Daily Papers

Normalizing flow models have been used successfully for generative image super-resolution (SR) by approximating complex distribution of natural images to simple tractable distribution in latent space through Invertible Neural Networks (INN). These models can generate multiple realistic SR images from one low-resolution (LR) input using randomly sampled points in the latent space, simulating the ill-posed nature of image upscaling where multiple high-resolution (HR) images correspond to the same LR. Lately, the invertible process in INN has also been used successfully by bidirectional image rescaling models like IRN and HCFlow for joint optimization of downscaling and inverse upscaling, resulting in significant improvements in upscaled image quality. While they are optimized for image downscaling too, the ill-posed nature of image downscaling, where one HR image could be downsized to multiple LR images depending on different interpolation kernels and resampling methods, is not considered. A new downscaling latent variable, in addition to the original one representing uncertainties in image upscaling, is introduced to model variations in the image downscaling process. This dual latent variable enhancement is applicable to different image rescaling models and it is shown in extensive experiments that it can improve image upscaling accuracy consistently without sacrificing image quality in downscaled LR images. It is also shown to be effective in enhancing other INN-based models for image restoration applications like image hiding.

Density estimation, compression and data generation are crucial tasks in artificial intelligence. Variational Auto-Encoders (VAEs) constitute a single framework to achieve these goals. Here, we present a novel class of generative models, called self-supervised Variational Auto-Encoder (selfVAE), that utilizes deterministic and discrete variational posteriors. This class of models allows to perform both conditional and unconditional sampling, while simplifying the objective function. First, we use a single self-supervised transformation as a latent variable, where a transformation is either downscaling or edge detection. Next, we consider a hierarchical architecture, i.e., multiple transformations, and we show its benefits compared to the VAE. The flexibility of selfVAE in data reconstruction finds a particularly interesting use case in data compression tasks, where we can trade-off memory for better data quality, and vice-versa. We present performance of our approach on three benchmark image data (Cifar10, Imagenette64, and CelebA).

Earth System Models (ESM) are our main tool for projecting the impacts of climate change. However, running these models at sufficient resolution for local-scale risk-assessments is not computationally feasible. Deep learning-based super-resolution models offer a promising solution to downscale ESM outputs to higher resolutions by learning from data. Yet, due to regional variations in climatic processes, these models typically require retraining for each geographical area-demanding high-resolution observational data, which is unevenly available across the globe. This highlights the need to assess how well these models generalize across geographic regions. To address this, we introduce RainShift, a dataset and benchmark for evaluating downscaling under geographic distribution shifts. We evaluate state-of-the-art downscaling approaches including GANs and diffusion models in generalizing across data gaps between the Global North and Global South. Our findings reveal substantial performance drops in out-of-distribution regions, depending on model and geographic area. While expanding the training domain generally improves generalization, it is insufficient to overcome shifts between geographically distinct regions. We show that addressing these shifts through, for example, data alignment can improve spatial generalization. Our work advances the global applicability of downscaling methods and represents a step toward reducing inequities in access to high-resolution climate information.

The availability of reliable, high-resolution climate and weather data is important to inform long-term decisions on climate adaptation and mitigation and to guide rapid responses to extreme events. Forecasting models are limited by computational costs and, therefore, often generate coarse-resolution predictions. Statistical downscaling, including super-resolution methods from deep learning, can provide an efficient method of upsampling low-resolution data. However, despite achieving visually compelling results in some cases, such models frequently violate conservation laws when predicting physical variables. In order to conserve physical quantities, here we introduce methods that guarantee statistical constraints are satisfied by a deep learning downscaling model, while also improving their performance according to traditional metrics. We compare different constraining approaches and demonstrate their applicability across different neural architectures as well as a variety of climate and weather data sets. Besides enabling faster and more accurate climate predictions through downscaling, we also show that our novel methodologies can improve super-resolution for satellite data and natural images data sets.

Deep networks have achieved great success in image rescaling (IR) task that seeks to learn the optimal downscaled representations, i.e., low-resolution (LR) images, to reconstruct the original high-resolution (HR) images. Compared with super-resolution methods that consider a fixed downscaling scheme, e.g., bicubic, IR often achieves significantly better reconstruction performance thanks to the learned downscaled representations. This highlights the importance of a good downscaled representation in image reconstruction tasks. Existing IR methods mainly learn the downscaled representation by jointly optimizing the downscaling and upscaling models. Unlike them, we seek to improve the downscaled representation through a different and more direct way: optimizing the downscaled image itself instead of the down-/upscaling models. Specifically, we propose a collaborative downscaling scheme that directly generates the collaborative LR examples by descending the gradient w.r.t. the reconstruction loss on them to benefit the IR process. Furthermore, since LR images are downscaled from the corresponding HR images, one can also improve the downscaled representation if we have a better representation in the HR domain. Inspired by this, we propose a Hierarchical Collaborative Downscaling (HCD) method that performs gradient descent in both HR and LR domains to improve the downscaled representations. Extensive experiments show that our HCD significantly improves the reconstruction performance both quantitatively and qualitatively. Moreover, we also highlight the flexibility of our HCD since it can generalize well across diverse IR models.

Many political science theories relate to latent variables, but such quantities cannot be observed directly and must instead be estimated from data with inherent uncertainty. In regression models, when a variable is measured with error, its slope coefficient is known to be biased toward zero. We show how measurement error interacts with unique aspects of latent variable estimation, identification restrictions in particular, and demonstrate how common error adjustment strategies can worsen bias. We introduce a method for adjusting coefficients on latent predictors, which reduces bias and typically increases the magnitude of estimated coefficients, often dramatically. We illustrate these dynamics using several different estimation strategies for the latent predictors. Corrected estimates using our proposed method show stronger relationships -- sometimes up to 50% larger -- than those from naive regression. Our findings highlight the importance of considering measurement error in latent predictors and the inadequacy of many commonly used approaches for dealing with this issue.

Image downscaling is a fundamental operation in image processing, crucial for adapting high-resolution content to various display and storage constraints. While classic methods often introduce blurring or aliasing, recent learning-based approaches offer improved adaptivity. However, achieving maximal fidelity against ground-truth low-resolution (LR) images, particularly by accounting for channel-specific characteristics, remains an open challenge. This paper introduces ADK-Net (Adaptive Downscaling Kernel Network), a novel deep convolutional neural network framework for high-fidelity supervised image downscaling. ADK-Net explicitly addresses channel interdependencies by learning to predict spatially-varying, adaptive resampling kernels independently for each pixel and uniquely for each color channel (RGB). The architecture employs a hierarchical design featuring a ResNet-based feature extractor and parallel channel-specific kernel generators, themselves composed of ResNet-based trunk and branch sub-modules, enabling fine-grained kernel prediction. Trained end-to-end using an L1 reconstruction loss against ground-truth LR data, ADK-Net effectively learns the target downscaling transformation. Extensive quantitative and qualitative experiments on standard benchmarks, including the RealSR dataset, demonstrate that ADK-Net establishes a new state-of-the-art in supervised image downscaling, yielding significant improvements in PSNR and SSIM metrics compared to existing learning-based and traditional methods.

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events due to global climate change urges accurate weather prediction. Recently, great advances have been made by the end-to-end methods, thanks to deep learning techniques, but they face limitations of representation inconsistency in multivariable integration and struggle to effectively capture the dependency between variables, which is required in complex weather systems. Treating different variables as distinct modalities and applying a two-stage training approach from multimodal models can partially alleviate this issue, but due to the inconformity in training tasks between the two stages, the results are often suboptimal. To address these challenges, we propose an implicit two-stage training method, configuring separate encoders and decoders for each variable. In detailed, in the first stage, the Translator is frozen while the Encoders and Decoders learn a shared latent space, in the second stage, the Encoders and Decoders are frozen, and the Translator captures inter-variable interactions for prediction. Besides, by introducing a self-attention mechanism for multivariable fusion in the latent space, the performance achieves further improvements. Empirically, extensive experiments show the state-of-the-art performance of our method. Specifically, it reduces the MSE for near-surface air temperature and relative humidity predictions by 28.82\% and 23.39\%, respectively. The source code is available at https://github.com/ShremG/Met2Net.

Powerful generative models, particularly in Natural Language Modelling, are commonly trained by maximizing a variational lower bound on the data log likelihood. These models often suffer from poor use of their latent variable, with ad-hoc annealing factors used to encourage retention of information in the latent variable. We discuss an alternative and general approach to latent variable modelling, based on an objective that combines the data log likelihood as well as the likelihood of a perfect reconstruction through an autoencoder. Tying these together ensures by design that the latent variable captures information about the observations, whilst retaining the ability to generate well. Interestingly, though this approach is a priori unrelated to VAEs, the lower bound attained is identical to the standard VAE bound but with the addition of a simple pre-factor; thus, providing a formal interpretation of the commonly used, ad-hoc pre-factors in training VAEs.

Flow matching and diffusion models have shown impressive results in text-to-image generation, producing photorealistic images through an iterative denoising process. A common strategy to speed up synthesis is to perform early denoising at lower resolutions. However, traditional methods that downscale and upscale in pixel space often introduce artifacts and distortions. These issues arise when the upscaled images are re-encoded into the latent space, leading to degraded final image quality. To address this, we propose {\bf Latent Space Scaling Generation (LSSGen)}, a framework that performs resolution scaling directly in the latent space using a lightweight latent upsampler. Without altering the Transformer or U-Net architecture, LSSGen improves both efficiency and visual quality while supporting flexible multi-resolution generation. Our comprehensive evaluation covering text-image alignment and perceptual quality shows that LSSGen significantly outperforms conventional scaling approaches. When generating 1024^2 images at similar speeds, it achieves up to 246\% TOPIQ score improvement.

In recent years, language models have drastically grown in size, and the abilities of these models have been shown to improve with scale. The majority of recent scaling laws studies focused on high-compute high-parameter count settings, leaving the question of when these abilities begin to emerge largely unanswered. In this paper, we investigate whether the effects of pre-training can be observed when the problem size is reduced, modeling a smaller, reduced-vocabulary language. We show the benefits of pre-training with masked language modeling (MLM) objective in models as small as 1.25M parameters, and establish a strong correlation between pre-training perplexity and downstream performance (GLUE benchmark). We examine downscaling effects, extending scaling laws to models as small as ~1M parameters. At this scale, we observe a break of the power law for compute-optimal models and show that the MLM loss does not scale smoothly with compute-cost (FLOPs) below 2.2 times 10^{15} FLOPs. We also find that adding layers does not always benefit downstream performance.

The Copernicus Regional Reanalysis for Europe, CERRA, is a high-resolution regional reanalysis dataset for the European domain. In recent years it has shown significant utility across various climate-related tasks, ranging from forecasting and climate change research to renewable energy prediction, resource management, air quality risk assessment, and the forecasting of rare events, among others. Unfortunately, the availability of CERRA is lagging two years behind the current date, due to constraints in acquiring the requisite external data and the intensive computational demands inherent in its generation. As a solution, this paper introduces a novel method using diffusion models to approximate CERRA downscaling in a data-driven manner, without additional informations. By leveraging the lower resolution ERA5 dataset, which provides boundary conditions for CERRA, we approach this as a super-resolution task. Focusing on wind speed around Italy, our model, trained on existing CERRA data, shows promising results, closely mirroring original CERRA data. Validation with in-situ observations further confirms the model's accuracy in approximating ground measurements.

In recent years, diffusion models have emerged as powerful tools for generating ensemble members in meteorology. In this work, we demonstrate that a Denoising Diffusion Implicit Model (DDIM) can effectively control ensemble variance by varying the number of diffusion steps. Introducing a theoretical framework, we relate diffusion steps to the variance expressed by the reverse diffusion process. Focusing on reanalysis downscaling, we propose an ensemble diffusion model for the full ERA5-to-CERRA domain, generating variance-calibrated ensemble members for wind speed at full spatial and temporal resolution. Our method aligns global mean variance with a reference ensemble dataset and ensures spatial variance is distributed in accordance with observed meteorological variability. Additionally, we address the lack of ensemble information in the CARRA dataset, showcasing the utility of our approach for efficient, high-resolution ensemble generation.

Scaling visual generation models is essential for real-world content creation, yet requires substantial training and computational expenses. Alternatively, test-time scaling has garnered growing attention due to resource efficiency and promising performance. In this work, we present TTS-VAR, the first general test-time scaling framework for visual auto-regressive (VAR) models, modeling the generation process as a path searching problem. To dynamically balance computational efficiency with exploration capacity, we first introduce an adaptive descending batch size schedule throughout the causal generation process. Besides, inspired by VAR's hierarchical coarse-to-fine multi-scale generation, our framework integrates two key components: (i) At coarse scales, we observe that generated tokens are hard for evaluation, possibly leading to erroneous acceptance of inferior samples or rejection of superior samples. Noticing that the coarse scales contain sufficient structural information, we propose clustering-based diversity search. It preserves structural variety through semantic feature clustering, enabling later selection on samples with higher potential. (ii) In fine scales, resampling-based potential selection prioritizes promising candidates using potential scores, which are defined as reward functions incorporating multi-scale generation history. Experiments on the powerful VAR model Infinity show a notable 8.7% GenEval score improvement (from 0.69 to 0.75). Key insights reveal that early-stage structural features effectively influence final quality, and resampling efficacy varies across generation scales. Code is available at https://github.com/ali-vilab/TTS-VAR.

Diffusion models have been widely adopted in image generation, producing higher-quality and more diverse samples than generative adversarial networks (GANs). We introduce a latent diffusion model (LDM) for precipitation nowcasting - short-term forecasting based on the latest observational data. The LDM is more stable and requires less computation to train than GANs, albeit with more computationally expensive generation. We benchmark it against the GAN-based Deep Generative Models of Rainfall (DGMR) and a statistical model, PySTEPS. The LDM produces more accurate precipitation predictions, while the comparisons are more mixed when predicting whether the precipitation exceeds predefined thresholds. The clearest advantage of the LDM is that it generates more diverse predictions than DGMR or PySTEPS. Rank distribution tests indicate that the distribution of samples from the LDM accurately reflects the uncertainty of the predictions. Thus, LDMs are promising for any applications where uncertainty quantification is important, such as weather and climate.

