducing an observation matrix, any discrete probability distribution, including those for non-equilibrium steady states, can be expressed as a generalized Boltzmann distribution, with observables and conjugate variables as the basis and coordinates in a linear space. In this framework, we identify the minimal sufficient statistics required for inferring the Boltzmann distribution. Furthermore, we show that the Hadamard and Vandermonde matrices are suitable observation matrices for spin systems and random walks. In master equation systems, the probability flux observation matrix facilitates the identification of detailed balance violations. Our findings provide a new approach to developing generalized ensemble theory for non-equilibrium steady-state systems.

In reinforcement learning and imitation learning, an object of central importance is the state distribution induced by the policy. It plays a crucial role in the policy gradient theorem, and references to it--along with the related state-action distribution--can be found all across the literature. Despite its importance, the state distribution is mostly discussed indirectly and theoretically, rather than being modeled explicitly. The reason being an absence of appropriate density estimation tools. In this work, we investigate applications of a normalizing flow-based model for the aforementioned distributions. In particular, we use a pair of flows coupled through the optimality point of the Donsker-Varadhan representation of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, for distribution matching based imitation learning. Our algorithm, Coupled Flow Imitation Learning (CFIL), achieves state-of-the-art performance on benchmark tasks with a single expert trajectory and extends naturally to a variety of other settings, including the subsampled and state-only regimes.

We present a probabilistic model for point cloud generation, which is fundamental for various 3D vision tasks such as shape completion, upsampling, synthesis and data augmentation. Inspired by the diffusion process in non-equilibrium thermodynamics, we view points in point clouds as particles in a thermodynamic system in contact with a heat bath, which diffuse from the original distribution to a noise distribution. Point cloud generation thus amounts to learning the reverse diffusion process that transforms the noise distribution to the distribution of a desired shape. Specifically, we propose to model the reverse diffusion process for point clouds as a Markov chain conditioned on certain shape latent. We derive the variational bound in closed form for training and provide implementations of the model. Experimental results demonstrate that our model achieves competitive performance in point cloud generation and auto-encoding. The code is available at https://github.com/luost26/diffusion-point-cloud.

In this paper, we emphasise the recent observational findings from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Data Release 2 (DESI DR2), which provide compelling evidence for a possible deviation from the standard ΛCDM (Cold Dark Matter) cosmology, suggesting the presence of a dynamically evolving effective dark energy component. Motivated by this, we construct a theoretical framework in which a massive cosmological vector field, B^μ, couples non-minimally to the background curvature through marginal interactions, offering a controlled mechanism to realise the deviation from the ΛCDM model. A detailed analysis of the effective Equation of State (EoS) parameter w(tilde H) reveals a narrow region of parameter space consistent with current cosmological observations presented by DESI. The analysis yields a stringent upper bound for the coupling constant λ to be λ<2.98times10^{-11}, a very strong bound on mass 3.1356times10^{-66}~g leq m leq 3.3627times10^{-66}~g, and the admissible range -0.405 leq log_{10}tildeγleq -0.38 for which present-day value w_0 = w(tilde H = 1) corresponding to a deviation δ= w_0 + 1 that lies within the region 0.107 leq δleq 0.217. This interval reproduces the deviation inferred from the combined DESI, Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB), and Pantheon+ data, reflecting a controlled departure from the ΛCDM behaviour. In summary, the results suggest that the proposed framework of a massive vector field can account for the departure from ΛCDM behaviour highlighted by DESI in the current cosmic acceleration. Furthermore, the framework approaches the ΛCDM behaviour in late-time tgtrsim28 Gyr, establishing a direct phenomenological link between the underlying parameters and the observed dynamical nature of dark energy.

The capabilities of natural language models trained on large-scale data have increased immensely over the past few years. Open source libraries such as HuggingFace have made these models easily available and accessible. While prior research has identified biases in large language models, this paper considers biases contained in the most popular versions of these models when applied `out-of-the-box' for downstream tasks. We focus on generative language models as they are well-suited for extracting biases inherited from training data. Specifically, we conduct an in-depth analysis of GPT-2, which is the most downloaded text generation model on HuggingFace, with over half a million downloads per month. We assess biases related to occupational associations for different protected categories by intersecting gender with religion, sexuality, ethnicity, political affiliation, and continental name origin. Using a template-based data collection pipeline, we collect 396K sentence completions made by GPT-2 and find: (i) The machine-predicted jobs are less diverse and more stereotypical for women than for men, especially for intersections; (ii) Intersectional interactions are highly relevant for occupational associations, which we quantify by fitting 262 logistic models; (iii) For most occupations, GPT-2 reflects the skewed gender and ethnicity distribution found in US Labor Bureau data, and even pulls the societally-skewed distribution towards gender parity in cases where its predictions deviate from real labor market observations. This raises the normative question of what language models should learn - whether they should reflect or correct for existing inequalities.