Sparse observations and coarse-resolution climate models limit effective regional decision-making, underscoring the need for robust downscaling. However, existing AI methods struggle with generalization across variables and geographies and are constrained by the quadratic complexity of Vision Transformer (ViT) self-attention. We introduce ORBIT-2, a scalable foundation model for global, hyper-resolution climate downscaling. ORBIT-2 incorporates two key innovations: (1) Residual Slim ViT (Reslim), a lightweight architecture with residual learning and Bayesian regularization for efficient, robust prediction; and (2) TILES, a tile-wise sequence scaling algorithm that reduces self-attention complexity from quadratic to linear, enabling long-sequence processing and massive parallelism. ORBIT-2 scales to 10 billion parameters across 65,536 GPUs, achieving up to 4.1 exaFLOPS sustained throughput and 74--98% strong scaling efficiency. It supports downscaling to 0.9 km global resolution and processes sequences up to 4.2 billion tokens. On 7 km resolution benchmarks, ORBIT-2 achieves high accuracy with R^2 scores in the range of 0.98--0.99 against observational data.

Categorical distributions are ubiquitous in machine learning, e.g., in classification, language models, and recommendation systems. However, when the number of possible outcomes is very large, using categorical distributions becomes computationally expensive, as the complexity scales linearly with the number of outcomes. To address this problem, we propose augment and reduce (A&R), a method to alleviate the computational complexity. A&R uses two ideas: latent variable augmentation and stochastic variational inference. It maximizes a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the data. Unlike existing methods which are specific to softmax, A&R is more general and is amenable to other categorical models, such as multinomial probit. On several large-scale classification problems, we show that A&R provides a tighter bound on the marginal likelihood and has better predictive performance than existing approaches.

Overparametrization often helps improve the generalization performance. This paper proposes a dual view of overparametrization suggesting that downsampling may also help generalize. Motivated by this dual view, we characterize two out-of-sample prediction risks of the sketched ridgeless least square estimator in the proportional regime masymp n asymp p, where m is the sketching size, n the sample size, and p the feature dimensionality. Our results reveal the statistical role of downsampling. Specifically, downsampling does not always hurt the generalization performance, and may actually help improve it in some cases. We identify the optimal sketching sizes that minimize the out-of-sample prediction risks, and find that the optimally sketched estimator has stabler risk curves that eliminates the peaks of those for the full-sample estimator. We then propose a practical procedure to empirically identify the optimal sketching size. Finally, we extend our results to cover central limit theorems and misspecified models. Numerical studies strongly support our theory.

How can we perform efficient inference and learning in directed probabilistic models, in the presence of continuous latent variables with intractable posterior distributions, and large datasets? We introduce a stochastic variational inference and learning algorithm that scales to large datasets and, under some mild differentiability conditions, even works in the intractable case. Our contributions are two-fold. First, we show that a reparameterization of the variational lower bound yields a lower bound estimator that can be straightforwardly optimized using standard stochastic gradient methods. Second, we show that for i.i.d. datasets with continuous latent variables per datapoint, posterior inference can be made especially efficient by fitting an approximate inference model (also called a recognition model) to the intractable posterior using the proposed lower bound estimator. Theoretical advantages are reflected in experimental results.

The past several years have witnessed Variational Auto-Encoder's superiority in various text generation tasks. However, due to the sequential nature of the text, auto-regressive decoders tend to ignore latent variables and then reduce to simple language models, known as the KL vanishing problem, which would further deteriorate when VAE is combined with Transformer-based structures. To ameliorate this problem, we propose DELLA, a novel variational Transformer framework. DELLA learns a series of layer-wise latent variables with each inferred from those of lower layers and tightly coupled with the hidden states by low-rank tensor product. In this way, DELLA forces these posterior latent variables to be fused deeply with the whole computation path and hence incorporate more information. We theoretically demonstrate that our method can be regarded as entangling latent variables to avoid posterior information decrease through layers, enabling DELLA to get higher non-zero KL values even without any annealing or thresholding tricks. Experiments on four unconditional and three conditional generation tasks show that DELLA could better alleviate KL vanishing and improve both quality and diversity compared to several strong baselines.

Maximizing the log-likelihood is a crucial aspect of learning latent variable models, and variational inference (VI) stands as the commonly adopted method. However, VI can encounter challenges in achieving a high log-likelihood when dealing with complicated posterior distributions. In response to this limitation, we introduce a novel variational importance sampling (VIS) approach that directly estimates and maximizes the log-likelihood. VIS leverages the optimal proposal distribution, achieved by minimizing the forward chi^2 divergence, to enhance log-likelihood estimation. We apply VIS to various popular latent variable models, including mixture models, variational auto-encoders, and partially observable generalized linear models. Results demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, both in terms of log-likelihood and model parameter estimation.

Bayesian Neural Networks with Latent Variables (BNN+LVs) capture predictive uncertainty by explicitly modeling model uncertainty (via priors on network weights) and environmental stochasticity (via a latent input noise variable). In this work, we first show that BNN+LV suffers from a serious form of non-identifiability: explanatory power can be transferred between the model parameters and latent variables while fitting the data equally well. We demonstrate that as a result, in the limit of infinite data, the posterior mode over the network weights and latent variables is asymptotically biased away from the ground-truth. Due to this asymptotic bias, traditional inference methods may in practice yield parameters that generalize poorly and misestimate uncertainty. Next, we develop a novel inference procedure that explicitly mitigates the effects of likelihood non-identifiability during training and yields high-quality predictions as well as uncertainty estimates. We demonstrate that our inference method improves upon benchmark methods across a range of synthetic and real data-sets.

We propose the Distance-informed Neural Process (DNP), a novel variant of Neural Processes that improves uncertainty estimation by combining global and distance-aware local latent structures. Standard Neural Processes (NPs) often rely on a global latent variable and struggle with uncertainty calibration and capturing local data dependencies. DNP addresses these limitations by introducing a global latent variable to model task-level variations and a local latent variable to capture input similarity within a distance-preserving latent space. This is achieved through bi-Lipschitz regularization, which bounds distortions in input relationships and encourages the preservation of relative distances in the latent space. This modeling approach allows DNP to produce better-calibrated uncertainty estimates and more effectively distinguish in- from out-of-distribution data. Empirical results demonstrate that DNP achieves strong predictive performance and improved uncertainty calibration across regression and classification tasks.

Accurate probabilistic weather forecasting demands both high accuracy and efficient uncertainty quantification, challenges that overburden both ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) and recent machine-learning methods. We introduce LaDCast, the first global latent-diffusion framework for medium-range ensemble forecasting, which generates hourly ensemble forecasts entirely in a learned latent space. An autoencoder compresses high-dimensional ERA5 reanalysis fields into a compact representation, and a transformer-based diffusion model produces sequential latent updates with arbitrary hour initialization. The model incorporates Geometric Rotary Position Embedding (GeoRoPE) to account for the Earth's spherical geometry, a dual-stream attention mechanism for efficient conditioning, and sinusoidal temporal embeddings to capture seasonal patterns. LaDCast achieves deterministic and probabilistic skill close to that of the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecast IFS-ENS, without any explicit perturbations. Notably, LaDCast demonstrates superior performance in tracking rare extreme events such as cyclones, capturing their trajectories more accurately than established models. By operating in latent space, LaDCast reduces storage and compute by orders of magnitude, demonstrating a practical path toward forecasting at kilometer-scale resolution in real time. We open-source our code and models and provide the training and evaluation pipelines at: https://github.com/tonyzyl/ladcast.

Visual Auto-Regressive (VAR) models significantly reduce inference steps through the "next-scale" prediction paradigm. However, progressive multi-scale generation incurs substantial memory overhead due to cumulative KV caching, limiting practical deployment. We observe a scale-depth asymmetric dependency in VAR: early scales exhibit extreme sensitivity to network depth, while later scales remain robust to depth reduction. Inspired by this, we propose VARiant: by equidistant sampling, we select multiple subnets ranging from 16 to 2 layers from the original 30-layer VAR-d30 network. Early scales are processed by the full network, while later scales utilize subnet. Subnet and the full network share weights, enabling flexible depth adjustment within a single model. However, weight sharing between subnet and the entire network can lead to optimization conflicts. To address this, we propose a progressive training strategy that breaks through the Pareto frontier of generation quality for both subnets and the full network under fixed-ratio training, achieving joint optimality. Experiments on ImageNet demonstrate that, compared to the pretrained VAR-d30 (FID 1.95), VARiant-d16 and VARiant-d8 achieve nearly equivalent quality (FID 2.05/2.12) while reducing memory consumption by 40-65%. VARiant-d2 achieves 3.5 times speedup and 80% memory reduction at moderate quality cost (FID 2.97). In terms of deployment, VARiant's single-model architecture supports zero-cost runtime depth switching and provides flexible deployment options from high quality to extreme efficiency, catering to diverse application scenarios.

Triggered by the realization that AI emulators can rival the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction models running on HPC systems, there is now an increasing number of large AI models that address use cases such as forecasting, downscaling, or nowcasting. While the parallel developments in the AI literature focus on foundation models -- models that can be effectively tuned to address multiple, different use cases -- the developments on the weather and climate side largely focus on single-use cases with particular emphasis on mid-range forecasting. We close this gap by introducing Prithvi WxC, a 2.3 billion parameter foundation model developed using 160 variables from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Prithvi WxC employs an encoder-decoder-based architecture, incorporating concepts from various recent transformer models to effectively capture both regional and global dependencies in the input data. The model has been designed to accommodate large token counts to model weather phenomena in different topologies at fine resolutions. Furthermore, it is trained with a mixed objective that combines the paradigms of masked reconstruction with forecasting. We test the model on a set of challenging downstream tasks namely: Autoregressive rollout forecasting, Downscaling, Gravity wave flux parameterization, and Extreme events estimation. The pretrained model with 2.3 billion parameters, along with the associated fine-tuning workflows, has been publicly released as an open-source contribution via Hugging Face.

This paper proposes a hierarchical generative model with a multi-grained latent variable to synthesize expressive speech. In recent years, fine-grained latent variables are introduced into the text-to-speech synthesis that enable the fine control of the prosody and speaking styles of synthesized speech. However, the naturalness of speech degrades when these latent variables are obtained by sampling from the standard Gaussian prior. To solve this problem, we propose a novel framework for modeling the fine-grained latent variables, considering the dependence on an input text, a hierarchical linguistic structure, and a temporal structure of latent variables. This framework consists of a multi-grained variational autoencoder, a conditional prior, and a multi-level auto-regressive latent converter to obtain the different time-resolution latent variables and sample the finer-level latent variables from the coarser-level ones by taking into account the input text. Experimental results indicate an appropriate method of sampling fine-grained latent variables without the reference signal at the synthesis stage. Our proposed framework also provides the controllability of speaking style in an entire utterance.

In this paper, we propose Image Downscaling Assessment by Rate-Distortion (IDA-RD), a novel measure to quantitatively evaluate image downscaling algorithms. In contrast to image-based methods that measure the quality of downscaled images, ours is process-based that draws ideas from rate-distortion theory to measure the distortion incurred during downscaling. Our main idea is that downscaling and super-resolution (SR) can be viewed as the encoding and decoding processes in the rate-distortion model, respectively, and that a downscaling algorithm that preserves more details in the resulting low-resolution (LR) images should lead to less distorted high-resolution (HR) images in SR. In other words, the distortion should increase as the downscaling algorithm deteriorates. However, it is non-trivial to measure this distortion as it requires the SR algorithm to be blind and stochastic. Our key insight is that such requirements can be met by recent SR algorithms based on deep generative models that can find all matching HR images for a given LR image on their learned image manifolds. Extensive experimental results show the effectiveness of our IDA-RD measure.

We present a novel approach for generating minority samples that live on low-density regions of a data manifold. Our framework is built upon diffusion models, leveraging the principle of guided sampling that incorporates an arbitrary energy-based guidance during inference time. The key defining feature of our sampler lies in its self-contained nature, \ie, implementable solely with a pretrained model. This distinguishes our sampler from existing techniques that require expensive additional components (like external classifiers) for minority generation. Specifically, we first estimate the likelihood of features within an intermediate latent sample by evaluating a reconstruction loss w.r.t. its posterior mean. The generation then proceeds with the minimization of the estimated likelihood, thereby encouraging the emergence of minority features in the latent samples of subsequent timesteps. To further improve the performance of our sampler, we provide several time-scheduling techniques that properly manage the influence of guidance over inference steps. Experiments on benchmark real datasets demonstrate that our approach can greatly improve the capability of creating realistic low-likelihood minority instances over the existing techniques without the reliance on costly additional elements. Code is available at https://github.com/soobin-um/sg-minority.

We propose an extension of the decoder Transformer that conditions its generative process on random latent variables which are learned without supervision thanks to a variational procedure. Experimental evaluations show that allowing such a conditioning translates into substantial improvements on downstream tasks.

Categorical variables are a natural choice for representing discrete structure in the world. However, stochastic neural networks rarely use categorical latent variables due to the inability to backpropagate through samples. In this work, we present an efficient gradient estimator that replaces the non-differentiable sample from a categorical distribution with a differentiable sample from a novel Gumbel-Softmax distribution. This distribution has the essential property that it can be smoothly annealed into a categorical distribution. We show that our Gumbel-Softmax estimator outperforms state-of-the-art gradient estimators on structured output prediction and unsupervised generative modeling tasks with categorical latent variables, and enables large speedups on semi-supervised classification.

Model diffing is the study of how fine-tuning changes a model's representations and internal algorithms. Many behaviors of interest are introduced during fine-tuning, and model diffing offers a promising lens to interpret such behaviors. Crosscoders are a recent model diffing method that learns a shared dictionary of interpretable concepts represented as latent directions in both the base and fine-tuned models, allowing us to track how concepts shift or emerge during fine-tuning. Notably, prior work has observed concepts with no direction in the base model, and it was hypothesized that these model-specific latents were concepts introduced during fine-tuning. However, we identify two issues which stem from the crosscoders L1 training loss that can misattribute concepts as unique to the fine-tuned model, when they really exist in both models. We develop Latent Scaling to flag these issues by more accurately measuring each latent's presence across models. In experiments comparing Gemma 2 2B base and chat models, we observe that the standard crosscoder suffers heavily from these issues. Building on these insights, we train a crosscoder with BatchTopK loss and show that it substantially mitigates these issues, finding more genuinely chat-specific and highly interpretable concepts. We recommend practitioners adopt similar techniques. Using the BatchTopK crosscoder, we successfully identify a set of chat-specific latents that are both interpretable and causally effective, representing concepts such as false information and personal question, along with multiple refusal-related latents that show nuanced preferences for different refusal triggers. Overall, our work advances best practices for the crosscoder-based methodology for model diffing and demonstrates that it can provide concrete insights into how chat-tuning modifies model behavior.