Due to wave interference, an ultralight light dark matter halo has stochastic, granular substructures which can scatter stars, leading to the heating of stellar distributions. Studies of this phenomenon have placed lower bounds on the ultralight dark matter mass. In this paper we investigate a number of relevant systematic effects, including: (1) the heating by the central soliton, (2) the self-gravity of the stars, (3) the suppression of heating in a tidally stripped halo, and (4) the tidal field suppression of heating when the stellar cluster is much smaller than the de Broglie wavelength. The first three effects are quantified by studying the dynamics of stellar particles in Schrodinger-Poisson simulations of ultralight dark matter halos, while the last effect is studied using analytic approximations.

Recent advances in AI weather forecasting have led to the emergence of so-called "foundation models", typically defined by expensive pretraining and minimal fine-tuning for downstream tasks. However, in the natural sciences, a desirable foundation model should also encode meaningful statistical relationships between the underlying physical variables. This study evaluates the performance of the state-of-the-art Aurora foundation model in predicting hydrological variables, which were not considered during pretraining. We introduce a lightweight approach using shallow decoders trained on the latent representations of the pretrained model to predict these new variables. As a baseline, we compare this to fine-tuning the full model, which allows further optimization of the latent space while incorporating new variables into both inputs and outputs. The decoder-based approach requires 50% less training time and 35% less memory, while achieving strong accuracy across various hydrological variables and preserving desirable properties of the foundation model, such as autoregressive stability. Notably, decoder accuracy depends on the physical correlation between the new variables and those used during pretraining, indicating that Aurora's latent space captures meaningful physical relationships. In this sense, we argue that an important quality metric for foundation models in Earth sciences is their ability to be extended to new variables without a full fine-tuning. This provides a new perspective for making foundation models more accessible to communities with limited computational resources, while supporting broader adoption in Earth sciences.

Assessing and comparing player skill in online multiplayer gaming environments is essential for fair matchmaking and player engagement. Traditional ranking models like Elo and Glicko-2, designed for two-player games, are insufficient for the complexity of multi-player, asymmetric team-based matches. To address this gap, the OpenSkill library offers a suite of sophisticated, fast, and adaptable models tailored for such dynamics. Drawing from Bayesian inference methods, OpenSkill provides a more accurate representation of individual player contributions and speeds up the computation of ranks. This paper introduces the OpenSkill library, featuring a Python implementation of the Plackett-Luce model among others, highlighting its performance advantages and predictive accuracy against proprietary systems like TrueSkill. OpenSkill is a valuable tool for game developers and researchers, ensuring a responsive and fair gaming experience by efficiently adjusting player rankings based on game outcomes. The library's support for time decay and diligent documentation further aid in its practical application, making it a robust solution for the nuanced world of multiplayer ranking systems. This paper also acknowledges areas for future enhancement, such as partial play and contribution weighting, emphasizing the library's ongoing development to meet the evolving needs of online gaming communities.

Many previous studies have imposed stringent constraints on the particle mass of fuzzy dark matter (FDM) by analyzing observations of Galactic satellite galaxies, which show no significant evidence of the heating effect predicted by FDM. However, these analyses have generally neglected the tidal influence of the Milky Way, which can substantially suppress the FDM-induced heating in satellites. This oversight arises from computational challenges of accurately capturing the tidal effects in FDM simulations. In this study, we present a novel simulation framework that, for the first time, enables the simulation of an FDM-stellar system within an observationally motivated gravitational potential of the Milky Way. This framework incorporates the diverse Galactic components, including the gravitational influence of the Large Magellanic Cloud. Using the Fornax dwarf galaxy as a case study, we demonstrate that tidal effects significantly alleviate the tension between observational data and the predicted heating effect for an FDM particle mass of m_asim 10^{-22} eV.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is a critical requirement for the deployment of deep neural networks. This paper introduces the HEAT model, a new post-hoc OOD detection method estimating the density of in-distribution (ID) samples using hybrid energy-based models (EBM) in the feature space of a pre-trained backbone. HEAT complements prior density estimators of the ID density, e.g. parametric models like the Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), to provide an accurate yet robust density estimation. A second contribution is to leverage the EBM framework to provide a unified density estimation and to compose several energy terms. Extensive experiments demonstrate the significance of the two contributions. HEAT sets new state-of-the-art OOD detection results on the CIFAR-10 / CIFAR-100 benchmark as well as on the large-scale Imagenet benchmark. The code is available at: https://github.com/MarcLafon/heatood.