Data availability across domains often follows a long-tail distribution: a few domains have abundant data, while most face dat . a scarcity. This imbalance poses challenges in training language models uniformly across all domains. In our study, we focus on multilingual settings, where data sizes vary significantly between high- and low-resource languages. Common strategies to address this include upsampling low-resource languages (Temperature Sampling) or upweighting their loss (Scalarization). Although often considered equivalent, this assumption has not been proven, which motivates our study. Through both theoretical and empirical analysis, we identify the conditions under which these approaches are equivalent and when they diverge. Specifically, we demonstrate that these two methods are equivalent under full gradient descent, but this equivalence breaks down with stochastic gradient descent. Empirically, we observe that Temperature Sampling converges more quickly but is prone to overfitting. We argue that this faster convergence is likely due to the lower variance in gradient estimations, as shown theoretically. Based on these insights, we propose Cooldown, a strategy that reduces sampling temperature during training, accelerating convergence without overfitting to low-resource languages. Our method is competitive with existing data re-weighting and offers computational efficiency.

Calibrated uncertainty estimates in machine learning are crucial to many fields such as autonomous vehicles, medicine, and weather and climate forecasting. While there is extensive literature on uncertainty calibration for classification, the classification findings do not always translate to regression. As a result, modern models for predicting uncertainty in regression settings typically produce uncalibrated and overconfident estimates. To address these gaps, we present a calibration method for regression settings that does not assume a particular uncertainty distribution over the error: Calibrating Regression Uncertainty Distributions Empirically (CRUDE). CRUDE makes the weaker assumption that error distributions have a constant arbitrary shape across the output space, shifted by predicted mean and scaled by predicted standard deviation. We detail a theoretical connection between CRUDE and conformal inference. Across an extensive set of regression tasks, CRUDE demonstrates consistently sharper, better calibrated, and more accurate uncertainty estimates than state-of-the-art techniques.

We propose a new method for solving imaging inverse problems using text-to-image latent diffusion models as general priors. Existing methods using latent diffusion models for inverse problems typically rely on simple null text prompts, which can lead to suboptimal performance. To address this limitation, we introduce a method for prompt tuning, which jointly optimizes the text embedding on-the-fly while running the reverse diffusion process. This allows us to generate images that are more faithful to the diffusion prior. In addition, we propose a method to keep the evolution of latent variables within the range space of the encoder, by projection. This helps to reduce image artifacts, a major problem when using latent diffusion models instead of pixel-based diffusion models. Our combined method, called P2L, outperforms both image- and latent-diffusion model-based inverse problem solvers on a variety of tasks, such as super-resolution, deblurring, and inpainting.

Modeling weather and climate is an essential endeavor to understand the near- and long-term impacts of climate change, as well as inform technology and policymaking for adaptation and mitigation efforts. In recent years, there has been a surging interest in applying data-driven methods based on machine learning for solving core problems such as weather forecasting and climate downscaling. Despite promising results, much of this progress has been impaired due to the lack of large-scale, open-source efforts for reproducibility, resulting in the use of inconsistent or underspecified datasets, training setups, and evaluations by both domain scientists and artificial intelligence researchers. We introduce ClimateLearn, an open-source PyTorch library that vastly simplifies the training and evaluation of machine learning models for data-driven climate science. ClimateLearn consists of holistic pipelines for dataset processing (e.g., ERA5, CMIP6, PRISM), implementation of state-of-the-art deep learning models (e.g., Transformers, ResNets), and quantitative and qualitative evaluation for standard weather and climate modeling tasks. We supplement these functionalities with extensive documentation, contribution guides, and quickstart tutorials to expand access and promote community growth. We have also performed comprehensive forecasting and downscaling experiments to showcase the capabilities and key features of our library. To our knowledge, ClimateLearn is the first large-scale, open-source effort for bridging research in weather and climate modeling with modern machine learning systems. Our library is available publicly at https://github.com/aditya-grover/climate-learn.

Recently, diffusion models have made remarkable progress in text-to-image (T2I) generation, synthesizing images with high fidelity and diverse contents. Despite this advancement, latent space smoothness within diffusion models remains largely unexplored. Smooth latent spaces ensure that a perturbation on an input latent corresponds to a steady change in the output image. This property proves beneficial in downstream tasks, including image interpolation, inversion, and editing. In this work, we expose the non-smoothness of diffusion latent spaces by observing noticeable visual fluctuations resulting from minor latent variations. To tackle this issue, we propose Smooth Diffusion, a new category of diffusion models that can be simultaneously high-performing and smooth. Specifically, we introduce Step-wise Variation Regularization to enforce the proportion between the variations of an arbitrary input latent and that of the output image is a constant at any diffusion training step. In addition, we devise an interpolation standard deviation (ISTD) metric to effectively assess the latent space smoothness of a diffusion model. Extensive quantitative and qualitative experiments demonstrate that Smooth Diffusion stands out as a more desirable solution not only in T2I generation but also across various downstream tasks. Smooth Diffusion is implemented as a plug-and-play Smooth-LoRA to work with various community models. Code is available at https://github.com/SHI-Labs/Smooth-Diffusion.

Generative models trained on extensive high-quality datasets effectively capture the structural and statistical properties of clean images, rendering them powerful priors for transforming degraded features into clean ones in image restoration. VAR, a novel image generative paradigm, surpasses diffusion models in generation quality by applying a next-scale prediction approach. It progressively captures both global structures and fine-grained details through the autoregressive process, consistent with the multi-scale restoration principle widely acknowledged in the restoration community. Furthermore, we observe that during the image reconstruction process utilizing VAR, scale predictions automatically modulate the input, facilitating the alignment of representations at subsequent scales with the distribution of clean images. To harness VAR's adaptive distribution alignment capability in image restoration tasks, we formulate the multi-scale latent representations within VAR as the restoration prior, thus advancing our delicately designed VarFormer framework. The strategic application of these priors enables our VarFormer to achieve remarkable generalization on unseen tasks while also reducing training computational costs. Extensive experiments underscores that our VarFormer outperforms existing multi-task image restoration methods across various restoration tasks.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

Ensemble forecasting is crucial for improving weather predictions, especially for forecasts of extreme events. Constructing an ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on conventional NWP models is highly computationally expensive. ML models have emerged as valuable tools for deterministic weather forecasts, providing forecasts with significantly reduced computational requirements and even surpassing the forecast performance of traditional NWP models. However, challenges arise when applying ML models to ensemble forecasting. Recent ML models, such as GenCast and SEEDS model, rely on the ERA5 EDA or operational NWP ensemble members for forecast generation. Their spatial resolution is also considered too coarse for many applications. To overcome these limitations, we introduce FuXi-ENS, an advanced ML model designed to deliver 6-hourly global ensemble weather forecasts up to 15 days. This model runs at a significantly increased spatial resolution of 0.25\textdegree, incorporating 5 atmospheric variables at 13 pressure levels, along with 13 surface variables. By leveraging the inherent probabilistic nature of Variational AutoEncoder (VAE), FuXi-ENS optimizes a loss function that combines the CRPS and the KL divergence between the predicted and target distribution, facilitating the incorporation of flow-dependent perturbations in both initial conditions and forecast. This innovative approach makes FuXi-ENS an advancement over the traditional ones that use L1 loss combined with the KL loss in standard VAE models for ensemble weather forecasting. Results demonstrate that FuXi-ENS outperforms ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF, a world leading NWP model, in the CRPS of 98.1% of 360 variable and forecast lead time combinations. This achievement underscores the potential of the FuXi-ENS model to enhance ensemble weather forecasts, offering a promising direction for further development in this field.

This study introduces PV-RNN, a novel variational RNN inspired by the predictive-coding ideas. The model learns to extract the probabilistic structures hidden in fluctuating temporal patterns by dynamically changing the stochasticity of its latent states. Its architecture attempts to address two major concerns of variational Bayes RNNs: how can latent variables learn meaningful representations and how can the inference model transfer future observations to the latent variables. PV-RNN does both by introducing adaptive vectors mirroring the training data, whose values can then be adapted differently during evaluation. Moreover, prediction errors during backpropagation, rather than external inputs during the forward computation, are used to convey information to the network about the external data. For testing, we introduce error regression for predicting unseen sequences as inspired by predictive coding that leverages those mechanisms. The model introduces a weighting parameter, the meta-prior, to balance the optimization pressure placed on two terms of a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the sequential data. We test the model on two datasets with probabilistic structures and show that with high values of the meta-prior the network develops deterministic chaos through which the data's randomness is imitated. For low values, the model behaves as a random process. The network performs best on intermediate values, and is able to capture the latent probabilistic structure with good generalization. Analyzing the meta-prior's impact on the network allows to precisely study the theoretical value and practical benefits of incorporating stochastic dynamics in our model. We demonstrate better prediction performance on a robot imitation task with our model using error regression compared to a standard variational Bayes model lacking such a procedure.

There exists recent work in computer vision, named VAR, that proposes a new autoregressive paradigm for image generation. Diverging from the vanilla next-token prediction, VAR structurally reformulates the image generation into a coarse to fine next-scale prediction. In this paper, we show that this scale-wise autoregressive framework can be effectively decoupled into intra-scale modeling, which captures local spatial dependencies within each scale, and inter-scale modeling, which models cross-scale relationships progressively from coarse-to-fine scales. This decoupling structure allows to rebuild VAR in a more computationally efficient manner. Specifically, for intra-scale modeling -- crucial for generating high-fidelity images -- we retain the original bidirectional self-attention design to ensure comprehensive modeling; for inter-scale modeling, which semantically connects different scales but is computationally intensive, we apply linear-complexity mechanisms like Mamba to substantially reduce computational overhead. We term this new framework M-VAR. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms existing models in both image quality and generation speed. For example, our 1.5B model, with fewer parameters and faster inference speed, outperforms the largest VAR-d30-2B. Moreover, our largest model M-VAR-d32 impressively registers 1.78 FID on ImageNet 256times256 and outperforms the prior-art autoregressive models LlamaGen/VAR by 0.4/0.19 and popular diffusion models LDM/DiT by 1.82/0.49, respectively. Code is avaiable at https://github.com/OliverRensu/MVAR.

Our approach to training 3D vision-language understanding models is to train a feedforward model that makes predictions in 3D, but never requires 3D labels and is supervised only in 2D, using 2D losses and differentiable rendering. The approach is new for vision-language understanding. By treating the reconstruction as a ``latent variable'', we can render the outputs without placing unnecessary constraints on the network architecture (e.g. can be used with decoder-only models). For training, only need images and camera pose, and 2D labels. We show that we can even remove the need for 2D labels by using pseudo-labels from pretrained 2D models. We demonstrate this to pretrain a network, and we finetune it for 3D vision-language understanding tasks. We show this approach outperforms baselines/sota for 3D vision-language grounding, and also outperforms other 3D pretraining techniques. Project page: https://liftgs.github.io.

The outcome of Large Language Model (LLM) pre-training strongly depends on weight initialization and variance control strategies. Although the importance of initial variance control has been well documented in neural networks in general, the literature on initialization and management of its growth during LLM pre-training, specifically, is somewhat sparse. In this paper, we introduce the Layer Index Rescaling (LIR) weight initialization scheme, and the Target Variance Rescaling (TVR) variance control strategy. Experiments on a 1B parameter LLaMA model demonstrate that better variance management using these techniques yields substantial improvements in downstream task performance (up to 4.6% on common pre-training benchmarks) and reduces extreme activation values, thus mitigating challenges associated with quantization and low-precision training. Our code is available at: https://github.com/bluorion-com/weight_rescaling.

Recent advances in text-to-image generative models have enabled numerous practical applications, including subject-driven generation, which fine-tunes pretrained models to capture subject semantics from only a few examples. While diffusion-based models produce high-quality images, their extensive denoising steps result in significant computational overhead, limiting real-world applicability. Visual autoregressive~(VAR) models, which predict next-scale tokens rather than spatially adjacent ones, offer significantly faster inference suitable for practical deployment. In this paper, we propose the first VAR-based approach for subject-driven generation. However, na\"{\i}ve fine-tuning VAR leads to computational overhead, language drift, and reduced diversity. To address these challenges, we introduce selective layer tuning to reduce complexity and prior distillation to mitigate language drift. Additionally, we found that the early stages have a greater influence on the generation of subject than the latter stages, which merely synthesize local details. Based on this finding, we propose scale-wise weighted tuning, which prioritizes coarser resolutions for promoting the model to focus on the subject-relevant information instead of local details. Extensive experiments validate that our method significantly outperforms diffusion-based baselines across various metrics and demonstrates its practical usage.

Modeling latent variables with priors and hyperpriors is an essential problem in variational image compression. Formally, trade-off between rate and distortion is handled well if priors and hyperpriors precisely describe latent variables. Current practices only adopt univariate priors and process each variable individually. However, we find inter-correlations and intra-correlations exist when observing latent variables in a vectorized perspective. These findings reveal visual redundancies to improve rate-distortion performance and parallel processing ability to speed up compression. This encourages us to propose a novel vectorized prior. Specifically, a multivariate Gaussian mixture is proposed with means and covariances to be estimated. Then, a novel probabilistic vector quantization is utilized to effectively approximate means, and remaining covariances are further induced to a unified mixture and solved by cascaded estimation without context models involved. Furthermore, codebooks involved in quantization are extended to multi-codebooks for complexity reduction, which formulates an efficient compression procedure. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets against state-of-the-art indicate our model has better rate-distortion performance and an impressive 3.18times compression speed up, giving us the ability to perform real-time, high-quality variational image compression in practice. Our source code is publicly available at https://github.com/xiaosu-zhu/McQuic.