Building world models that accurately and comprehensively represent the real world is the utmost aspiration for conditional image generative models as it would enable their use as world simulators. For these models to be successful world models, they should not only excel at image quality and prompt-image consistency but also ensure high representation diversity. However, current research in generative models mostly focuses on creative applications that are predominantly concerned with human preferences of image quality and aesthetics. We note that generative models have inference time mechanisms - or knobs - that allow the control of generation consistency, quality, and diversity. In this paper, we use state-of-the-art text-to-image and image-and-text-to-image models and their knobs to draw consistency-diversity-realism Pareto fronts that provide a holistic view on consistency-diversity-realism multi-objective. Our experiments suggest that realism and consistency can both be improved simultaneously; however there exists a clear tradeoff between realism/consistency and diversity. By looking at Pareto optimal points, we note that earlier models are better at representation diversity and worse in consistency/realism, and more recent models excel in consistency/realism while decreasing significantly the representation diversity. By computing Pareto fronts on a geodiverse dataset, we find that the first version of latent diffusion models tends to perform better than more recent models in all axes of evaluation, and there exist pronounced consistency-diversity-realism disparities between geographical regions. Overall, our analysis clearly shows that there is no best model and the choice of model should be determined by the downstream application. With this analysis, we invite the research community to consider Pareto fronts as an analytical tool to measure progress towards world models.

In this article, we consider a newly proposed parameterization of the viscosity coefficient zeta, specifically zeta=zeta_0 {Omega^s_m} H , where zeta_0 = zeta_0{{Omega^s_{m_0}}} within the coincident f(Q) gravity formalism. We consider a non-linear function f(Q)= -Q +alpha Q^n, where alpha and n are arbitrary model parameters, which is a power-law correction to the STEGR scenario. We find an autonomous system by invoking the dimensionless density parameters as the governing phase-space variables. We discuss the physical significance of the model corresponding to the parameter choices n=-1 and n=2 along with the exponent choices s=0, 0.5, and 1.05. We find that model I shows the stable de-Sitter type or stable phantom type (depending on the choice of exponent s) behavior with no transition epoch, whereas model II shows the evolutionary phase from the radiation epoch to the accelerated de-Sitter epoch via passing through the matter-dominated epoch. Hence, we conclude that model I provides a good description of the late-time cosmology but fails to describe the transition epoch, whereas model II modifies the description in the context of the early universe and provides a good description of the matter and radiation era along with the transition phase.

We propose DOME, a diffusion-based world model that predicts future occupancy frames based on past occupancy observations. The ability of this world model to capture the evolution of the environment is crucial for planning in autonomous driving. Compared to 2D video-based world models, the occupancy world model utilizes a native 3D representation, which features easily obtainable annotations and is modality-agnostic. This flexibility has the potential to facilitate the development of more advanced world models. Existing occupancy world models either suffer from detail loss due to discrete tokenization or rely on simplistic diffusion architectures, leading to inefficiencies and difficulties in predicting future occupancy with controllability. Our DOME exhibits two key features:(1) High-Fidelity and Long-Duration Generation. We adopt a spatial-temporal diffusion transformer to predict future occupancy frames based on historical context. This architecture efficiently captures spatial-temporal information, enabling high-fidelity details and the ability to generate predictions over long durations. (2)Fine-grained Controllability. We address the challenge of controllability in predictions by introducing a trajectory resampling method, which significantly enhances the model's ability to generate controlled predictions. Extensive experiments on the widely used nuScenes dataset demonstrate that our method surpasses existing baselines in both qualitative and quantitative evaluations, establishing a new state-of-the-art performance on nuScenes. Specifically, our approach surpasses the baseline by 10.5% in mIoU and 21.2% in IoU for occupancy reconstruction and by 36.0% in mIoU and 24.6% in IoU for 4D occupancy forecasting.