Currently, high-dimensional data is ubiquitous in data science, which necessitates the development of techniques to decompose and interpret such multidimensional (aka tensor) datasets. Finding a low dimensional representation of the data, that is, its inherent structure, is one of the approaches that can serve to understand the dynamics of low dimensional latent features hidden in the data. Nonnegative RESCAL is one such technique, particularly well suited to analyze self-relational data, such as dynamic networks found in international trade flows. Nonnegative RESCAL computes a low dimensional tensor representation by finding the latent space containing multiple modalities. Estimating the dimensionality of this latent space is crucial for extracting meaningful latent features. Here, to determine the dimensionality of the latent space with nonnegative RESCAL, we propose a latent dimension determination method which is based on clustering of the solutions of multiple realizations of nonnegative RESCAL decompositions. We demonstrate the performance of our model selection method on synthetic data and then we apply our method to decompose a network of international trade flows data from International Monetary Fund and validate the resulting features against empirical facts from economic literature.

In discriminative settings such as regression and classification there are two random variables at play, the inputs X and the targets Y. Here, we demonstrate that the Variational Information Bottleneck can be viewed as a compromise between fully empirical and fully Bayesian objectives, attempting to minimize the risks due to finite sampling of Y only. We argue that this approach provides some of the benefits of Bayes while requiring only some of the work.

In image generation, Multiple Latent Variable Generative Models (MLVGMs) employ multiple latent variables to gradually shape the final images, from global characteristics to finer and local details (e.g., StyleGAN, NVAE), emerging as powerful tools for diverse applications. Yet their generative dynamics remain only empirically observed, without a systematic understanding of each latent variable's impact. In this work, we propose a novel framework that quantifies the contribution of each latent variable using Mutual Information (MI) as a metric. Our analysis reveals that current MLVGMs often underutilize some latent variables, and provides actionable insights for their use in downstream applications. With this foundation, we introduce a method for generating synthetic data for Self-Supervised Contrastive Representation Learning (SSCRL). By leveraging the hierarchical and disentangled variables of MLVGMs, our approach produces diverse and semantically meaningful views without the need for real image data. Additionally, we introduce a Continuous Sampling (CS) strategy, where the generator dynamically creates new samples during SSCRL training, greatly increasing data variability. Our comprehensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of these contributions, showing that MLVGMs' generated views compete on par with or even surpass views generated from real data. This work establishes a principled approach to understanding and exploiting MLVGMs, advancing both generative modeling and self-supervised learning. Code and pre-trained models at: https://github.com/SerezD/mi_ml_gen.

Latent diffusion models (LDMs) power state-of-the-art high-resolution generative image models. LDMs learn the data distribution in the latent space of an autoencoder (AE) and produce images by mapping the generated latents into RGB image space using the AE decoder. While this approach allows for efficient model training and sampling, it induces a disconnect between the training of the diffusion model and the decoder, resulting in a loss of detail in the generated images. To remediate this disconnect, we propose to leverage the internal features of the decoder to define a latent perceptual loss (LPL). This loss encourages the models to create sharper and more realistic images. Our loss can be seamlessly integrated with common autoencoders used in latent diffusion models, and can be applied to different generative modeling paradigms such as DDPM with epsilon and velocity prediction, as well as flow matching. Extensive experiments with models trained on three datasets at 256 and 512 resolution show improved quantitative -- with boosts between 6% and 20% in FID -- and qualitative results when using our perceptual loss.

Variational inference using the reparameterization trick has enabled large-scale approximate Bayesian inference in complex probabilistic models, leveraging stochastic optimization to sidestep intractable expectations. The reparameterization trick is applicable when we can simulate a random variable by applying a differentiable deterministic function on an auxiliary random variable whose distribution is fixed. For many distributions of interest (such as the gamma or Dirichlet), simulation of random variables relies on acceptance-rejection sampling. The discontinuity introduced by the accept-reject step means that standard reparameterization tricks are not applicable. We propose a new method that lets us leverage reparameterization gradients even when variables are outputs of a acceptance-rejection sampling algorithm. Our approach enables reparameterization on a larger class of variational distributions. In several studies of real and synthetic data, we show that the variance of the estimator of the gradient is significantly lower than other state-of-the-art methods. This leads to faster convergence of stochastic gradient variational inference.

Data-driven deep learning models are transforming global weather forecasting. It is an open question if this success can extend to climate modeling, where the complexity of the data and long inference rollouts pose significant challenges. Here, we present the first conditional generative model that produces accurate and physically consistent global climate ensemble simulations by emulating a coarse version of the United States' primary operational global forecast model, FV3GFS. Our model integrates the dynamics-informed diffusion framework (DYffusion) with the Spherical Fourier Neural Operator (SFNO) architecture, enabling stable 100-year simulations at 6-hourly timesteps while maintaining low computational overhead compared to single-step deterministic baselines. The model achieves near gold-standard performance for climate model emulation, outperforming existing approaches and demonstrating promising ensemble skill. This work represents a significant advance towards efficient, data-driven climate simulations that can enhance our understanding of the climate system and inform adaptation strategies.

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are considered the gold standard for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) of interventions. One use of RCTs is to study the causes of global poverty -- a subject explicitly cited in the 2019 Nobel Memorial Prize awarded to Duflo, Banerjee, and Kremer "for their experimental approach to alleviating global poverty." Because the ATE is a population summary, anti-poverty experiments often seek to unpack the effect variation around the ATE by conditioning (CATE) on tabular variables such as age and ethnicity that were measured during the RCT data collection. Although such variables are key to unpacking CATE, using only such variables may fail to capture historical, geographical, or neighborhood-specific contributors to effect variation, as tabular RCT data are often only observed near the time of the experiment. In global poverty research, when the location of the experiment units is approximately known, satellite imagery can provide a window into such factors important for understanding heterogeneity. However, there is no method that specifically enables applied researchers to analyze CATE from images. In this paper, using a deep probabilistic modeling framework, we develop such a method that estimates latent clusters of images by identifying images with similar treatment effects distributions. Our interpretable image CATE model also includes a sensitivity factor that quantifies the importance of image segments contributing to the effect cluster prediction. We compare the proposed methods against alternatives in simulation; also, we show how the model works in an actual RCT, estimating the effects of an anti-poverty intervention in northern Uganda and obtaining a posterior predictive distribution over effects for the rest of the country where no experimental data was collected. We make all models available in open-source software.

Deep generative models are routinely used in generating samples from complex, high-dimensional distributions. Despite their apparent successes, their statistical properties are not well understood. A common assumption is that with enough training data and sufficiently large neural networks, deep generative model samples will have arbitrarily small errors in sampling from any continuous target distribution. We set up a unifying framework that debunks this belief. We demonstrate that broad classes of deep generative models, including variational autoencoders and generative adversarial networks, are not universal generators. Under the predominant case of Gaussian latent variables, these models can only generate concentrated samples that exhibit light tails. Using tools from concentration of measure and convex geometry, we give analogous results for more general log-concave and strongly log-concave latent variable distributions. We extend our results to diffusion models via a reduction argument. We use the Gromov--Levy inequality to give similar guarantees when the latent variables lie on manifolds with positive Ricci curvature. These results shed light on the limited capacity of common deep generative models to handle heavy tails. We illustrate the empirical relevance of our work with simulations and financial data.

Latent variable generative models have emerged as powerful tools for generative tasks including image and video synthesis. These models are enabled by pretrained autoencoders that map high resolution data into a compressed lower dimensional latent space, where the generative models can subsequently be developed while requiring fewer computational resources. Despite their effectiveness, the direct application of latent variable models to higher dimensional domains such as videos continues to pose challenges for efficient training and inference. In this paper, we propose an autoencoder that projects volumetric data onto a four-plane factorized latent space that grows sublinearly with the input size, making it ideal for higher dimensional data like videos. The design of our factorized model supports straightforward adoption in a number of conditional generation tasks with latent diffusion models (LDMs), such as class-conditional generation, frame prediction, and video interpolation. Our results show that the proposed four-plane latent space retains a rich representation needed for high-fidelity reconstructions despite the heavy compression, while simultaneously enabling LDMs to operate with significant improvements in speed and memory.

Consistency models are a new family of generative models capable of producing high-quality samples in either a single step or multiple steps. Recently, consistency models have demonstrated impressive performance, achieving results on par with diffusion models in the pixel space. However, the success of scaling consistency training to large-scale datasets, particularly for text-to-image and video generation tasks, is determined by performance in the latent space. In this work, we analyze the statistical differences between pixel and latent spaces, discovering that latent data often contains highly impulsive outliers, which significantly degrade the performance of iCT in the latent space. To address this, we replace Pseudo-Huber losses with Cauchy losses, effectively mitigating the impact of outliers. Additionally, we introduce a diffusion loss at early timesteps and employ optimal transport (OT) coupling to further enhance performance. Lastly, we introduce the adaptive scaling-c scheduler to manage the robust training process and adopt Non-scaling LayerNorm in the architecture to better capture the statistics of the features and reduce outlier impact. With these strategies, we successfully train latent consistency models capable of high-quality sampling with one or two steps, significantly narrowing the performance gap between latent consistency and diffusion models. The implementation is released here: https://github.com/quandao10/sLCT/

Pixel-wise predictions are required in a wide variety of tasks such as image restoration, image segmentation, or disparity estimation. Common models involve several stages of data resampling, in which the resolution of feature maps is first reduced to aggregate information and then increased to generate a high-resolution output. Previous works have shown that resampling operations are subject to artifacts such as aliasing. During downsampling, aliases have been shown to compromise the prediction stability of image classifiers. During upsampling, they have been leveraged to detect generated content. Yet, the effect of aliases during upsampling has not yet been discussed w.r.t. the stability and robustness of pixel-wise predictions. While falling under the same term (aliasing), the challenges for correct upsampling in neural networks differ significantly from those during downsampling: when downsampling, some high frequencies can not be correctly represented and have to be removed to avoid aliases. However, when upsampling for pixel-wise predictions, we actually require the model to restore such high frequencies that can not be encoded in lower resolutions. The application of findings from signal processing is therefore a necessary but not a sufficient condition to achieve the desirable output. In contrast, we find that the availability of large spatial context during upsampling allows to provide stable, high-quality pixel-wise predictions, even when fully learning all filter weights.

Recent advances in AI weather forecasting have led to the emergence of so-called "foundation models", typically defined by expensive pretraining and minimal fine-tuning for downstream tasks. However, in the natural sciences, a desirable foundation model should also encode meaningful statistical relationships between the underlying physical variables. This study evaluates the performance of the state-of-the-art Aurora foundation model in predicting hydrological variables, which were not considered during pretraining. We introduce a lightweight approach using shallow decoders trained on the latent representations of the pretrained model to predict these new variables. As a baseline, we compare this to fine-tuning the full model, which allows further optimization of the latent space while incorporating new variables into both inputs and outputs. The decoder-based approach requires 50% less training time and 35% less memory, while achieving strong accuracy across various hydrological variables and preserving desirable properties of the foundation model, such as autoregressive stability. Notably, decoder accuracy depends on the physical correlation between the new variables and those used during pretraining, indicating that Aurora's latent space captures meaningful physical relationships. In this sense, we argue that an important quality metric for foundation models in Earth sciences is their ability to be extended to new variables without a full fine-tuning. This provides a new perspective for making foundation models more accessible to communities with limited computational resources, while supporting broader adoption in Earth sciences.

Diffusion models have recently emerged as powerful generative priors for solving inverse problems. However, training diffusion models in the pixel space are both data-intensive and computationally demanding, which restricts their applicability as priors for high-dimensional real-world data such as medical images. Latent diffusion models, which operate in a much lower-dimensional space, offer a solution to these challenges. However, incorporating latent diffusion models to solve inverse problems remains a challenging problem due to the nonlinearity of the encoder and decoder. To address these issues, we propose ReSample, an algorithm that can solve general inverse problems with pre-trained latent diffusion models. Our algorithm incorporates data consistency by solving an optimization problem during the reverse sampling process, a concept that we term as hard data consistency. Upon solving this optimization problem, we propose a novel resampling scheme to map the measurement-consistent sample back onto the noisy data manifold and theoretically demonstrate its benefits. Lastly, we apply our algorithm to solve a wide range of linear and nonlinear inverse problems in both natural and medical images, demonstrating that our approach outperforms existing state-of-the-art approaches, including those based on pixel-space diffusion models.

Multi-modal data-sets are ubiquitous in modern applications, and multi-modal Variational Autoencoders are a popular family of models that aim to learn a joint representation of the different modalities. However, existing approaches suffer from a coherence-quality tradeoff, where models with good generation quality lack generative coherence across modalities, and vice versa. We discuss the limitations underlying the unsatisfactory performance of existing methods, to motivate the need for a different approach. We propose a novel method that uses a set of independently trained, uni-modal, deterministic autoencoders. Individual latent variables are concatenated into a common latent space, which is fed to a masked diffusion model to enable generative modeling. We also introduce a new multi-time training method to learn the conditional score network for multi-modal diffusion. Our methodology substantially outperforms competitors in both generation quality and coherence, as shown through an extensive experimental campaign.

Score distillation sampling (SDS) has shown great promise in text-to-3D generation by distilling pretrained large-scale text-to-image diffusion models, but suffers from over-saturation, over-smoothing, and low-diversity problems. In this work, we propose to model the 3D parameter as a random variable instead of a constant as in SDS and present variational score distillation (VSD), a principled particle-based variational framework to explain and address the aforementioned issues in text-to-3D generation. We show that SDS is a special case of VSD and leads to poor samples with both small and large CFG weights. In comparison, VSD works well with various CFG weights as ancestral sampling from diffusion models and simultaneously improves the diversity and sample quality with a common CFG weight (i.e., 7.5). We further present various improvements in the design space for text-to-3D such as distillation time schedule and density initialization, which are orthogonal to the distillation algorithm yet not well explored. Our overall approach, dubbed ProlificDreamer, can generate high rendering resolution (i.e., 512times512) and high-fidelity NeRF with rich structure and complex effects (e.g., smoke and drops). Further, initialized from NeRF, meshes fine-tuned by VSD are meticulously detailed and photo-realistic. Project page: https://ml.cs.tsinghua.edu.cn/prolificdreamer/

The variational autoencoder (VAE) is a popular, deep, latent-variable model (DLVM) due to its simple yet effective formulation for modeling the data distribution. Moreover, optimizing the VAE objective function is more manageable than other DLVMs. The bottleneck dimension of the VAE is a crucial design choice, and it has strong ramifications for the model's performance, such as finding the hidden explanatory factors of a dataset using the representations learned by the VAE. However, the size of the latent dimension of the VAE is often treated as a hyperparameter estimated empirically through trial and error. To this end, we propose a statistical formulation to discover the relevant latent factors required for modeling a dataset. In this work, we use a hierarchical prior in the latent space that estimates the variance of the latent axes using the encoded data, which identifies the relevant latent dimensions. For this, we replace the fixed prior in the VAE objective function with a hierarchical prior, keeping the remainder of the formulation unchanged. We call the proposed method the automatic relevancy detection in the variational autoencoder (ARD-VAE). We demonstrate the efficacy of the ARD-VAE on multiple benchmark datasets in finding the relevant latent dimensions and their effect on different evaluation metrics, such as FID score and disentanglement analysis.