The collisionless Boltzmann equation (CBE) is a fundamental equation that governs the dynamics of a broad range of astrophysical systems from space plasma to star clusters and galaxies. It is computationally expensive to integrate the CBE directly in a multi-dimensional phase space, and thus the applications to realistic astrophysical problems have been limited so far. Recently, Todorova & Steijl (2020) proposed an efficient quantum algorithm to solve the CBE with significantly reduced computational complexity. We extend the algorithm to perform quantum simulations of self-gravitating systems, incorporating the method to calculate gravity with the major Fourier modes of the density distribution extracted from the solution-encoding quantum state. Our method improves the dependency of time and space complexities on Nv , the number of grid points in each velocity coordinate, compared to the classical simulation methods. We then conduct some numerical demonstrations of our method. We first run a 1+1 dimensional test calculation of free streaming motion on 64*64 grids using 13 simulated qubits and validate our method. We then perform simulations of Jeans collapse, and compare the result with analytic and linear theory calculations. It will thus allow us to perform large-scale CBE simulations on future quantum computers.

Colloquially speaking, image generation models based upon diffusion processes are frequently said to exhibit "hallucinations," samples that could never occur in the training data. But where do such hallucinations come from? In this paper, we study a particular failure mode in diffusion models, which we term mode interpolation. Specifically, we find that diffusion models smoothly "interpolate" between nearby data modes in the training set, to generate samples that are completely outside the support of the original training distribution; this phenomenon leads diffusion models to generate artifacts that never existed in real data (i.e., hallucinations). We systematically study the reasons for, and the manifestation of this phenomenon. Through experiments on 1D and 2D Gaussians, we show how a discontinuous loss landscape in the diffusion model's decoder leads to a region where any smooth approximation will cause such hallucinations. Through experiments on artificial datasets with various shapes, we show how hallucination leads to the generation of combinations of shapes that never existed. Finally, we show that diffusion models in fact know when they go out of support and hallucinate. This is captured by the high variance in the trajectory of the generated sample towards the final few backward sampling process. Using a simple metric to capture this variance, we can remove over 95% of hallucinations at generation time while retaining 96% of in-support samples. We conclude our exploration by showing the implications of such hallucination (and its removal) on the collapse (and stabilization) of recursive training on synthetic data with experiments on MNIST and 2D Gaussians dataset. We release our code at https://github.com/locuslab/diffusion-model-hallucination.

Using data from the Galaxy and Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey, we investigate how galaxy properties correlate with the local environment, focusing on the two southern regions of the survey (G02 and G23) that have not previously been examined in this context. We employ two-point and marked correlation functions to quantify the environmental dependence of galaxy color, stellar mass, luminosity across the u, g, r, J, and K bands, as well as star formation rate (SFR) and specific star formation rate (sSFR). We also assess the impact of redshift incompleteness and cosmic variance on these clustering measurements. Our results show that u-r and g-r colors are most strongly correlated with local overdensity, followed by stellar mass. The sSFR exhibits a clear inverse relationship with density of the environment, consistent with the trend observed for u-band luminosity, which traces young stellar populations. In contrast, galaxies brighter in the g, J, and K bands preferentially inhabit denser regions. By comparing our measurements from the southern regions with those from the equatorial regions of GAMA, we find that cosmic variance does not significantly influence our conclusions. However, redshift incompleteness affects the clustering measurements, as revealed through comparisons of subsets within the G02 region. The measured correlations provide key constraints for models of galaxy assembly across mass and environment, while the environmental trends in color and near-infrared luminosity offer a means to trace stellar mass growth and quenching with redshift.

Clustering is a widely deployed unsupervised learning tool. Model-based clustering is a flexible framework to tackle data heterogeneity when the clusters have different shapes. Likelihood-based inference for mixture distributions often involves non-convex and high-dimensional objective functions, imposing difficult computational and statistical challenges. The classic expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is a computationally thrifty iterative method that maximizes a surrogate function minorizing the log-likelihood of observed data in each iteration, which however suffers from bad local maxima even in the special case of the standard Gaussian mixture model with common isotropic covariance matrices. On the other hand, recent studies reveal that the unique global solution of a semidefinite programming (SDP) relaxed K-means achieves the information-theoretically sharp threshold for perfectly recovering the cluster labels under the standard Gaussian mixture model. In this paper, we extend the SDP approach to a general setting by integrating cluster labels as model parameters and propose an iterative likelihood adjusted SDP (iLA-SDP) method that directly maximizes the exact observed likelihood in the presence of data heterogeneity. By lifting the cluster assignment to group-specific membership matrices, iLA-SDP avoids centroids estimation -- a key feature that allows exact recovery under well-separateness of centroids without being trapped by their adversarial configurations. Thus iLA-SDP is less sensitive than EM to initialization and more stable on high-dimensional data. Our numeric experiments demonstrate that iLA-SDP can achieve lower mis-clustering errors over several widely used clustering methods including K-means, SDP and EM algorithms.