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPM) have shown remarkable performance in unconditional image generation. However, due to the stochasticity of the generative process in DDPM, it is challenging to generate images with the desired semantics. In this work, we propose Iterative Latent Variable Refinement (ILVR), a method to guide the generative process in DDPM to generate high-quality images based on a given reference image. Here, the refinement of the generative process in DDPM enables a single DDPM to sample images from various sets directed by the reference image. The proposed ILVR method generates high-quality images while controlling the generation. The controllability of our method allows adaptation of a single DDPM without any additional learning in various image generation tasks, such as generation from various downsampling factors, multi-domain image translation, paint-to-image, and editing with scribbles.

Latent diffusion models have become the popular choice for scaling up diffusion models for high resolution image synthesis. Compared to pixel-space models that are trained end-to-end, latent models are perceived to be more efficient and to produce higher image quality at high resolution. Here we challenge these notions, and show that pixel-space models can in fact be very competitive to latent approaches both in quality and efficiency, achieving 1.5 FID on ImageNet512 and new SOTA results on ImageNet128 and ImageNet256. We present a simple recipe for scaling end-to-end pixel-space diffusion models to high resolutions. 1: Use the sigmoid loss (Kingma & Gao, 2023) with our prescribed hyper-parameters. 2: Use our simplified memory-efficient architecture with fewer skip-connections. 3: Scale the model to favor processing the image at high resolution with fewer parameters, rather than using more parameters but at a lower resolution. When combining these three steps with recently proposed tricks like guidance intervals, we obtain a family of pixel-space diffusion models we call Simple Diffusion v2 (SiD2).

Despite the impressive generalization capabilities of deep neural networks, they have been repeatedly shown to be overconfident when they are wrong. Fixing this issue is known as model calibration, and has consequently received much attention in the form of modified training schemes and post-training calibration procedures such as temperature scaling. While temperature scaling is frequently used because of its simplicity, it is often outperformed by modified training schemes. In this work, we identify a specific bottleneck for the performance of temperature scaling. We show that for empirical risk minimizers for a general set of distributions in which the supports of classes have overlaps, the performance of temperature scaling degrades with the amount of overlap between classes, and asymptotically becomes no better than random when there are a large number of classes. On the other hand, we prove that optimizing a modified form of the empirical risk induced by the Mixup data augmentation technique can in fact lead to reasonably good calibration performance, showing that training-time calibration may be necessary in some situations. We also verify that our theoretical results reflect practice by showing that Mixup significantly outperforms empirical risk minimization (with respect to multiple calibration metrics) on image classification benchmarks with class overlaps introduced in the form of label noise.

Causal inference plays a vital role in diverse domains like epidemiology, healthcare, and economics. De-confounding and counterfactual prediction in observational data has emerged as a prominent concern in causal inference research. While existing models tackle observed confounders, the presence of unobserved confounders remains a significant challenge, distorting causal inference and impacting counterfactual outcome accuracy. To address this, we propose a novel variational learning model of unobserved confounders for counterfactual inference (VLUCI), which generates the posterior distribution of unobserved confounders. VLUCI relaxes the unconfoundedness assumption often overlooked by most causal inference methods. By disentangling observed and unobserved confounders, VLUCI constructs a doubly variational inference model to approximate the distribution of unobserved confounders, which are used for inferring more accurate counterfactual outcomes. Extensive experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets demonstrate VLUCI's superior performance in inferring unobserved confounders. It is compatible with state-of-the-art counterfactual inference models, significantly improving inference accuracy at both group and individual levels. Additionally, VLUCI provides confidence intervals for counterfactual outcomes, aiding decision-making in risk-sensitive domains. We further clarify the considerations when applying VLUCI to cases where unobserved confounders don't strictly conform to our model assumptions using the public IHDP dataset as an example, highlighting the practical advantages of VLUCI.

Machine learning models trained on Earth observation data, such as satellite imagery, have demonstrated significant promise in predicting household-level wealth indices, enabling the creation of high-resolution wealth maps that can be leveraged across multiple causal trials. However, because standard training objectives prioritize overall predictive accuracy, these predictions inherently suffer from shrinkage toward the mean, leading to attenuated estimates of causal treatment effects and limiting their utility in policy. Existing debiasing methods, such as Prediction-Powered Inference, can handle this attenuation bias but require additional fresh ground-truth data at the downstream stage of causal inference, which restricts their applicability in data-scarce environments. Here, we introduce and evaluate two correction methods -- linear calibration correction and Tweedie's correction -- that substantially reduce prediction bias without relying on newly collected labeled data. Linear calibration corrects bias through a straightforward linear transformation derived from held-out calibration data, whereas Tweedie's correction leverages empirical Bayes principles to directly address shrinkage-induced biases by exploiting score functions derived from the model's learning patterns. Through analytical exercises and experiments using Demographic and Health Survey data, we demonstrate that the proposed methods meet or outperform existing approaches that either require (a) adjustments to training pipelines or (b) additional labeled data. These approaches may represent a promising avenue for improving the reliability of causal inference when direct outcome measures are limited or unavailable, enabling a "one map, many trials" paradigm where a single upstream data creation team produces predictions usable by many downstream teams across diverse ML pipelines.

Visual Auto-Regressive modeling (VAR) has shown promise in bridging the speed and quality gap between autoregressive image models and diffusion models. VAR reformulates autoregressive modeling by decomposing an image into successive resolution scales. During inference, an image is generated by predicting all the tokens in the next (higher-resolution) scale, conditioned on all tokens in all previous (lower-resolution) scales. However, this formulation suffers from reduced image quality due to the parallel generation of all tokens in a resolution scale; has sequence lengths scaling superlinearly in image resolution; and requires retraining to change the sampling schedule. We introduce Hierarchical Masked Auto-Regressive modeling (HMAR), a new image generation algorithm that alleviates these issues using next-scale prediction and masked prediction to generate high-quality images with fast sampling. HMAR reformulates next-scale prediction as a Markovian process, wherein the prediction of each resolution scale is conditioned only on tokens in its immediate predecessor instead of the tokens in all predecessor resolutions. When predicting a resolution scale, HMAR uses a controllable multi-step masked generation procedure to generate a subset of the tokens in each step. On ImageNet 256x256 and 512x512 benchmarks, HMAR models match or outperform parameter-matched VAR, diffusion, and autoregressive baselines. We develop efficient IO-aware block-sparse attention kernels that allow HMAR to achieve faster training and inference times over VAR by over 2.5x and 1.75x respectively, as well as over 3x lower inference memory footprint. Finally, HMAR yields additional flexibility over VAR; its sampling schedule can be changed without further training, and it can be applied to image editing tasks in a zero-shot manner.

Reversing a diffusion process by learning its score forms the heart of diffusion-based generative modeling and for estimating properties of scientific systems. The diffusion processes that are tractable center on linear processes with a Gaussian stationary distribution. This limits the kinds of models that can be built to those that target a Gaussian prior or more generally limits the kinds of problems that can be generically solved to those that have conditionally linear score functions. In this work, we introduce a family of tractable denoising score matching objectives, called local-DSM, built using local increments of the diffusion process. We show how local-DSM melded with Taylor expansions enables automated training and score estimation with nonlinear diffusion processes. To demonstrate these ideas, we use automated-DSM to train generative models using non-Gaussian priors on challenging low dimensional distributions and the CIFAR10 image dataset. Additionally, we use the automated-DSM to learn the scores for nonlinear processes studied in statistical physics.

With the success of machine learning (ML) applied to climate reaching further every day, emulators have begun to show promise not only for weather but for multi-year time scales in the atmosphere. Similar work for the ocean remains nascent, with state-of-the-art limited to models running for shorter time scales or only for regions of the globe. In this work, we demonstrate high-skill global emulation for surface ocean fields over 5-8 years of model rollout, accurately representing modes of variability for two different ML architectures (ConvNext and Transformers). In addition, we address the outstanding question of generalization, an essential consideration if the end-use of emulation is to model warming scenarios outside of the model training data. We show that 1) generalization is not an intrinsic feature of a data-driven emulator, 2) fine-tuning the emulator on only small amounts of additional data from a distribution similar to the test set can enable the emulator to perform well in a warmed climate, and 3) the forced emulators are robust to noise in the forcing.

The posterior collapse phenomenon in variational autoencoder (VAE), where the variational posterior distribution closely matches the prior distribution, can hinder the quality of the learned latent variables. As a consequence of posterior collapse, the latent variables extracted by the encoder in VAE preserve less information from the input data and thus fail to produce meaningful representations as input to the reconstruction process in the decoder. While this phenomenon has been an actively addressed topic related to VAE performance, the theory for posterior collapse remains underdeveloped, especially beyond the standard VAE. In this work, we advance the theoretical understanding of posterior collapse to two important and prevalent yet less studied classes of VAE: conditional VAE and hierarchical VAE. Specifically, via a non-trivial theoretical analysis of linear conditional VAE and hierarchical VAE with two levels of latent, we prove that the cause of posterior collapses in these models includes the correlation between the input and output of the conditional VAE and the effect of learnable encoder variance in the hierarchical VAE. We empirically validate our theoretical findings for linear conditional and hierarchical VAE and demonstrate that these results are also predictive for non-linear cases with extensive experiments.

We introduce Temporal Variational Implicit Neural Representations (TV-INRs), a probabilistic framework for modeling irregular multivariate time series that enables efficient individualized imputation and forecasting. By integrating implicit neural representations with latent variable models, TV-INRs learn distributions over time-continuous generator functions conditioned on signal-specific covariates. Unlike existing approaches that require extensive training, fine-tuning or meta-learning, our method achieves accurate individualized predictions through a single forward pass. Our experiments demonstrate that with a single TV-INRs instance, we can accurately solve diverse imputation and forecasting tasks, offering a computationally efficient and scalable solution for real-world applications. TV-INRs excel especially in low-data regimes, where it outperforms existing methods by an order of magnitude in mean squared error for imputation task.

To achieve scalable and accurate inference for latent Gaussian processes, we propose a variational approximation based on a family of Gaussian distributions whose covariance matrices have sparse inverse Cholesky (SIC) factors. We combine this variational approximation of the posterior with a similar and efficient SIC-restricted Kullback-Leibler-optimal approximation of the prior. We then focus on a particular SIC ordering and nearest-neighbor-based sparsity pattern resulting in highly accurate prior and posterior approximations. For this setting, our variational approximation can be computed via stochastic gradient descent in polylogarithmic time per iteration. We provide numerical comparisons showing that the proposed double-Kullback-Leibler-optimal Gaussian-process approximation (DKLGP) can sometimes be vastly more accurate for stationary kernels than alternative approaches such as inducing-point and mean-field approximations at similar computational complexity.

Backpropagation, the cornerstone of deep learning, is limited to computing gradients for continuous variables. This limitation poses challenges for problems involving discrete latent variables. To address this issue, we propose a novel approach to approximate the gradient of parameters involved in generating discrete latent variables. First, we examine the widely used Straight-Through (ST) heuristic and demonstrate that it works as a first-order approximation of the gradient. Guided by our findings, we propose ReinMax, which achieves second-order accuracy by integrating Heun's method, a second-order numerical method for solving ODEs. ReinMax does not require Hessian or other second-order derivatives, thus having negligible computation overheads. Extensive experimental results on various tasks demonstrate the superiority of ReinMax over the state of the art. Implementations are released at https://github.com/microsoft/ReinMax.

We study the scaling properties of latent diffusion models (LDMs) with an emphasis on their sampling efficiency. While improved network architecture and inference algorithms have shown to effectively boost sampling efficiency of diffusion models, the role of model size -- a critical determinant of sampling efficiency -- has not been thoroughly examined. Through empirical analysis of established text-to-image diffusion models, we conduct an in-depth investigation into how model size influences sampling efficiency across varying sampling steps. Our findings unveil a surprising trend: when operating under a given inference budget, smaller models frequently outperform their larger equivalents in generating high-quality results. Moreover, we extend our study to demonstrate the generalizability of the these findings by applying various diffusion samplers, exploring diverse downstream tasks, evaluating post-distilled models, as well as comparing performance relative to training compute. These findings open up new pathways for the development of LDM scaling strategies which can be employed to enhance generative capabilities within limited inference budgets.

High-resolution 3D object generation remains a challenging task primarily due to the limited availability of comprehensive annotated training data. Recent advancements have aimed to overcome this constraint by harnessing image generative models, pretrained on extensive curated web datasets, using knowledge transfer techniques like Score Distillation Sampling (SDS). Efficiently addressing the requirements of high-resolution rendering often necessitates the adoption of latent representation-based models, such as the Latent Diffusion Model (LDM). In this framework, a significant challenge arises: To compute gradients for individual image pixels, it is necessary to backpropagate gradients from the designated latent space through the frozen components of the image model, such as the VAE encoder used within LDM. However, this gradient propagation pathway has never been optimized, remaining uncontrolled during training. We find that the unregulated gradients adversely affect the 3D model's capacity in acquiring texture-related information from the image generative model, leading to poor quality appearance synthesis. To address this overarching challenge, we propose an innovative operation termed Pixel-wise Gradient Clipping (PGC) designed for seamless integration into existing 3D generative models, thereby enhancing their synthesis quality. Specifically, we control the magnitude of stochastic gradients by clipping the pixel-wise gradients efficiently, while preserving crucial texture-related gradient directions. Despite this simplicity and minimal extra cost, extensive experiments demonstrate the efficacy of our PGC in enhancing the performance of existing 3D generative models for high-resolution object rendering.