Post-hoc out-of-distribution (OOD) detection has garnered intensive attention in reliable machine learning. Many efforts have been dedicated to deriving score functions based on logits, distances, or rigorous data distribution assumptions to identify low-scoring OOD samples. Nevertheless, these estimate scores may fail to accurately reflect the true data density or impose impractical constraints. To provide a unified perspective on density-based score design, we propose a novel theoretical framework grounded in Bregman divergence, which extends distribution considerations to encompass an exponential family of distributions. Leveraging the conjugation constraint revealed in our theorem, we introduce a ConjNorm method, reframing density function design as a search for the optimal norm coefficient p against the given dataset. In light of the computational challenges of normalization, we devise an unbiased and analytically tractable estimator of the partition function using the Monte Carlo-based importance sampling technique. Extensive experiments across OOD detection benchmarks empirically demonstrate that our proposed ConjNorm has established a new state-of-the-art in a variety of OOD detection setups, outperforming the current best method by up to 13.25% and 28.19% (FPR95) on CIFAR-100 and ImageNet-1K, respectively.

Large language models perform near-Bayesian inference yet violate permutation invariance on exchangeable data. We resolve this by showing transformers minimize expected conditional description length (cross-entropy) over orderings, E_pi[ell(Y mid Gamma_pi(X))], which admits a Kolmogorov-complexity interpretation up to additive constants, rather than the permutation-invariant description length ell(Y mid X). This makes them Bayesian in expectation, not in realization. We derive (i) a Quantified Martingale Violation bound showing order-induced deviations scale as O(log n) with constants; (ii) the Expectation-level Decompression Law linking information budgets to reliability for Bernoulli predicates; and (iii) deployable planners (B2T/RoH/ISR) for answer/abstain decisions. Empirically, permutation dispersion follows a+bln n (Qwen2-7B b approx 0.377, Llama-3.1-8B b approx 0.147); permutation mixtures improve ground-truth likelihood/accuracy; and randomized dose-response shows hallucinations drop by sim 0.13 per additional nat. A pre-specified audit with a fixed ISR=1.0 achieves near-0\% hallucinations via calibrated refusal at 24\% abstention. The framework turns hallucinations into predictable compression failures and enables principled information budgeting.

This paper studies the properties of the Multiply Iterated Poisson Process (MIPP), a stochastic process constructed by repeatedly time-changing a Poisson process, and its applications in ruin theory. Like standard Poisson processes, MIPPs have exponentially distributed sojourn times (waiting times between jumps). We explicitly derive the probabilities of all possible jump sizes at the first jump and obtain the Laplace transform of the joint distribution of the first jump time and its corresponding jump size. In ruin theory, the classical Cramér-Lundberg model assumes that claims arrive independently according to a Poisson process. In contrast, our model employs an MIPP to allow for clustered arrivals, reflecting real-world scenarios, such as catastrophic events. Under this new framework, we derive the corresponding scale function in closed form, facilitating accurate calculations of the probability of ruin in the presence of clustered claims. These results improve the modeling of extreme risks and have practical implications for insurance solvency assessments, reinsurance pricing, and capital reserve estimation.

Integral field units (IFU) have extended our knowledge of galactic properties to kpc (or, sometimes, even smaller) patches of galaxies. These scales are where the physics driving galaxy evolution (feedback, chemical enrichment, etc.) take place. Quantifying the spatially-resolved properties of galaxies, both observationally and theoretically, is therefore critical to our understanding of galaxy evolution. To this end, we investigate spatially-resolved scaling relations within central galaxies (M_star>10^{9.0}) at z=0 in IllustrisTNG. We examine both the resolved star-forming main sequence (rSFMS) and the resolved mass-metallicity relation (rMZR) using 1~{rm kpc}times1~{rm kpc} maps of galaxies. We find that the rSFMS in IllustrisTNG is well-described by a power-law, but has some dependence on the host galaxy's mass. Conversely, the rMZR for IllustrisTNG can be described by a single power-law at low stellar mass surface density that flattens at high surface densities and is independent of host galaxy mass. We find quantitative agreement in both the rSFMS and rMZR with recent IFU observational campaigns. Furthermore, we argue that the rSFMS is an indirect result of the Schmidt-Kennicutt (SK) law and local gas fraction relation, which are both independent of host galaxy properties. Finally, we expand upon a localized leaky-box model to study the evolution of idealized spaxels and find that it provides a good description of these resolved relations. The degree of agreement, however, between idealized spaxels and simulated spaxels depends on the `net' outflow rate for the spaxel, and the observed scaling relations indicate a preference for a low net outflow rate.

We estimate ([M/H], [alpha/M]) for 48 million giants and dwarfs in low-dust extinction regions from the Gaia DR3 XP spectra by using tree-based machine-learning models trained on APOGEE DR17 and metal-poor star sample from Li et al. The root mean square error of our estimation is 0.0890 dex for [M/H] and 0.0436 dex for [alpha/M], when we evaluate our models on the test data that are not used in training the models. Because the training data is dominated by giants, our estimation is most reliable for giants. The high-[alpha/M] stars and low-[alpha/M] stars selected by our ([M/H], [alpha/M]) show different kinematical properties for giants and low-temperature dwarfs. We further investigate how our machine-learning models extract information on ([M/H], [alpha/M]). Intriguingly, we find that our models seem to extract information on [alpha/M] from Na D lines (589 nm) and Mg I line (516 nm). This result is understandable given the observed correlation between Na and Mg abundances in the literature. The catalog of ([M/H], [alpha/M]) as well as their associated uncertainties are publicly available online.

The rapidly evolving fields of Machine Learning (ML) and Artificial Intelligence have witnessed the emergence of platforms like Hugging Face (HF) as central hubs for model development and sharing. This experience report synthesizes insights from two comprehensive studies conducted on HF, focusing on carbon emissions and the evolutionary and maintenance aspects of ML models. Our objective is to provide a practical guide for future researchers embarking on mining software repository studies within the HF ecosystem to enhance the quality of these studies. We delve into the intricacies of the replication package used in our studies, highlighting the pivotal tools and methodologies that facilitated our analysis. Furthermore, we propose a nuanced stratified sampling strategy tailored for the diverse HF Hub dataset, ensuring a representative and comprehensive analytical approach. The report also introduces preliminary guidelines, transitioning from repository mining to cohort studies, to establish causality in repository mining studies, particularly within the ML model of HF context. This transition is inspired by existing frameworks and is adapted to suit the unique characteristics of the HF model ecosystem. Our report serves as a guiding framework for researchers, contributing to the responsible and sustainable advancement of ML, and fostering a deeper understanding of the broader implications of ML models.

We introduce a single-view reconstruction technique of volumetric fields in which multiple light scattering effects are omnipresent, such as in clouds. We model the unknown distribution of volumetric fields using an unconditional diffusion model trained on a novel benchmark dataset comprising 1,000 synthetically simulated volumetric density fields. The neural diffusion model is trained on the latent codes of a novel, diffusion-friendly, monoplanar representation. The generative model is used to incorporate a tailored parametric diffusion posterior sampling technique into different reconstruction tasks. A physically-based differentiable volume renderer is employed to provide gradients with respect to light transport in the latent space. This stands in contrast to classic NeRF approaches and makes the reconstructions better aligned with observed data. Through various experiments, we demonstrate single-view reconstruction of volumetric clouds at a previously unattainable quality.

Simulating a recommendation system in a controlled environment, to identify specific behaviors and user preferences, requires highly flexible synthetic data generation models capable of mimicking the patterns and trends of real datasets. In this context, we propose HYDRA, a novel preferences data generation model driven by three main factors: user-item interaction level, item popularity, and user engagement level. The key innovations of the proposed process include the ability to generate user communities characterized by similar item adoptions, reflecting real-world social influences and trends. Additionally, HYDRA considers item popularity and user engagement as mixtures of different probability distributions, allowing for a more realistic simulation of diverse scenarios. This approach enhances the model's capacity to simulate a wide range of real-world cases, capturing the complexity and variability found in actual user behavior. We demonstrate the effectiveness of HYDRA through extensive experiments on well-known benchmark datasets. The results highlight its capability to replicate real-world data patterns, offering valuable insights for developing and testing recommendation systems in a controlled and realistic manner. The code used to perform the experiments is publicly available at https://github.com/SimoneMungari/HYDRA.