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have become the state-of-the-art in high-quality image generation. However, DPMs have an arbitrary noisy latent space with no interpretable or controllable semantics. Although there has been significant research effort to improve image sample quality, there is little work on representation-controlled generation using diffusion models. Specifically, causal modeling and controllable counterfactual generation using DPMs is an underexplored area. In this work, we propose CausalDiffAE, a diffusion-based causal representation learning framework to enable counterfactual generation according to a specified causal model. Our key idea is to use an encoder to extract high-level semantically meaningful causal variables from high-dimensional data and model stochastic variation using reverse diffusion. We propose a causal encoding mechanism that maps high-dimensional data to causally related latent factors and parameterize the causal mechanisms among latent factors using neural networks. To enforce the disentanglement of causal variables, we formulate a variational objective and leverage auxiliary label information in a prior to regularize the latent space. We propose a DDIM-based counterfactual generation procedure subject to do-interventions. Finally, to address the limited label supervision scenario, we also study the application of CausalDiffAE when a part of the training data is unlabeled, which also enables granular control over the strength of interventions in generating counterfactuals during inference. We empirically show that CausalDiffAE learns a disentangled latent space and is capable of generating high-quality counterfactual images.

Multi-speaker text-to-speech (TTS) using a few adaption data is a challenge in practical applications. To address that, we propose a zero-shot multi-speaker TTS, named nnSpeech, that could synthesis a new speaker voice without fine-tuning and using only one adaption utterance. Compared with using a speaker representation module to extract the characteristics of new speakers, our method bases on a speaker-guided conditional variational autoencoder and can generate a variable Z, which contains both speaker characteristics and content information. The latent variable Z distribution is approximated by another variable conditioned on reference mel-spectrogram and phoneme. Experiments on the English corpus, Mandarin corpus, and cross-dataset proves that our model could generate natural and similar speech with only one adaption speech.

Accurate crop yield forecasting is essential for global food security. However, current AI models systematically underperform when yields deviate from historical trends. We attribute this to the lack of rich, physically grounded datasets directly linking atmospheric states to yields. To address this, we introduce VITA (Variational Inference Transformer for Asymmetric data), a variational pretraining framework that learns representations from large satellite-based weather datasets and transfers to the ground-based limited measurements available for yield prediction. VITA is trained using detailed meteorological variables as proxy targets during pretraining and learns to predict latent atmospheric states under a seasonality-aware sinusoidal prior. This allows the model to be fine-tuned using limited weather statistics during deployment. Applied to 763 counties in the U.S. Corn Belt, VITA achieves state-of-the-art performance in predicting corn and soybean yields across all evaluation scenarios, particularly during extreme years, with statistically significant improvements (paired t-test, p < 0.0001). Importantly, VITA outperforms prior frameworks like GNN-RNN without soil data, and bigger foundational models (e.g., Chronos-Bolt) with less compute, making it practical for real-world use--especially in data-scarce regions. This work highlights how domain-aware AI design can overcome data limitations and support resilient agricultural forecasting in a changing climate.

Contrastively trained encoders have recently been proven to invert the data-generating process: they encode each input, e.g., an image, into the true latent vector that generated the image (Zimmermann et al., 2021). However, real-world observations often have inherent ambiguities. For instance, images may be blurred or only show a 2D view of a 3D object, so multiple latents could have generated them. This makes the true posterior for the latent vector probabilistic with heteroscedastic uncertainty. In this setup, we extend the common InfoNCE objective and encoders to predict latent distributions instead of points. We prove that these distributions recover the correct posteriors of the data-generating process, including its level of aleatoric uncertainty, up to a rotation of the latent space. In addition to providing calibrated uncertainty estimates, these posteriors allow the computation of credible intervals in image retrieval. They comprise images with the same latent as a given query, subject to its uncertainty. Code is available at https://github.com/mkirchhof/Probabilistic_Contrastive_Learning

Conditional visual generation has witnessed remarkable progress with the advent of diffusion models (DMs), especially in tasks like control-to-image generation. However, challenges such as expensive computational cost, high inference latency, and difficulties of integration with large language models (LLMs) have necessitated exploring alternatives to DMs. This paper introduces ControlVAR, a novel framework that explores pixel-level controls in visual autoregressive (VAR) modeling for flexible and efficient conditional generation. In contrast to traditional conditional models that learn the conditional distribution, ControlVAR jointly models the distribution of image and pixel-level conditions during training and imposes conditional controls during testing. To enhance the joint modeling, we adopt the next-scale AR prediction paradigm and unify control and image representations. A teacher-forcing guidance strategy is proposed to further facilitate controllable generation with joint modeling. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superior efficacy and flexibility of ControlVAR across various conditional generation tasks against popular conditional DMs, \eg, ControlNet and T2I-Adaptor. Code: https://github.com/lxa9867/ControlVAR.

Machine-learning-based parameterizations (i.e. representation of sub-grid processes) of global climate models or turbulent simulations have recently been proposed as a powerful alternative to physical, but empirical, representations, offering a lower computational cost and higher accuracy. Yet, those approaches still suffer from a lack of generalization and extrapolation beyond the training data, which is however critical to projecting climate change or unobserved regimes of turbulence. Here we show that a multi-fidelity approach, which integrates datasets of different accuracy and abundance, can provide the best of both worlds: the capacity to extrapolate leveraging the physically-based parameterization and a higher accuracy using the machine-learning-based parameterizations. In an application to climate modeling, the multi-fidelity framework yields more accurate climate projections without requiring major increase in computational resources. Our multi-fidelity randomized prior networks (MF-RPNs) combine physical parameterization data as low-fidelity and storm-resolving historical run's data as high-fidelity. To extrapolate beyond the training data, the MF-RPNs are tested on high-fidelity warming scenarios, +4K, data. We show the MF-RPN's capacity to return much more skillful predictions compared to either low- or high-fidelity (historical data) simulations trained only on one regime while providing trustworthy uncertainty quantification across a wide range of scenarios. Our approach paves the way for the use of machine-learning based methods that can optimally leverage historical observations or high-fidelity simulations and extrapolate to unseen regimes such as climate change.

Latent Diffusion Models (LDMs) capture the dynamic evolution of latent variables over time, blending patterns and multimodality in a generative system. Despite the proficiency of LDM in various applications, such as text-to-image generation, facilitated by robust text encoders and a variational autoencoder, the critical need to deploy large generative models on edge devices compels a search for more compact yet effective alternatives. Post Training Quantization (PTQ), a method to compress the operational size of deep learning models, encounters challenges when applied to LDM due to temporal and structural complexities. This study proposes a quantization strategy that efficiently quantize LDMs, leveraging Signal-to-Quantization-Noise Ratio (SQNR) as a pivotal metric for evaluation. By treating the quantization discrepancy as relative noise and identifying sensitive part(s) of a model, we propose an efficient quantization approach encompassing both global and local strategies. The global quantization process mitigates relative quantization noise by initiating higher-precision quantization on sensitive blocks, while local treatments address specific challenges in quantization-sensitive and time-sensitive modules. The outcomes of our experiments reveal that the implementation of both global and local treatments yields a highly efficient and effective Post Training Quantization (PTQ) of LDMs.

Partial correlations quantify linear association between two variables adjusting for the influence of the remaining variables. They form the backbone for graphical models and are readily obtained from the inverse of the covariance matrix. For compositional data, the covariance structure is specified from log ratios of variables, so unless we try to "open" the data via a normalization, this implies changes in the definition and interpretation of partial correlations. In the present work, we elucidate how results derived by Aitchison (1986) lead to a natural definition of partial correlation that has a number of advantages over current measures of association. For this, we show that the residuals of log-ratios between a variable with a reference, when adjusting for all remaining variables including the reference, are reference-independent. Since the reference itself can be controlled for, correlations between residuals are defined for the variables directly without the necessity to recur to ratios except when specifying which variables are partialled out. Thus, perhaps surprisingly, partial correlations do not have the problems commonly found with measures of pairwise association on compositional data. They are well-defined between two variables, are properly scaled, and allow for negative association. By design, they are subcompositionally incoherent, but they share this property with conventional partial correlations (where results change when adjusting for the influence of fewer variables). We discuss the equivalence with normalization-based approaches whenever the normalizing variables are controlled for. We also discuss the partial variances and correlations we obtain from a previously studied data set of Roman glass cups.

We propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian model for learning with a large (possibly infinite) number of tasks/episodes, which suits well the few-shot meta learning problem. We consider episode-wise random variables to model episode-specific target generative processes, where these local random variables are governed by a higher-level global random variate. The global variable helps memorize the important information from historic episodes while controlling how much the model needs to be adapted to new episodes in a principled Bayesian manner. Within our model framework, the prediction on a novel episode/task can be seen as a Bayesian inference problem. However, a main obstacle in learning with a large/infinite number of local random variables in online nature, is that one is not allowed to store the posterior distribution of the current local random variable for frequent future updates, typical in conventional variational inference. We need to be able to treat each local variable as a one-time iterate in the optimization. We propose a Normal-Inverse-Wishart model, for which we show that this one-time iterate optimization becomes feasible due to the approximate closed-form solutions for the local posterior distributions. The resulting algorithm is more attractive than the MAML in that it is not required to maintain computational graphs for the whole gradient optimization steps per episode. Our approach is also different from existing Bayesian meta learning methods in that unlike dealing with a single random variable for the whole episodes, our approach has a hierarchical structure that allows one-time episodic optimization, desirable for principled Bayesian learning with many/infinite tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/minyoungkim21/niwmeta.

Accurate probabilistic predictions are essential for optimal decision making. While neural network miscalibration has been studied primarily in classification, we investigate this in the less-explored domain of regression. We conduct the largest empirical study to date to assess the probabilistic calibration of neural networks. We also analyze the performance of recalibration, conformal, and regularization methods to enhance probabilistic calibration. Additionally, we introduce novel differentiable recalibration and regularization methods, uncovering new insights into their effectiveness. Our findings reveal that regularization methods offer a favorable tradeoff between calibration and sharpness. Post-hoc methods exhibit superior probabilistic calibration, which we attribute to the finite-sample coverage guarantee of conformal prediction. Furthermore, we demonstrate that quantile recalibration can be considered as a specific case of conformal prediction. Our study is fully reproducible and implemented in a common code base for fair comparisons.

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We first show that the marginal coverage guarantee of conformal prediction holds on imputed data for any missingness distribution and almost all imputation functions. However, we emphasize that the average coverage varies depending on the pattern of missing values: conformal methods tend to construct prediction intervals that under-cover the response conditionally to some missing patterns. This motivates our novel generalized conformalized quantile regression framework, missing data augmentation, which yields prediction intervals that are valid conditionally to the patterns of missing values, despite their exponential number. We then show that a universally consistent quantile regression algorithm trained on the imputed data is Bayes optimal for the pinball risk, thus achieving valid coverage conditionally to any given data point. Moreover, we examine the case of a linear model, which demonstrates the importance of our proposal in overcoming the heteroskedasticity induced by missing values. Using synthetic and data from critical care, we corroborate our theory and report improved performance of our methods.

Multimodal generative models require a unified approach to handle both discrete data (e.g., text and code) and continuous data (e.g., image, audio, video). In this work, we propose Latent Language Modeling (LatentLM), which seamlessly integrates continuous and discrete data using causal Transformers. Specifically, we employ a variational autoencoder (VAE) to represent continuous data as latent vectors and introduce next-token diffusion for autoregressive generation of these vectors. Additionally, we develop sigma-VAE to address the challenges of variance collapse, which is crucial for autoregressive modeling. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of LatentLM across various modalities. In image generation, LatentLM surpasses Diffusion Transformers in both performance and scalability. When integrated into multimodal large language models, LatentLM provides a general-purpose interface that unifies multimodal generation and understanding. Experimental results show that LatentLM achieves favorable performance compared to Transfusion and vector quantized models in the setting of scaling up training tokens. In text-to-speech synthesis, LatentLM outperforms the state-of-the-art VALL-E 2 model in speaker similarity and robustness, while requiring 10x fewer decoding steps. The results establish LatentLM as a highly effective and scalable approach to advance large multimodal models.

In variational inference, the benefits of Bayesian models rely on accurately capturing the true posterior distribution. We propose using neural samplers that specify implicit distributions, which are well-suited for approximating complex multimodal and correlated posteriors in high-dimensional spaces. Our approach introduces novel bounds for approximate inference using implicit distributions by locally linearising the neural sampler. This is distinct from existing methods that rely on additional discriminator networks and unstable adversarial objectives. Furthermore, we present a new sampler architecture that, for the first time, enables implicit distributions over tens of millions of latent variables, addressing computational concerns by using differentiable numerical approximations. We empirically show that our method is capable of recovering correlations across layers in large Bayesian neural networks, a property that is crucial for a network's performance but notoriously challenging to achieve. To the best of our knowledge, no other method has been shown to accomplish this task for such large models. Through experiments in downstream tasks, we demonstrate that our expressive posteriors outperform state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification methods, validating the effectiveness of our training algorithm and the quality of the learned implicit approximation.

During language model decoding, it is known that using higher temperature sampling gives more creative responses, while lower temperatures are more factually accurate. However, such models are commonly applied to general instruction following, which involves both creative and fact seeking tasks, using a single fixed temperature across all examples and tokens. In this work, we introduce Adaptive Decoding, a layer added to the model to select the sampling temperature dynamically at inference time, at either the token or example level, in order to optimize performance. To learn its parameters we introduce Latent Preference Optimization (LPO) a general approach to train discrete latent variables such as choices of temperature. Our method outperforms all fixed decoding temperatures across a range of tasks that require different temperatures, including UltraFeedback, Creative Story Writing, and GSM8K.