Using a set of LambdaCDM simulations of cosmic structure formation, we study the evolving connectivity and changing topological structure of the cosmic web using state-of-the-art tools of multiscale topological data analysis (TDA). We follow the development of the cosmic web topology in terms of the evolution of Betti number curves and feature persistence diagrams of the three (topological) classes of structural features: matter concentrations, filaments and tunnels, and voids. The Betti curves specify the prominence of features as a function of density level, and their evolution with cosmic epoch reflects the changing network connections between these structural features. The persistence diagrams quantify the longevity and stability of topological features. In this study we establish, for the first time, the link between persistence diagrams, the features they show, and the gravitationally driven cosmic structure formation process. By following the diagrams' development over cosmic time, the link between the multiscale topology of the cosmic web and the hierarchical buildup of cosmic structure is established. The sharp apexes in the diagrams are intimately related to key transitions in the structure formation process. The apex in the matter concentration diagrams coincides with the density level at which, typically, they detach from the Hubble expansion and begin to collapse. At that level many individual islands merge to form the network of the cosmic web and a large number of filaments and tunnels emerge to establish its connecting bridges. The location trends of the apex possess a self-similar character that can be related to the cosmic web's hierarchical buildup. We find that persistence diagrams provide a significantly higher and more profound level of information on the structure formation process than more global summary statistics like Euler characteristic or Betti numbers.

This paper describes the 2018 Planck CMB likelihoods, following a hybrid approach similar to the 2015 one, with different approximations at low and high multipoles, and implementing several methodological and analysis refinements. With more realistic simulations, and better correction and modelling of systematics, we can now make full use of the High Frequency Instrument polarization data. The low-multipole 100x143 GHz EE cross-spectrum constrains the reionization optical-depth parameter tau to better than 15% (in combination with with the other low- and high-ell likelihoods). We also update the 2015 baseline low-ell joint TEB likelihood based on the Low Frequency Instrument data, which provides a weaker tau constraint. At high multipoles, a better model of the temperature-to-polarization leakage and corrections for the effective calibrations of the polarization channels (polarization efficiency or PE) allow us to fully use the polarization spectra, improving the constraints on the LambdaCDM parameters by 20 to 30% compared to TT-only constraints. Tests on the modelling of the polarization demonstrate good consistency, with some residual modelling uncertainties, the accuracy of the PE modelling being the main limitation. Using our various tests, simulations, and comparison between different high-ell implementations, we estimate the consistency of the results to be better than the 0.5sigma level. Minor curiosities already present before (differences between ell<800 and ell>800 parameters or the preference for more smoothing of the C_ell peaks) are shown to be driven by the TT power spectrum and are not significantly modified by the inclusion of polarization. Overall, the legacy Planck CMB likelihoods provide a robust tool for constraining the cosmological model and represent a reference for future CMB observations. (Abridged)

Hierarchical clustering of networks consists in finding a tree of communities, such that lower levels of the hierarchy reveal finer-grained community structures. There are two main classes of algorithms tackling this problem. Divisive (top-down) algorithms recursively partition the nodes into two communities, until a stopping rule indicates that no further split is needed. In contrast, agglomerative (bottom-up) algorithms first identify the smallest community structure and then repeatedly merge the communities using a linkage method. In this article, we establish theoretical guarantees for the recovery of the hierarchical tree and community structure of a Hierarchical Stochastic Block Model by a bottom-up algorithm. We also establish that this bottom-up algorithm attains the information-theoretic threshold for exact recovery at intermediate levels of the hierarchy. Notably, these recovery conditions are less restrictive compared to those existing for top-down algorithms. This shows that bottom-up algorithms extend the feasible region for achieving exact recovery at intermediate levels. Numerical experiments on both synthetic and real data sets confirm the superiority of bottom-up algorithms over top-down algorithms. We also observe that top-down algorithms can produce dendrograms with inversions. These findings contribute to a better understanding of hierarchical clustering techniques and their applications in network analysis.

We present a comprehensive evaluation of proprietary and open-weights large language models using the first astronomy-specific benchmarking dataset. This dataset comprises 4,425 multiple-choice questions curated from the Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics, covering a broad range of astrophysical topics. Our analysis examines model performance across various astronomical subfields and assesses response calibration, crucial for potential deployment in research environments. Claude-3.5-Sonnet outperforms competitors by up to 4.6 percentage points, achieving 85.0% accuracy. For proprietary models, we observed a universal reduction in cost every 3-to-12 months to achieve similar score in this particular astronomy benchmark. Open-source models have rapidly improved, with LLaMA-3-70b (80.6%) and Qwen-2-72b (77.7%) now competing with some of the best proprietary models. We identify performance variations across topics, with non-English-focused models generally struggling more in exoplanet-related fields, stellar astrophysics, and instrumentation related questions. These challenges likely stem from less abundant training data, limited historical context, and rapid recent developments in these areas. This pattern is observed across both open-weights and proprietary models, with regional dependencies evident, highlighting the impact of training data diversity on model performance in specialized scientific domains. Top-performing models demonstrate well-calibrated confidence, with correlations above 0.9 between confidence and correctness, though they tend to be slightly underconfident. The development for fast, low-cost inference of open-weights models presents new opportunities for affordable deployment in astronomy. The rapid progress observed suggests that LLM-driven research in astronomy may become feasible in the near future.

We present a structural analysis of the young massive star cluster Westerlund 1 (Wd 1). With multi-epoch Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observations, we measure the proper motions of 10346 stars and determine their kinematic memberships by fitting a Gaussian mixture model to their proper motions. After correcting for extinction and completeness, we model the stellar density distribution and confirm the presence of an elongation with an eccentricity of 0.71. The eccentricity decreases slightly with increasing mass. We fit the radial profile with the Elson, Fall, and Freeman model, observing a decrease in the core radius with increasing mass, indicative of weak but detectable mass segregation. This finding is further supported by a measured mass segregation ratio of Lambda_rm MSR=1.11pm0.11, only above 1 by 1sigma, and slightly shorter minimum spanning tree length for higher mass bins. The cluster has a 1D velocity dispersion of 3.42 pm 0.10~km,s^{-1}, suggesting it is subvirial. The subvirial state implies either exceptionally high star formation efficiency or inefficient stellar feedback caused by local gas expulsion before stars reach the cluster. The crossing time is 0.30 Myr and the relaxation time is 0.26 Gyr. Given the age of Wd 1 of 10.7 Myr, we expect evident mass segregation for stars more massive than 10~M_odot, which accounts for the minor mass segregation found in the mass range of 1.00x201312.14~M_odot in this work. This suggests the overall mass segregation in Wd 1 is not primordial.

This study presents the modeling of the gravitational wave (GW) bias parameter by bridging a connection between simulated GW sources and galaxies in low redshift galaxy surveys 2MPZ and WISExSCOS (WISC). We study this connection by creating a mock GW catalog, populating galaxy surveys with binary black holes (BBHs) for different scenarios of the GW host-galaxy probability as a function of the galaxy stellar mass. We probe the observable consequences of this connection by exploring the spatial clustering of the GW sources in terms of the GW bias parameter. We consider a phenomenological broken power law model for the host-galaxy probability function, with a potential turnover M_{K} at high stellar mass (10^{11} M_{odot} in the fiducial model) where the star formation efficiency begins to drop. We vary the parameters of the GW host-galaxy probability function and find that generically the GW bias increases as M_{K} increases (and gets suppressed as M_{K} decreases). The change in the GW bias parameter shows a maximum change of about 30% for different scenarios explored in this work in comparison to the galaxy bias. Future measurements of the GW bias can help constrain M_{K} and the slopes of the host-galaxy probability function and thus offer insights into the underlying astrophysical processes.

We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among predictor variables in a flexible data-driven manner and for accounting for spatio-temporal variation that is not explained by observable predictor variables. We also show how estimation and prediction can be done in a computationally efficient manner. In an application to a large U.S. mortgage credit risk data set, we find that both predictive default probabilities for individual loans and predictive loan portfolio loss distributions obtained with our novel approach are more accurate compared to conventional independent linear hazard models and also linear spatio-temporal models. Using interpretability tools for machine learning models, we find that the likely reasons for this outperformance are strong interaction and non-linear effects in the predictor variables and the presence of large spatio-temporal frailty effects.

In this study, we introduce "CosmoAgent," an innovative artificial intelligence framework utilizing Large Language Models (LLMs) to simulate complex interactions between human and extraterrestrial civilizations, with a special emphasis on Stephen Hawking's cautionary advice about not sending radio signals haphazardly into the universe. The goal is to assess the feasibility of peaceful coexistence while considering potential risks that could threaten well-intentioned civilizations. Employing mathematical models and state transition matrices, our approach quantitatively evaluates the development trajectories of civilizations, offering insights into future decision-making at critical points of growth and saturation. Furthermore, the paper acknowledges the vast diversity in potential living conditions across the universe, which could foster unique cosmologies, ethical codes, and worldviews among various civilizations. Recognizing the Earth-centric bias inherent in current LLM designs, we propose the novel concept of using LLMs with diverse ethical paradigms and simulating interactions between entities with distinct moral principles. This innovative research provides a new way to understand complex inter-civilizational dynamics, expanding our perspective while pioneering novel strategies for conflict resolution, crucial for preventing interstellar conflicts. We have also released the code and datasets to enable further academic investigation into this interesting area of research. The code is available at https://github.com/agiresearch/AlienAgent.