Latent variable models (LVMs) with discrete compositional latents are an important but challenging setting due to a combinatorially large number of possible configurations of the latents. A key tradeoff in modeling the posteriors over latents is between expressivity and tractable optimization. For algorithms based on expectation-maximization (EM), the E-step is often intractable without restrictive approximations to the posterior. We propose the use of GFlowNets, algorithms for sampling from an unnormalized density by learning a stochastic policy for sequential construction of samples, for this intractable E-step. By training GFlowNets to sample from the posterior over latents, we take advantage of their strengths as amortized variational inference algorithms for complex distributions over discrete structures. Our approach, GFlowNet-EM, enables the training of expressive LVMs with discrete compositional latents, as shown by experiments on non-context-free grammar induction and on images using discrete variational autoencoders (VAEs) without conditional independence enforced in the encoder.

We present Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR), a new generation paradigm that redefines the autoregressive learning on images as coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" or "next-resolution prediction", diverging from the standard raster-scan "next-token prediction". This simple, intuitive methodology allows autoregressive (AR) transformers to learn visual distributions fast and generalize well: VAR, for the first time, makes AR models surpass diffusion transformers in image generation. On ImageNet 256x256 benchmark, VAR significantly improve AR baseline by improving Frechet inception distance (FID) from 18.65 to 1.80, inception score (IS) from 80.4 to 356.4, with around 20x faster inference speed. It is also empirically verified that VAR outperforms the Diffusion Transformer (DiT) in multiple dimensions including image quality, inference speed, data efficiency, and scalability. Scaling up VAR models exhibits clear power-law scaling laws similar to those observed in LLMs, with linear correlation coefficients near -0.998 as solid evidence. VAR further showcases zero-shot generalization ability in downstream tasks including image in-painting, out-painting, and editing. These results suggest VAR has initially emulated the two important properties of LLMs: Scaling Laws and zero-shot task generalization. We have released all models and codes to promote the exploration of AR/VAR models for visual generation and unified learning.

We introduce nested diffusion models, an efficient and powerful hierarchical generative framework that substantially enhances the generation quality of diffusion models, particularly for images of complex scenes. Our approach employs a series of diffusion models to progressively generate latent variables at different semantic levels. Each model in this series is conditioned on the output of the preceding higher-level models, culminating in image generation. Hierarchical latent variables guide the generation process along predefined semantic pathways, allowing our approach to capture intricate structural details while significantly improving image quality. To construct these latent variables, we leverage a pre-trained visual encoder, which learns strong semantic visual representations, and modulate its capacity via dimensionality reduction and noise injection. Across multiple datasets, our system demonstrates significant enhancements in image quality for both unconditional and class/text conditional generation. Moreover, our unconditional generation system substantially outperforms the baseline conditional system. These advancements incur minimal computational overhead as the more abstract levels of our hierarchy work with lower-dimensional representations.

Temperature scaling is a popular technique for tuning the sharpness of a model distribution. It is used extensively for sampling likely generations and calibrating model uncertainty, and even features as a controllable parameter to many large language models in deployment. However, autoregressive models rely on myopic temperature scaling that greedily optimizes the next token. To address this, we propose Long Horizon Temperature Scaling (LHTS), a novel approach for sampling from temperature-scaled joint distributions. LHTS is compatible with all likelihood-based models, and optimizes for the long-horizon likelihood of samples. We derive a temperature-dependent LHTS objective, and show that fine-tuning a model on a range of temperatures produces a single model capable of generation with a controllable long-horizon temperature parameter. We experiment with LHTS on image diffusion models and character/language autoregressive models, demonstrating advantages over myopic temperature scaling in likelihood and sample quality, and showing improvements in accuracy on a multiple choice analogy task by 10%.

Characterizing the relationship between neural population activity and behavioral data is a central goal of neuroscience. While latent variable models (LVMs) are successful in describing high-dimensional time-series data, they are typically only designed for a single type of data, making it difficult to identify structure shared across different experimental data modalities. Here, we address this shortcoming by proposing an unsupervised LVM which extracts temporally evolving shared and independent latents for distinct, simultaneously recorded experimental modalities. We do this by combining Gaussian Process Factor Analysis (GPFA), an interpretable LVM for neural spiking data with temporally smooth latent space, with Gaussian Process Variational Autoencoders (GP-VAEs), which similarly use a GP prior to characterize correlations in a latent space, but admit rich expressivity due to a deep neural network mapping to observations. We achieve interpretability in our model by partitioning latent variability into components that are either shared between or independent to each modality. We parameterize the latents of our model in the Fourier domain, and show improved latent identification using this approach over standard GP-VAE methods. We validate our model on simulated multi-modal data consisting of Poisson spike counts and MNIST images that scale and rotate smoothly over time. We show that the multi-modal GP-VAE (MM-GPVAE) is able to not only identify the shared and independent latent structure across modalities accurately, but provides good reconstructions of both images and neural rates on held-out trials. Finally, we demonstrate our framework on two real world multi-modal experimental settings: Drosophila whole-brain calcium imaging alongside tracked limb positions, and Manduca sexta spike train measurements from ten wing muscles as the animal tracks a visual stimulus.

Visual Autoregressive (VAR) modeling departs from the next-token prediction paradigm of traditional Autoregressive (AR) models through next-scale prediction, enabling high-quality image generation. However, the VAR paradigm suffers from sharply increased computational complexity and running time at large-scale steps. Although existing acceleration methods reduce runtime for large-scale steps, but rely on manual step selection and overlook the varying importance of different stages in the generation process. To address this challenge, we present StageVAR, a systematic study and stage-aware acceleration framework for VAR models. Our analysis shows that early steps are critical for preserving semantic and structural consistency and should remain intact, while later steps mainly refine details and can be pruned or approximated for acceleration. Building on these insights, StageVAR introduces a plug-and-play acceleration strategy that exploits semantic irrelevance and low-rank properties in late-stage computations, without requiring additional training. Our proposed StageVAR achieves up to 3.4x speedup with only a 0.01 drop on GenEval and a 0.26 decrease on DPG, consistently outperforming existing acceleration baselines. These results highlight stage-aware design as a powerful principle for efficient visual autoregressive image generation.

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) (Ho et al. 2020) have shown impressive results on image and waveform generation in continuous state spaces. Here, we introduce Discrete Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (D3PMs), diffusion-like generative models for discrete data that generalize the multinomial diffusion model of Hoogeboom et al. 2021, by going beyond corruption processes with uniform transition probabilities. This includes corruption with transition matrices that mimic Gaussian kernels in continuous space, matrices based on nearest neighbors in embedding space, and matrices that introduce absorbing states. The third allows us to draw a connection between diffusion models and autoregressive and mask-based generative models. We show that the choice of transition matrix is an important design decision that leads to improved results in image and text domains. We also introduce a new loss function that combines the variational lower bound with an auxiliary cross entropy loss. For text, this model class achieves strong results on character-level text generation while scaling to large vocabularies on LM1B. On the image dataset CIFAR-10, our models approach the sample quality and exceed the log-likelihood of the continuous-space DDPM model.

Latent-based image generative models, such as Latent Diffusion Models (LDMs) and Mask Image Models (MIMs), have achieved notable success in image generation tasks. These models typically leverage reconstructive autoencoders like VQGAN or VAE to encode pixels into a more compact latent space and learn the data distribution in the latent space instead of directly from pixels. However, this practice raises a pertinent question: Is it truly the optimal choice? In response, we begin with an intriguing observation: despite sharing the same latent space, autoregressive models significantly lag behind LDMs and MIMs in image generation. This finding contrasts sharply with the field of NLP, where the autoregressive model GPT has established a commanding presence. To address this discrepancy, we introduce a unified perspective on the relationship between latent space and generative models, emphasizing the stability of latent space in image generative modeling. Furthermore, we propose a simple but effective discrete image tokenizer to stabilize the latent space for image generative modeling. Experimental results show that image autoregressive modeling with our tokenizer (DiGIT) benefits both image understanding and image generation with the next token prediction principle, which is inherently straightforward for GPT models but challenging for other generative models. Remarkably, for the first time, a GPT-style autoregressive model for images outperforms LDMs, which also exhibits substantial improvement akin to GPT when scaling up model size. Our findings underscore the potential of an optimized latent space and the integration of discrete tokenization in advancing the capabilities of image generative models. The code is available at https://github.com/DAMO-NLP-SG/DiGIT.

Learning the tail behavior of a distribution is a notoriously difficult problem. By definition, the number of samples from the tail is small, and deep generative models, such as normalizing flows, tend to concentrate on learning the body of the distribution. In this paper, we focus on improving the ability of normalizing flows to correctly capture the tail behavior and, thus, form more accurate models. We prove that the marginal tailedness of an autoregressive flow can be controlled via the tailedness of the marginals of its base distribution. This theoretical insight leads us to a novel type of flows based on flexible base distributions and data-driven linear layers. An empirical analysis shows that the proposed method improves on the accuracy -- especially on the tails of the distribution -- and is able to generate heavy-tailed data. We demonstrate its application on a weather and climate example, in which capturing the tail behavior is essential.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

Diffusion models (DMs) have revolutionized generative learning. They utilize a diffusion process to encode data into a simple Gaussian distribution. However, encoding a complex, potentially multimodal data distribution into a single continuous Gaussian distribution arguably represents an unnecessarily challenging learning problem. We propose Discrete-Continuous Latent Variable Diffusion Models (DisCo-Diff) to simplify this task by introducing complementary discrete latent variables. We augment DMs with learnable discrete latents, inferred with an encoder, and train DM and encoder end-to-end. DisCo-Diff does not rely on pre-trained networks, making the framework universally applicable. The discrete latents significantly simplify learning the DM's complex noise-to-data mapping by reducing the curvature of the DM's generative ODE. An additional autoregressive transformer models the distribution of the discrete latents, a simple step because DisCo-Diff requires only few discrete variables with small codebooks. We validate DisCo-Diff on toy data, several image synthesis tasks as well as molecular docking, and find that introducing discrete latents consistently improves model performance. For example, DisCo-Diff achieves state-of-the-art FID scores on class-conditioned ImageNet-64/128 datasets with ODE sampler.

Urbanization, climate change, and agricultural stress are increasing the demand for precise and timely environmental monitoring. Land Surface Temperature (LST) is a key variable in this context and is retrieved from remote sensing satellites. However, these systems face a trade-off between spatial and temporal resolution. While spatio-temporal fusion methods offer promising solutions, few have addressed the estimation of daily LST at 10 m resolution. In this study, we present WGAST, a Weakly-Supervised Generative Network for Daily 10 m LST Estimation via Spatio-Temporal Fusion of Terra MODIS, Landsat 8, and Sentinel-2. WGAST is the first end-to-end deep learning framework designed for this task. It adopts a conditional generative adversarial architecture, with a generator composed of four stages: feature extraction, fusion, LST reconstruction, and noise suppression. The first stage employs a set of encoders to extract multi-level latent representations from the inputs, which are then fused in the second stage using cosine similarity, normalization, and temporal attention mechanisms. The third stage decodes the fused features into high-resolution LST, followed by a Gaussian filter to suppress high-frequency noise. Training follows a weakly supervised strategy based on physical averaging principles and reinforced by a PatchGAN discriminator. Experiments demonstrate that WGAST outperforms existing methods in both quantitative and qualitative evaluations. Compared to the best-performing baseline, on average, WGAST reduces RMSE by 17.18% and improves SSIM by 11.00%. Furthermore, WGAST is robust to cloud-induced LST and effectively captures fine-scale thermal patterns, as validated against 33 ground-based sensors. The code is available at https://github.com/Sofianebouaziz1/WGAST.git.

Regularization of inverse problems is of paramount importance in computational imaging. The ability of neural networks to learn efficient image representations has been recently exploited to design powerful data-driven regularizers. While state-of-the-art plug-and-play (PnP) methods rely on an implicit regularization provided by neural denoisers, alternative Bayesian approaches consider Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) estimation in the latent space of a generative model, thus with an explicit regularization. However, state-of-the-art deep generative models require a huge amount of training data compared to denoisers. Besides, their complexity hampers the optimization involved in latent MAP derivation. In this work, we first propose to use compressive autoencoders instead. These networks, which can be seen as variational autoencoders with a flexible latent prior, are smaller and easier to train than state-of-the-art generative models. As a second contribution, we introduce the Variational Bayes Latent Estimation (VBLE) algorithm, which performs latent estimation within the framework of variational inference. Thanks to a simple yet efficient parameterization of the variational posterior, VBLE allows for fast and easy (approximate) posterior sampling. Experimental results on image datasets BSD and FFHQ demonstrate that VBLE reaches similar performance as state-of-the-art PnP methods, while being able to quantify uncertainties significantly faster than other existing posterior sampling techniques. The code associated to this paper is available in https://github.com/MaudBqrd/VBLE.

Understanding the risks posed by extreme rainfall events requires analysis of precipitation fields with high resolution (to assess localized hazards) and extensive historical coverage (to capture sufficient examples of rare occurrences). Radar and mesonet networks provide precipitation fields at 1 km resolution but with limited historical and geographical coverage, while gauge-based records and reanalysis products cover decades of time on a global scale, but only at 30-50 km resolution. To help provide high-resolution precipitation estimates over long time scales, this study presents Wasserstein Regularized Diffusion (WassDiff), a diffusion framework to downscale (super-resolve) precipitation fields from low-resolution gauge and reanalysis products. Crucially, unlike related deep generative models, WassDiff integrates a Wasserstein distribution-matching regularizer to the denoising process to reduce empirical biases at extreme intensities. Comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that WassDiff quantitatively outperforms existing state-of-the-art generative downscaling methods at recovering extreme weather phenomena such as tropical storms and cold fronts. Case studies further qualitatively demonstrate WassDiff's ability to reproduce realistic fine-scale weather structures and accurate peak intensities. By unlocking decades of high-resolution rainfall information from globally available coarse records, WassDiff offers a practical pathway toward more accurate flood-risk assessments and climate-adaptation planning.

Reverse sampling and score-distillation have emerged as main workhorses in recent years for image manipulation using latent diffusion models (LDMs). While reverse diffusion sampling often requires adjustments of LDM architecture or feature engineering, score distillation offers a simple yet powerful model-agnostic approach, but it is often prone to mode-collapsing. To address these limitations and leverage the strengths of both approaches, here we introduce a novel framework called {\em DreamSampler}, which seamlessly integrates these two distinct approaches through the lens of regularized latent optimization. Similar to score-distillation, DreamSampler is a model-agnostic approach applicable to any LDM architecture, but it allows both distillation and reverse sampling with additional guidance for image editing and reconstruction. Through experiments involving image editing, SVG reconstruction and etc, we demonstrate the competitive performance of DreamSampler compared to existing approaches, while providing new applications.

Document editing has become a pervasive component of the production of information, with version control systems enabling edits to be efficiently stored and applied. In light of this, the task of learning distributed representations of edits has been recently proposed. With this in mind, we propose a novel approach that employs variational inference to learn a continuous latent space of vector representations to capture the underlying semantic information with regard to the document editing process. We achieve this by introducing a latent variable to explicitly model the aforementioned features. This latent variable is then combined with a document representation to guide the generation of an edited version of this document. Additionally, to facilitate standardized automatic evaluation of edit representations, which has heavily relied on direct human input thus far, we also propose a suite of downstream tasks, PEER, specifically designed to measure the quality of edit representations in the context of natural language processing.

Over the past years, foundation models have caused a paradigm shift in machine learning due to their unprecedented capabilities for zero-shot and few-shot generalization. However, despite the success of foundation models in modalities such as natural language processing and computer vision, the development of foundation models for time series forecasting has lagged behind. We present Lag-Llama, a general-purpose foundation model for univariate probabilistic time series forecasting based on a decoder-only transformer architecture that uses lags as covariates. Lag-Llama is pretrained on a large corpus of diverse time series data from several domains, and demonstrates strong zero-shot generalization capabilities compared to a wide range of forecasting models on downstream datasets across domains. Moreover, when fine-tuned on relatively small fractions of such previously unseen datasets, Lag-Llama achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming prior deep learning approaches, emerging as the best general-purpose model on average. Lag-Llama serves as a strong contender to the current state-of-art in time series forecasting and paves the way for future advancements in foundation models tailored to time series data.

Full-complexity Earth system models (ESMs) are computationally very expensive, limiting their use in exploring the climate outcomes of multiple emission pathways. More efficient emulators that approximate ESMs can directly map emissions onto climate outcomes, and benchmarks are being used to evaluate their accuracy on standardized tasks and datasets. We investigate a popular benchmark in data-driven climate emulation, ClimateBench, on which deep learning-based emulators are currently achieving the best performance. We implement a linear regression-based emulator, akin to pattern scaling, and find that it outperforms the incumbent 100M-parameter deep learning foundation model, ClimaX, on 3 out of 4 regionally-resolved surface-level climate variables. While emulating surface temperature is expected to be predominantly linear, this result is surprising for emulating precipitation. We identify that this outcome is a result of high levels of internal variability in the benchmark targets. To address internal variability, we update the benchmark targets with ensemble averages from the MPI-ESM1.2-LR model that contain 50 instead of 3 climate simulations per emission pathway. Using the new targets, we show that linear pattern scaling continues to be more accurate on temperature, but can be outperformed by a deep learning-based model for emulating precipitation. We publish our code, data, and an interactive tutorial at github.com/blutjens/climate-emulator.

With significant advancements in diffusion models, addressing the potential risks of dataset bias becomes increasingly important. Since generated outputs directly suffer from dataset bias, mitigating latent bias becomes a key factor in improving sample quality and proportion. This paper proposes time-dependent importance reweighting to mitigate the bias for the diffusion models. We demonstrate that the time-dependent density ratio becomes more precise than previous approaches, thereby minimizing error propagation in generative learning. While directly applying it to score-matching is intractable, we discover that using the time-dependent density ratio both for reweighting and score correction can lead to a tractable form of the objective function to regenerate the unbiased data density. Furthermore, we theoretically establish a connection with traditional score-matching, and we demonstrate its convergence to an unbiased distribution. The experimental evidence supports the usefulness of the proposed method, which outperforms baselines including time-independent importance reweighting on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, FFHQ, and CelebA with various bias settings. Our code is available at https://github.com/alsdudrla10/TIW-DSM.

The variational autoencoder (VAE) framework remains a popular option for training unsupervised generative models, especially for discrete data where generative adversarial networks (GANs) require workaround to create gradient for the generator. In our work modeling US postal addresses, we show that our discrete VAE with tree recursive architecture demonstrates limited capability of capturing field correlations within structured data, even after overcoming the challenge of posterior collapse with scheduled sampling and tuning of the KL-divergence weight beta. Worse, VAE seems to have difficulty mapping its generated samples to the latent space, as their VAE loss lags behind or even increases during the training process. Motivated by this observation, we show that augmenting training data with generated variants (augmented training) and training a VAE with multiple values of beta simultaneously (multiscale VAE) both improve the generation quality of VAE. Despite their differences in motivation and emphasis, we show that augmented training and multiscale VAE are actually connected and have similar effects on the model.

While score-based generative models are the model of choice across diverse domains, there are limited tools available for controlling inference-time behavior in a principled manner, e.g. for composing multiple pretrained models. Existing classifier-free guidance methods use a simple heuristic to mix conditional and unconditional scores to approximately sample from conditional distributions. However, such methods do not approximate the intermediate distributions, necessitating additional 'corrector' steps. In this work, we provide an efficient and principled method for sampling from a sequence of annealed, geometric-averaged, or product distributions derived from pretrained score-based models. We derive a weighted simulation scheme which we call Feynman-Kac Correctors (FKCs) based on the celebrated Feynman-Kac formula by carefully accounting for terms in the appropriate partial differential equations (PDEs). To simulate these PDEs, we propose Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) resampling algorithms that leverage inference-time scaling to improve sampling quality. We empirically demonstrate the utility of our methods by proposing amortized sampling via inference-time temperature annealing, improving multi-objective molecule generation using pretrained models, and improving classifier-free guidance for text-to-image generation. Our code is available at https://github.com/martaskrt/fkc-diffusion.

PixelCNNs are a recently proposed class of powerful generative models with tractable likelihood. Here we discuss our implementation of PixelCNNs which we make available at https://github.com/openai/pixel-cnn. Our implementation contains a number of modifications to the original model that both simplify its structure and improve its performance. 1) We use a discretized logistic mixture likelihood on the pixels, rather than a 256-way softmax, which we find to speed up training. 2) We condition on whole pixels, rather than R/G/B sub-pixels, simplifying the model structure. 3) We use downsampling to efficiently capture structure at multiple resolutions. 4) We introduce additional short-cut connections to further speed up optimization. 5) We regularize the model using dropout. Finally, we present state-of-the-art log likelihood results on CIFAR-10 to demonstrate the usefulness of these modifications.

Time Series Imputation (TSI), which aims to recover missing values in temporal data, remains a fundamental challenge due to the complex and often high-rate missingness in real-world scenarios. Existing models typically optimize the point-wise reconstruction loss, focusing on recovering numerical values (local information). However, we observe that under high missing rates, these models still perform well in the training phase yet produce poor imputations and distorted latent representation distributions (global information) in the inference phase. This reveals a critical optimization dilemma: current objectives lack global guidance, leading models to overfit local noise and fail to capture global information of the data. To address this issue, we propose a new training paradigm, Glocal Information Bottleneck (Glocal-IB). Glocal-IB is model-agnostic and extends the standard IB framework by introducing a Global Alignment loss, derived from a tractable mutual information approximation. This loss aligns the latent representations of masked inputs with those of their originally observed counterparts. It helps the model retain global structure and local details while suppressing noise caused by missing values, giving rise to better generalization under high missingness. Extensive experiments on nine datasets confirm that Glocal-IB leads to consistently improved performance and aligned latent representations under missingness. Our code implementation is available in https://github.com/Muyiiiii/NeurIPS-25-Glocal-IB.

Numerical simulation of non-linear partial differential equations plays a crucial role in modeling physical science and engineering phenomena, such as weather, climate, and aerodynamics. Recent Machine Learning (ML) models trained on low-resolution spatio-temporal signals have shown new promises in capturing important dynamics in high-resolution signals, under the condition that the models can effectively recover the missing details. However, this study shows that significant information is often lost in the low-resolution down-sampled features. To address such issues, we propose a new approach, namely Temporal Stencil Modeling (TSM), which combines the strengths of advanced time-series sequence modeling (with the HiPPO features) and state-of-the-art neural PDE solvers (with learnable stencil modeling). TSM aims to recover the lost information from the PDE trajectories and can be regarded as a temporal generalization of classic finite volume methods such as WENO. Our experimental results show that TSM achieves the new state-of-the-art simulation accuracy for 2-D incompressible Navier-Stokes turbulent flows: it significantly outperforms the previously reported best results by 19.9% in terms of the highly-correlated duration time and reduces the inference latency into 80%. We also show a strong generalization ability of the proposed method to various out-of-distribution turbulent flow settings. Our code is available at "https://github.com/Edward-Sun/TSM-PDE".

Recent advances in auto-regressive transformers have revolutionized generative modeling across different domains, from language processing to visual generation, demonstrating remarkable capabilities. However, applying these advances to 3D generation presents three key challenges: the unordered nature of 3D data conflicts with sequential next-token prediction paradigm, conventional vector quantization approaches incur substantial compression loss when applied to 3D meshes, and the lack of efficient scaling strategies for higher resolution latent prediction. To address these challenges, we introduce MAR-3D, which integrates a pyramid variational autoencoder with a cascaded masked auto-regressive transformer (Cascaded MAR) for progressive latent upscaling in the continuous space. Our architecture employs random masking during training and auto-regressive denoising in random order during inference, naturally accommodating the unordered property of 3D latent tokens. Additionally, we propose a cascaded training strategy with condition augmentation that enables efficiently up-scale the latent token resolution with fast convergence. Extensive experiments demonstrate that MAR-3D not only achieves superior performance and generalization capabilities compared to existing methods but also exhibits enhanced scaling capabilities compared to joint distribution modeling approaches (e.g., diffusion transformers).

A key advance in learning generative models is the use of amortized inference distributions that are jointly trained with the models. We find that existing training objectives for variational autoencoders can lead to inaccurate amortized inference distributions and, in some cases, improving the objective provably degrades the inference quality. In addition, it has been observed that variational autoencoders tend to ignore the latent variables when combined with a decoding distribution that is too flexible. We again identify the cause in existing training criteria and propose a new class of objectives (InfoVAE) that mitigate these problems. We show that our model can significantly improve the quality of the variational posterior and can make effective use of the latent features regardless of the flexibility of the decoding distribution. Through extensive qualitative and quantitative analyses, we demonstrate that our models outperform competing approaches on multiple performance metrics.

A Neural Process (NP) estimates a stochastic process implicitly defined with neural networks given a stream of data, rather than pre-specifying priors already known, such as Gaussian processes. An ideal NP would learn everything from data without any inductive biases, but in practice, we often restrict the class of stochastic processes for the ease of estimation. One such restriction is the use of a finite-dimensional latent variable accounting for the uncertainty in the functions drawn from NPs. Some recent works show that this can be improved with more "data-driven" source of uncertainty such as bootstrapping. In this work, we take a different approach based on the martingale posterior, a recently developed alternative to Bayesian inference. For the martingale posterior, instead of specifying prior-likelihood pairs, a predictive distribution for future data is specified. Under specific conditions on the predictive distribution, it can be shown that the uncertainty in the generated future data actually corresponds to the uncertainty of the implicitly defined Bayesian posteriors. Based on this result, instead of assuming any form of the latent variables, we equip a NP with a predictive distribution implicitly defined with neural networks and use the corresponding martingale posteriors as the source of uncertainty. The resulting model, which we name as Martingale Posterior Neural Process (MPNP), is demonstrated to outperform baselines on various tasks.

Integrating physics models within machine learning models holds considerable promise toward learning robust models with improved interpretability and abilities to extrapolate. In this work, we focus on the integration of incomplete physics models into deep generative models. In particular, we introduce an architecture of variational autoencoders (VAEs) in which a part of the latent space is grounded by physics. A key technical challenge is to strike a balance between the incomplete physics and trainable components such as neural networks for ensuring that the physics part is used in a meaningful manner. To this end, we propose a regularized learning method that controls the effect of the trainable components and preserves the semantics of the physics-based latent variables as intended. We not only demonstrate generative performance improvements over a set of synthetic and real-world datasets, but we also show that we learn robust models that can consistently extrapolate beyond the training distribution in a meaningful manner. Moreover, we show that we can control the generative process in an interpretable manner.

We develop task scaling laws and model ladders to predict the individual task performance of pretrained language models (LMs) in the overtrained setting. Standard power laws for language modeling loss cannot accurately model task performance. Therefore, we leverage a two-step prediction approach: first use model and data size to predict a task-specific loss, and then use this task loss to predict task performance. We train a set of small-scale "ladder" models, collect data points to fit the parameterized functions of the two prediction steps, and make predictions for two target models: a 7B model trained to 4T tokens and a 13B model trained to 5T tokens. Training the ladder models only costs 1% of the compute used for the target models. On four multiple-choice tasks written in ranked classification format, we can predict the accuracy of both target models within 2 points of absolute error. We have higher prediction error on four other tasks (average absolute error 6.9) and find that these are often tasks with higher variance in task metrics. We also find that using less compute to train fewer ladder models tends to deteriorate predictions. Finally, we empirically show that our design choices and the two-step approach lead to superior performance in establishing scaling laws.

In a recent paper Juodis and Reese (2022) (JR) show that the application of the CD test proposed by Pesaran (2004) to residuals from panels with latent factors results in over-rejection. They propose a randomized test statistic to correct for over-rejection, and add a screening component to achieve power. This paper considers the same problem but from a different perspective, and shows that the standard CD test remains valid if the latent factors are weak in the sense the strength is less than half. In the case where latent factors are strong, we propose a bias-corrected version, CD*, which is shown to be asymptotically standard normal under the null of error cross-sectional independence and have power against network type alternatives. This result is shown to hold for pure latent factor models as well as for panel regression models with latent factors. The case where the errors are serially correlated is also considered. Small sample properties of the CD* test are investigated by Monte Carlo experiments and are shown to have the correct size for strong and weak factors as well as for Gaussian and non-Gaussian errors. In contrast, it is found that JR's test tends to over-reject in the case of panels with non-Gaussian errors, and has low power against spatial network alternatives. In an empirical application, using the CD* test, it is shown that there remains spatial error dependence in a panel data model for real house price changes across 377 Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the U.S., even after the effects of latent factors are filtered out.